EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,
CONCERNING-- RE-UPDATE OF WEATHER IN NAGPUR IN THE COMING WEEK
March had been quite good for me with all the temperature estimation and the perfect relation between the models and the actual weather. The maximum recorded temperature at METD HQ. was 42.5 C which was close to my estimation of 43C. The update was targeted for APRIL 1 but is being released on APR 3.
A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMP. is possible in the coming week. The GFS models have been dominating with the temperature points touching above 42C right from Monday and the greatest possibility of 45C touch by Tuesday or Wednesday. My calculations have been indicating that like March, April will make history as the temp. can rise to max of 45C or above < 46-47C> withing this month only. For MAY, I don't find any rise in temp. above 47C and not like people say ITS HOT IN MARCH WHAT WILL BE IN MAY
Dry air is still being arriving into the southern plains on a large scale and getting heated much over Nagpur resulting in rise in temp. and dryness in all the air coloumns.
No significant western disturbance or sort of storms are affecting in the North which is permitting to rise the temperatures here in Nagpur. The reasons can be many for this. In aprli, many storms usually affect North which leads to spread of cool air mass towards south.
AS ON 3rd april--
At the 200mb level the flow of jets seem to be zonal or absolute zero deviation resulting in advancing of dry mass from Gulf countries.Over NRN parts of India, the flow seems to be barely 20kt which is very poor to advance cool air from EUROPE. Over Central India, the flow is pretty strong above 80kt which is surely responsible for relative dry weather. The present jet stream will leave India without spreading much Northwards by 6-7th April and will take some 1 week for the new one to arrive. This can cause 45C temp in the next week.
METD ISSUES ALERT FOR HOT TEMP. RIGHT FROM MONDAY,5TH APRIL TO 12TH APRIL AND REQUEST PEOPLE NOT TO LEAVE SHELTER AFTER 12PM TO 5PM. THIS WEEK CAN MAKE A RECORD FOR TEMP.
**** TUESDAY AND WED. CAN BE TOO HOT