2013 INDIAN MONSOON FORECAST ( PUBLIC VERSION)

Dear Readers, 
Greetings! 

As a part of the annual forecast of the Indian Monsoon (IndiMO) since 2010, METD WEATHER brings the 2013 Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO ). The Summer Monsoon forecast is prepared using multiple parameters which include the Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO),El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their inter relation. Its widely observed that the Indian Summer Monsoon is largely affected by the atmospheric patterns such as the Madden Julian Oscillation which is directly linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Indian Ocean Dipole also plays some role in the strength of the monsoon current and subsequently affects the quantum of the monsoon rainfall. We will be using the IOD-MJO inter-relation parameter which was derived in 2012 Indian Monsoon Forecast (IndiMO 1) this year. 

To give a better idea about the monsoon, a portion from the 2011,2012 IndiMO Part 1 is being added. To help more in understanding, the forecast will be issued in two versions which includes a technical version and a public version. Public version is all about the conclusions explained in simple words for the readers. 

METD WEATHER has all the rights reserved for this forecast and the matter is (C) 2013 METD WEATHER. 

Apologies for the delay!

A.Deoras

REGION WISE FORECAST








1) SOUTHERN INDIA 

The IOD which is expected to be more towards weakly negative will lead to dry phase development which may reduce the rainfall amount in this area. However, due to favoured conditions, monsoon will follow the dates. The rainfall amounts shall increase from July. 

Region will witness " DEFICIENT" Rainfall with around 85% NORMAL RAIN.



2) Western India

The same conditions shall apply for Western India also as if the MJO activity remains less, monsoon winds shall be weak in this region.Also the arabian sea low pressure system will shape up which will cause the monsoon to be slightly delayed here leading to a less June month rainfall (as compared against the normal). However, it has been observed that the monsoon current as well as the quantum intensifies in later July/August which ultimately balances the deficit. 

The region will witness "SLIGHTLY DEFICIENT" rainfall around 85% of normal rainfall.



3) Northern India

The region can expect good rainfall unlike the other areas. The primary reason seems to be the wind patterns expected. The region will receive some rains from the Disturbances which may have a southernly dip than normal. This factor was observed in April month also when greater than normal thunderstorm activity was reported across North-East India as the trough dug more southward and brought rains. 

Aperiodic rainfall shall be there with 85% NORMAL and 15% DEFICIENT CONDITIONS



4) North East India

NE India will witness EXCESS Monsoon with the primary reason expected to be the less effective Bay of Bengal current.

Expected 100-105% OF THE NORMAL RAINS 


5) East India

Region shall witness NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY EXCESS MONSOON CONDITION. 

Expected 95% NORMAL


6) Central India

If one assumes the weak monsoon current due to negative IOD and dry MJO, Central India will have a less than normal rains but the rainfall due to low pressure systems will balance the deficit hence the resultant will be NORMAL RAINFALL 

rainfall will be 90% NORMAL and 10% DEFICIENT. 



7) Andaman and Nicobar Is. 

Normal rainfall is expected in this region around 95% of the normal rainfall. 


8) Lakshadweep and surrounding

Considering the expected strength of Monsoon current and Ekman Drift this region will witness deficient rainfall 


80% NORMAL

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MONSOON ONSET DATES (as per METD WEATHER'S NORMS)





















-***  NICOBAR ISLANDS  AND ANDAMAN ISLANDS ( INCLUDING LITTLE NICOBAR,GREAT NICOBAR,KATCHAL,NANCOWRY ISLANDS AND VICINITY) - MONSOON HAS SET






** PRE MONSOON RAINS WILL INITIATE ACROSS SRI LANKA, SOUTHERN,WESTERN KERALA,TAMIL NADU AROUND THIS MONTH END




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SRI LANKA AROUND 1-2ND JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SOUTHERN INDIA LIKE KERALA, TAMIL NADU AND SOUTHERN MIZORAM AROUND 1-3RD JUNE 2013 




*** LAKSHADWEEP BY 6-7TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL COVER NORTH EAST INDIA ( 7 SISTER STATES) BY 10TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH CENTRAL KARNATAKA AND MOST OF ANDHRA PRADESH  AROUND 10TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SOUTHERN,CENTRAL,WESTERN MAHARASHTRA AROUND 15-17 JUNE 2013




*** IT SHALL COVER MUMBAI BY 16/17TH JUNE 2013




***NORTHERN MAHARASHTRA,SOUTHERN  MADHYA PRADESH, CENTRAL GUJARAT,CHATTISGARH ( ALMOST ENTIRE) AND VICINITY BY 21ST JUNE 2013




MONSOON WILL ARRIVE IN NAGPUR ON 19/20TH JUNE 2013 (MEANINGFUL RAINS IN JULY HOWEVER)




*** NORTH INDIA PORTIONS TILL NEW DELHI BY 29TH JUNE 2013 AND PUNJAB AND FURTHER NORTH INDIA AFTERWARDS ( AROUND 3RD JULY OR SO)




*** IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE ARABIAN SEA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM I.E ITS POSITION AND INTENSITY 







*** FORECAST CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS. SO PEOPLE MUST FOLLOW UPDATES***











 Inference 



* METD WEATHER ESTIMATES THAT THE SUMMER MONSOON FOR INDIA IN 2013 (01ST JUNE - 30TH SEPTEMBER) WILL BE AROUND 90% NORMAL AND 10% DEFICIENT (IMD VALUE MAY REACH TO 95% NORMAL I.E DEPARTURE OF -5%)



* THE SUMMER MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL BE ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO 2012 YEAR'S MONSOON



* NEUTRAL EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, NEGATIVE INDIAN OCEAN 

DIPOLE AND LACK OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (WITH MORE DRY PHASE) SHALL REDUCE THE RAINFALL.



* SOUTHERN AND WESTERN,NORTHERN INDIA SHALL GET MORE DEFICIENT RAIN AS COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS. THE LOWEST MAY BE EXPECTED IN LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND AROUND.



* NORTH EAST INDIA WILL GET EXCESS RAINFALL ALONG WITH EAST INDIA GETTING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCESS RAINFALL.



*MONSOON WILL BE WEAK IN JUNE



* LESSER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHALL AFFECT THIS YEAR PARTICULARLY IN ARABIAN SEA. 



* INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) SHALL REMAIN NEGATIVE ( MONTH WISE) THROUGHOUT THE SEASON. 



* ENSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD



* MJO INTERFERENCE SHALL BE WEAK IN BOTH THE PHASES. MORE DRY EVENTS EXPECTED

WILL JULY 2012 RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CITIZENS OF INDIA??

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

WILL THE MONSOON RAINFALL REACH IN TIME TO AVOID THE WATER DEFICIENCY???


* AROUND 53.5% OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL TILL NOW IN MAHARASHTRA THIS MONTH


* SIXTEEN DISTRICTS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 50% RAINFALL IN MAHARASHTRA


* 10% WATER CUT IN MUMBAI FROM JULY 1 2012


* WATER STORAGE IN THE 366 IRRIGATION PROJECTS OF NAGPUR IS 13% ONLY (AS CONSIDERED ON 26TH JUNE 2012)


* WATER SUPPLY TO PUNE CITY LIKELY TO BE IN A GOOD SHAPE TILL 15TH JULY 2012 ONLY. 


* AGRICULTURE GETTING AFFECTED DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL




Be it agriculture or water level situation, the SW Monsoon is continuing to horrify the citizens of many areas like interior southern India, Central India and the worst for Northern India as well including places like Gujarat etc.

The question arises that will the rainfall be sufficient atleast in the first 15 days of July 2012?

Lets discuss the expected conditions!

The Indian Ocean Dipole which is directly affecting the Indian Monsoon has reached in a very low state ( Negative neutral stage). The DMI ( Dipole Mode Index) in the week 18th June-24th June was -0.09. The DMI has been falling towards neutral and negative since the monsoon commenced in India.

        PERIOD                 DMI

20120528,20120603, 0.78
20120604,20120610, 0.17
20120611,20120617, 0.05
20120618,20120624, -0.09

The above DMI plot clearly shows how good the IOD was till 03rd June 2012 with a value of 0.78. 

A more negative DMI will mean more cooler water in the Western Arabian Sea which means a less favorable conditions for the convection and subsequent the monsoon current ( Somali Current). For a very good monsoon phase ( intensity and progress), the IOD has to be positive. 

The forecasts are indicating that the IOD will have a neutral tendency in July 2012 with the POAMA Model determining a 66.7% of likelyhood. 

Such a neutral IOD is also unfavorable for the monsoon rainfall ( ALL MONSOON RAINFALL MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE OF THE ARABIAN SEA BRANCH). The IOD swings between the negative neutral to positive neutral many times in this phase. 

This also affects the Madden Julian Oscillation as a neutral condition will result in a very less interference of the Wet phase of the MJO and also the frequency leading to less rain conditions. 

If the POAMA model is to be believed then the rainfall scenario in India ( Excluding NE India) for July 2012 ( Atleast till Mid July) will likely continue to be the same or slightly improved .In short, this trend of IOD will not assist in much rainfall and hence July 2012 ( Atleast till Mid) may also continue to see a more or less June 2012 situation with slight improvement. The net rainfall is also expected to BE LESS THAN AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NATION BUT IMPROVED THAN JUNE 2012

The IOD also has some interim positive values like the one in early June 2012 but the value will be less leading to less than normal rainfall in July as well. 

The POAMA models indicate that the IOD will be at the Positive stage in Aug and Sept 2012. This can bring late monsoon month's rainfall. 

CENTRAL INDIA RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR AGRICULTURE:

The anticipated low pressure at lower levels in the Bay of Bengal doesn't seem to be in a good shape now. The forecast models also have downgraded the likelyhood of generation of a significant low pressure region. Though a weak low pressure or the so called upper air circulation is still expected to pass through Central India. 

However, the rainfall which has earlier expected to be very heavy and highly favorable for the sowing of the Kharif Crop in the region seems to be reduced. The forecast models do indicate that there will be increased in the moisture levels from around 30th June across the region with good rainfall chance during the period and expected to be a bit significant around 2nd July. As of today, it seems that a marginal sowing can be possible around 1st July or so but the risk factor hasn't vanished. The effect shall go away after 4th July or around with aperiodic rainfall again which can make the survival of the seeds difficult. 

Thus, its a challenging situation as the July 2012 rainfall ( atleast till Mid July) doesn't look impressive for the early July 2012 sowing. If one decides to wait till July end then it will be too late!

NORTH INDIA MONSOON ONSET

North India continues to wait for the monsoon. It appears that the first few rainfall can happen around 7-10th July 2012 in the region. Till that period, the weather will be dry itself. 

Active Low pressure brings rainfall in Central India.

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

21st June 2012,
1130PM IST
Nagpur-

Rainfall continued almost for the entire day in Central India including Nagpur. The rainfall was very heavy towards the Chattisgarh region. As was mentioned in the earlier posts, the low pressure region at the lower atmospheric profiles currently somewhere NW of Jharkhand-MP region was responsible for the increased moisture in the region causing the rainfall which has been non convective in the Maharashtra side. The Monsoon current or the Somali Current continues to remain weak considering the IOD DMI of around 0.05.

The GFS models continue to indicate that the surface low pressure will be moving NW and fizzing out as it cuts off from the 850mb low over Eastern India. As this activity happens, there will be a decrease in the rainfall in Central India though mostly cloudy weather can be expected on Friday considering the low position.

The break monsoon situation seems to be likely for the Central India starting from around 24th June or so.

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Rest of India-

Heavy rainfall shall continue in the Eastern parts adjoining Maharashtra atleast on 22nd June. Though the rainfall rate can be low but the rainfall accumulation seems to be very good. Northern India is still continuing to wait for the monsoon. The maximum temperature in New Delhi today was 43C with dry winds likely to be blowing in the Northern India.
The monsoon seems to be progressing there in July itself and hence I shall not be changing the previous forecasts for the region regarding the monsoon onset including Sindh region.

IMD has advanced the Northern Limits of the monsoon today. The Northern limits as per them covers Eastern Uttar Pradesh,Eastern Madhya Pradesh also.

The break monsoon situation for the interior parts of India,Central India is very likely from around 25-26th June 2012.

In the Western India, rainfall was less today. The weather in these areas can be expected to remain almost the same with much of high heat indices leading to a bit uncomfortable conditions.

