SEVERE WEATHER TO HAPPEN TODAY AT NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOME PARTS OF TENNESSEE.

METD WEATHER

USA

AKSHAY DEORAS

THIS SURELY IS GOING TO BE HISTORY. THERE HAVE BEEN 14 TORNADOES IN USA LAST DAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. I HAD FORECASTED IT ON FRIDAY JUST THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE 2-3 TORNADOES ONLY. AFTER HAPPENING OF CALIFORNIA TORNADOES, I WAS CONVINCED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TORNADOES UPTO 5-6 IN NUMBER. LAST DAY WHEN IT WAS 1 AM IN USA,SPC WAVED OFF ALL THE TORNADO POSSIBILITIES AND AT INSTANT BY AFTERNOON,THERE WAS AN OUTBREAK.

IT ALL STARTED IN THE AFTERNOON IN USA. UNFORTUNATELY IT WAS NIGHT FOR ME IN INDIA. 

THE INTENSE 50KT JETS WERE PRESENT MAINLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

THE CAPE WAS FAVORABLE. AND IT WAS A RESULT OF THE EL NINO WINTER PATTERN

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The jet streak is arriving a little late for robust diurnal convection today, and the best low-level wind shear will reside over East Texas into Louisiana, especially overnight tonight when the LLJ really gets cranking.  The RUC model is showing convective intiation along the cold front in North Central Texas between 4 and 5 pm CST, with an increasing threat for supercells overnight tonight well to the south and east of the Cold front over Southeast Texas into Louisiana as the jet streak plows east.  The biggest tornado threat over the South-central U.S. will be overnight tonight in extreme southeast TX into LA, between 00 and 06 UTC, when 0-1 km EHI values will be approaching the 2-3 range as the LLJ intensifies and low-level moisture continues to increase. ""

THIS WAS THE PATTERN YESTERDAY. IT CREATED 14 TORNADOES AND MANY DAMAGING HAILS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS WELL..

SPC HAD ISSUED MANY MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND I AM SURE IT MUST HAVE BEEN A LONG NIGHT FOR THE PEOPLE LIVING THERE. AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM APPROACHES AHEAD TOWARDS FLORIDA ANOTHER THREAT STANDS UP.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE IN ALL THIS IS REGARDING EL-NINO. EL-NINO IS A TERM USED TO DESCRIBE THE SEA SURFACE TEMP.WHICH ARE UNUSUAL AND  GREATER THAN THE NORMAL VALUE. 

AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES AHEAD, IT HAS 5% CHANCE OF CREATING TORNADO OVER NOTH TENNEESE,ALBAMA,MISSISSIPPI....

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TODAY THE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARDS NORTH OF ALBAMA,MISSISSIPPI IN THE STATE OF PENNESSE.

I AM TALKING ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL JETS. THE CURRENT 40KT JETS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SPLIT INTO FEW JETS WHICH WILL TAKE AIM ON PENNESSE AND FLORIDA AREA.AS THE DAY PASSES THESE JETS WILL CONVERT INTO INTENSE 50KT JET.

THE BEST WIND SHEARS WILL BE WITHIN 9 HRS THAT IS TOWARDS THE EVENING. AS THE SHEARS COME IN THE AREA OF 60F DEWPOINTS AND A WARM FRONT ARRIVAL. THE ENVIRONMENT BY THAT TIME WILL BE DE-STABILIZED FAVOURING FOR TORNADOES. THE EHI<0-1> KM SHOWS VALUE OF 3 JUST OFF THE SHORE OF FLORIDA.THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL COME THE WARM FRONT.SPC HAS ISSUED THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANOTHER 5% CHANCE IS OF TORNADOES IN THE WEST

WE WILL TRACK THE WEATHER AND I WILL MAKE AN UPDATE AFTER 12 HRS..