Saturday, January 16, 2010

Details about the Western Storm invasion

METD Weather


The present RUN of the GFS Long Range models are showing situations clearly than what I had seen day before Yesterday. WEDNESDAY will be a weather day for areas such as LOUISIANA,MISSISSIPPI SOUTH,ALBAMA SOUTH,PENSACOLA,FL. 
These areas will witness some big thunderstorms especially parts of Louisiana. 
I was earlier thinking for supercells in this area but the present run of GFS T+90hrs is impressive. 
The situation is that The instability,Moisture and HIGH surface dewpoints are limited in these states. 
Most of USA is gripped by winter and cool air but some pumping from the GUlf will add to warm air and convective moisture in the southern tips of these areas.
If we see the CAPE forecast,A large 2000J/Kg-1 will be present over parts such as Oklahoma East to South and Texas East to North also at the southern sides of states of LO,MISSISSIPPI.
At that time the Jets at the 850mb will be settling over Northeast Texas and Louisiana.
This will be the 40kt jets. This has to be the start of thunderstorm. As the system progresses,A new 50kt jet appears over MISSISSIPPI. This has the instability as well present in the surrounding. 
This is also favourable. But the best 50kt jets are located little in the interior and as you move inside towards the land from the coast,The energy components decreases. So the activity remains confined to the coast. 
SO there will be thunderstorms in the areas mentioned above and probably  capable to produce supercells. Tornado chance however is low but still I can tell with surely when RUC models come into view.
coastal flood warnings will be issued 

The 5 to 7 inches of rain that parts of western Washington received Friday will pale in comparison to the rainfall that much of California and parts of Arizona will see in the upcoming week.

The south-facing slopes of the hills and mountains of Southern California may locally be doused with as much as 8 to 20 inches of rain. Dangerous, perhaps deadly, flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in the burn areas.

Snow will be measured by the several yards in the Sierra and by the yard across the mountains of Arizona.

Strong and potentially damaging winds will accompany the storms as they rake the Southwest.

Between storms there will be a large area of dangerous dense fog and even freezing fog in the Midwest. Use extreme caution driving overnight into early Sunday due to the low visibilities and icy glazed roads and highways from eastern Kansas to Missouri to central Illinois.

Also due to some significant surface jets,waves near california will be 30ft.

Stay tuned for updates

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