STRONG CAP IN OKLAHOMA! SEVERE WEATHER NOW IN EVN

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

FOR THE SKEW-T RIGHT NOW IN NORMAN,OK, A VERY VERY STRONG CAP OF 9.2 IS EXISTING. CAP IS THE INVERSION IN PBL WHERE COOLER AIR SETS AT BOTTOM WITH WARM AIR ABOVE IT. THUS IT IS A STABLE LAYER WHICH PREVENTS CONVECTION AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE. TODAY< TUESDAY> WHERE FOR OK, ALL THE INGREDIENTS SEEMS TO GOOD WITH A VERY GOOD THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THIS CAP WILL RESTRICT THE ACTIVITY OF STORMS. THIS CAP MIGHT BREAK BY EVENING AND THEN STORMS WILL FIRE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMP. BUT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE DUE TO A VERY GOOD SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILE. IA-MO MODELS AND OK MODELS FOR LATER PART OF THE DAY ARE EQUALLY GOOD WITH TORNADO POTENTIALS. ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH CAP IS RETARTED IN OK, PERMITTING CONVECTION

THE LATEST RUC RUNS ARE CLEARLY INDICATING THAT NO SIGNIFICANT ACTION ATLEAST TILL 5PM EDT IN OK, KS. NOW IT IS ALMOST CLEAR THAT THE MODERATE CAP OF 3.0 IN IA WILL BREAK EASILY FAVOURING STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER FOR IA-NRN MO WITH A VERY GOOD SPEED/DIRECTION SHEARS. THE EHI IS 3,0+ FOR IA.

NOW I W'D PLAY FOR IA FIRST AND THEN EVN FOR OK