AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER
Concerning- Rains and thunderstorm in Nagpur on Friday,30th April 2010
AS per 12z,GFS RUN AND FORECAST METEOGRAM-
All Models have agreed with rainfall in Nagpur on Friday with a chance of thunderstorm building over Nagpur into late night hours.
METD WEATHER has issued a RAINFALL ALERT as per designated schedule on 12:00AM,30th april 2010
THE ALERT BEGINS AT 4:30PM WITH FIRST WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE WIND ADVISORY MEANS A WEATHER CONDITION IN WHICH HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW AT ABOUT 4:30-5PM WINDS UPTO 25.2KM/HR WSW WINDS WHICH is more or less the same as were on THU at 06:10PM will EXIST.
RAINS WILL START between 4:30-5:30PM and more likely by 5PM. <FINAL TIME WILL BE RE-VERIFIED VIA EMAILS AND SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES BY 11AM>
Thundershowers with lightning and thunder will start by 9pm.
DISCUSSION-
The ample 40mm precipitable water in atmosphere over Nagpur as being indicated by the GFS models will lead to formation of clouds <more than as it will be not visible>
The rising warm air due to surface heating will eventually push the vapour to cool air of -5C at 550mb. Clouds which will be all in HUMID environment as air is saturated with vapour will release water<RAIN> by 5PM due to cool air blowing and colliding with warm air in clouds and creating rains at the intersection. This mostly happens and the cool blowing wind which I have mentioned of 25km/hr will do the work. The rains will turn to CONVECTIVE RAINS By 9PM when T.storm builds in LACK CAPE area and is expected to be poor.
As it is poor thunderstorm it will release the HEAVIEST RAINFALL by 9-10pm which will continue with calm winds till midnight. After 12AM, Clouds will still be in SKY with another chance of rainfall on SAT by 9AM. THe good news is that, SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY SO FAR AFTER SUMMER HAS STARTED. THE MAXIMUM TEMP WILL BE AROUND 35C OR LESS AND MINIMUM OF 25C. THIS IS REALLY COOL TEMP AND ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HEALTH AS IT WILL BE 40C AND ABOVE ON SUNDAY!
METD WEATHER ISSUES THE FOLLOWING ALERTS
1] WIND ADVISORY FROM 4:30PM,FRIDAY TO 7:30PM,FRIDAY
2] RAINFALL ALERT FROM 4:30PM AND RAINS BY 5PM. THUNDERSTORM BY 9PM AND A VERY HEAVY RAIN. AVOID GOING OUT BETWEEN 9PM-11PM>
3] HEALTH ADVISORY STARTING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
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