Another Active tornado Probabilities in Argentina by Jan 4

METD Int,

Akshay Deoras- Lead Weather Investigator

Argentina Chase season from December 24 has been good with some tornado reported By Reed Timmer on 28th December 09

After that Argentina weather was general with some thunderstorms reported by INTA near south Of Santa Rosa

All the basic GFS models are indicating that there will be another severe weather outbreak soon by 4th jan in argentina mainly at the favored place between Mendoza and Santa Rosa.The 

500mb Geopotential Height, 12hr Height Change, & Vorticity models are indicating that an Upper Level Trough which is arriving from South Pacific Ocean will set over CHILE coast. This will pump Moisture towards southern side. The maps of 200mb which are close to the core of the Jet streams show that low 35-45 knot low level jets will be present there at the affected area. 

If we see the maps for humidity and CAPE they are also suggestive for severe weather.

The outbreak of severe weather will start probably on 3rd Jan as the Trough sets over CHILE and amplifies. 

Then When it is amplified further, IT will start moving in by 5th jan

So tornadic chance is STORNG till 6th Jan. 

 

THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE 500MB WIND HEIGHT FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN. HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED THING WHICH IS THE POSITIVE VORTICITY LOCATED NEAR CHILE. POSITIVE VORTICITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE STREAMLINES AT 200MB FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN 2010. 

HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED STREAMLINES NEAR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE.

• Purple shading indicates the speed of the winds at the 200 millibar level, in meters per second. This altitude is near the level of the core of the jet stream. So the tracks of the jet streams can be seen very clearly.
• The streamlines indicate the direction of flow of the wind, which is generally from west to east throughout most of the subtropics, mid- and high-latitudes.
• The color of the streamlines indicates a relative measure of divergence of the flow in the upper troposphere. Orange and red indicates strong divergence at upper levels, usually associated with strong vertical velocities in the middle troposphere, and severe weather/heavy rainfall.

If I had been a chaser, I would have targeted the area between Mendoza and Santa Rosa

This will be HUGE and YOu will get many tornadoes. 

We will track them through RADAR