Monday, January 11, 2010

Argentina tornado outbreak possible at afternoon on 11th Jan

Akshay Deoras

This is the third time, that I am forecasting for Argentina. 
The first forecasting was before 2009 ended. That forecasting had tornadoes. Then I forecasted on 5th Jan but there were supercells as actual trough was not present over the land. It was more pumping action. But the time has come to forecast something HUGE.
the 11jan GFS is showing that a powerful trough is setting over areas of santa rosa. This trough is favoured by CAPE which is also present. CAPE values are 2500J/Kg which indicate another chance of Supercells. The sea level pressure maps are indicating that it will be intense low pressure. This outbreak is possible from Afternoon as local Weather stations are indicating 50% chances of T.storm after 12pm. 
This has to be the best setup till now into this chase season which might show us tornadoes....
also there is  strong divergence at upper levels which is  usually associated with strong vertical velocities in the middle troposphere, and severe weather/heavy rainfall.

We will track the weather and let you know

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