Akshay Deoras- Lead Weather Investigator
Argentina Chase season from December 24 has been good with some tornado reported By Reed Timmer on 28th December 09
After that Argentina weather was general with some thunderstorms reported by INTA near south Of Santa Rosa
All the basic GFS models are indicating that there will be another severe weather outbreak soon by 4th jan in argentina mainly at the favored place between Mendoza and Santa Rosa.The
500mb Geopotential Height, 12hr Height Change, & Vorticity models are indicating that an Upper Level Trough which is arriving from South Pacific Ocean will set over CHILE coast. This will pump Moisture towards southern side. The maps of 200mb which are close to the core of the Jet streams show that low 35-45 knot low level jets will be present there at the affected area.
If we see the maps for humidity and CAPE they are also suggestive for severe weather.
The outbreak of severe weather will start probably on 3rd Jan as the Trough sets over CHILE and amplifies.
Then When it is amplified further, IT will start moving in by 5th jan
So tornadic chance is STORNG till 6th Jan.
THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE 500MB WIND HEIGHT FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN. HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED THING WHICH IS THE POSITIVE VORTICITY LOCATED NEAR CHILE. POSITIVE VORTICITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE STREAMLINES AT 200MB FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN 2010.
HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED STREAMLINES NEAR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE.