Monday, January 4, 2010

Argentina to witness many tornadoes or supercells on 5th Jan

AKshay Deoras

The 500mb forecast for 00z 5th jan is impressive. This shows a massive
intensified trough setting over CHILE. In my previous forecasting I
had made it clear that the outbreak would be by 4th jan but now it
seems that 5th Jan would be better.
On 4th jan,The trough will start amplification at CHILE coast which
will start the activity.
But the real show comes on 5th when the upper system and lower system
interacts in the presence of instability and Humidity resulting in the
SURE formation of supercells and further to Tornadoes.
Mendoza would be a better place to begin with. The supercells will
form towards the South East of mendoza and might be traced by the
Radars at Santa Rosa.

when we track severe weather up in Usa, we see the troughs over the
land because USA has a vast area. Unlikely In Argentina the main
principle has to be applied
Generally the greatest lift from the trough is before it comes over
the Severe weather area.
This setup is seen in Argentina on 5th where the trough will pump
moisture and the 850mb jets there will interact and due to winds at
850mb the jets will move south

CAPE values are impressive and high humidity is also available
Last day, there were supercells in San Rafael and also to the south of
Santa Rosa.
The supercells were strong and produced hails likely but no tornadoes.
This was due to unseasonable 35-40knot jets at 850mb

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