Wednesday, April 28, 2010

SLIGHT RISK OF Severe Storms across OK,KS,IA

Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible small tornado outbreak on Thursday, 29th APRIL 2010

Severe Weather is possible tomorrow in parts from Southern OK to as far as Western IA. A very strong trough is digging in and setting over these areas creating massive upper atmospheric motion. Meanwhile at the surface level, strong low level jets or Nocturnal jets are expected to build over to 60kt at max over Upper KS and SRN IA.
The sufficient instability between 1500-2000J/Kg will favour for destabilisation and will make the updrafts pretty strong in a very good speed and directional shear. This storm will likely witenss impedement in convection due to cold air mass set or CAP. The CINH is pretty strong for KS-IA region and will likely created a CAP BUST till Afternoon and late evening. CAP is likely to move away due to forcing vertical air by night and will make storms nocturnal. REMEMBER NOCTURNAL TORNADOES AND STORM ARE DANGEROUS. THE oz NAM refers to maximum danger to KS and IA for tornadoes. Moisture seems to be fair and sufficient for convection. The 48hr digital FRONT forecast is indicating a TRI point or Frontal intersection in IA making it favourable for severe storms and tornado. For the next hours, the llj will strengthen to over 70kt in central KS to SE IA amidst a weak CAPE and helicities over 400 m2 s2 leading to HIGH EHI value. FLASH FLOODS IS POSSIBLE IN MID MS VALLEY REGION DUE TO COLLISION OF MOISTURE WITH MOVING WARM FRONT

Late THU to Friday, for OK area can be ACTIVE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 60kt at SFC, CAPE of 2000J/Kg,DEWPOINT to 60F will be favourable for convection in steep lapse rate.So it will be KS-IA first and then OK severe Storm possibility WITH TORNADO

TORNADOES are possible all the way and if I w;d have been a chaser a w'd have targeted EASTERN NE, WEST IA, and NORTHERN KS and targeted to set around NEBRASKA CITY,NE for the chase and then to OK
FRIDAY- One more time, AR-La and nearby areas will witness severe storms and another tornado outbreak possible

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