INTERESTING WEATHER TO HAPPEN IN USA BY THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IN LOUSIANA
It feels great to be back seeing USA models after seeing Argentinan pattern.
At present the weather in USA seems to good and enjoyable except for few states.
yesterday a small low pressure system was hovering over California coastal regions. Also Amazing low level jets of 40 knots resulted in Surfs near California coast and people like John Hallen of SevereWarningSystems.com enjoyed surfs which were more than 23m.
In a few days,90 hrs from now,A large system of low pressure will hit the USA West coast. The 300mb GFS shows intense jets of 160kt. This trough will be digging in and mainly aimed towards the south. As it progresses probably after 138hrs from now,we will be having low level jets at the 850mb near california where the winds are expected to be of 30kt. This will create HUGE surfs and people like JH will get a good chance to surf.At the same time, There will be another low level jet of 40kt over Lousiana coast. I know it is not enough to talk for supercells.
At the same time a high pressure located near usa atlantic gulf will pump instability towards USA southern region especially to lousiana. This will make high dewpoints and CAPE of 2000J/Kg. This value is Large on the scale but you require more cape upto 3000J/Kg for Hails. But I have seen tornado touchdown at the cape of 2000J/Kg also.
Favoured by Relative Humidity of 90%.
I can say that there will be thunderstorms capable of producing supercells.
The air temperature stands to 70F and I can say Winter is not a barrier.
Similarly, Rains will come and there might be a coastal flood warning. At present I am looking GFS FORECAST and when it comes to NAM I will get the favoured EHI index which will tell a lot.
It seems there will be supercells as everything is favourable.