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METD WEATHER MONSOON ONSET NORTHERN LIMITS

The last update on the METD WEATHER monsoon onsets was of Mumbai region. The next major advancement was expected to be of Nagpur and Central India on/by 19th June 2012. However as the conditions required weren't satisfied, the monsoon onset wasn't considered. The irregular rainfall pattern ( all convective) in Central India even were not favorable for the onset.

Though all the parameters required for the declaration of the monsoon till Central Madhya Pradesh are getting satisfied, the break monsoon situation seems to be a worrying factor. Nevertheless, the rainfall activity in this region will be measured and monitored on 22nd June and any major decision ( if any) regarding the further advancement of the monsoon shall be taken on Saturday,23rd June 2012 keeping in mind the 48hr parameters pattern.

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THE READERS/FANS OF METD WEATHER AND AKG CAN VOTE ME IF THEY WISH. HERE IS THE INSTRUCTION BELOW FOR THE VOTING

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Will SW Monsoon reach Central India on time?

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

In the IndiMO II, METD WEATHER had issued 19th June 2012 as the monsoon onset date for Nagpur and a general of 14th-19th June 2012 for the Central India. The monsoon however as mentioned in the previous posts is very slow and almost stalled which is making this decision difficult

METD WEATHER CONDITIONS for Monsoon onset--

1] MONSOON

A) - HEAVY RAINS

THE MONSOON RAINFALL OR THE ONSET OF MONSOON IS CONSIDERED ON THAT DAY WHEN THERE ARE HEAVY RAINS ( *** NOT APPLICABLE FOR RAINFALL DUE TO ANY CYCLONE LANDFALL***). 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MUST BE MORE THAN 5mm

*** CONVECTIVE RAIN AFTER SUNNY MORNING SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED AS MONSOON RAINS***

B)- WINDS

THE WINDS ( SURFACE-500MB) MUST BE FROM SOUTH-WEST ATLEAST FOR 48HRS AND HAVING INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 10KT IN ALL LEVEL. 

( WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST FOR A DAY ARE NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS MONSOON WINDS) 

C) MOISTURE

***SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MUST BE GREATER THAN 60% ATLEAST FOR 48HRS 

*** THERE MUST BE A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERE IN LAYERS 500MB-900MB ATLEAST FOR 48HRS WITH SATURATION ***

D) AIR PRESSURE

*** SURFACE AIR PRESSURE IN A REGION ( NOT APPLICABLE FOR HILLY REGION) SHALL BE BELOW 1006 MB CONSECUTIVELY FOR 2-3 DAYS. SINCE LESS PRESSURE REGION INDICATES LOCALITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

*** ANY PERIOD WHEN SURFACE AIR PRESSURE GOES ABOVE THE LIMIT SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET*** 

E) TEMPERATURE

*** SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE MUST DROP TO 35C OR BELOW AFTER PRECIPITATION

*** TEMPERATURE SHALL BE MAINTAINED IN THE MAXIMUM LIMIT AS 35C ( MAX TEMP) ATLEAST FOR 48-72HRS. 

*** TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE LIMIT SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET***

F) CLOUDING

*** DUE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE,CLOUDING SHALL BE PRESENT IN THE REGION 

*** OVERCAST CONDITION ATLEAST FOR 24HRS CONTINUOUSLY

ANY CLEAR WEATHER DAY WITH ALL THE ABOVE CONDITION POSITIVE ( EXCLUDING RAINFALL) SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED FOR MONSOON ONSET

G) 850MB MOISTURE TRACK FOR NORTHERN LIMITS OF MONSOON

THE NORTHERN LIMITS OF MONSOON SHALL BE ADVANCED ONLY WHEN 850MB MAP SHOWS MOISTURE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREATER THAN 60% AND BEING MAINTAINED FOR 2-3 DAYS

THE ABOVE ARE THE CONDITIONS WHICH METD WEATHER HAS BEEN CONSIDERING SINCE LAST 3 YEARS AND REGARD AS THE CORRECT MEASURES TO DETERMINE MONSOON ONSET. 

THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPT NORMS ARE DIFFERENT AND HAVE NO CONNECTION TO THE DATES FORECASTED BY METD WEATHER 

Present conditions in Central India-

1) Rains ( IMD Nagpur)

As can be seen from the rainfall on 16th June evening till 1000hrs of 17th June, Jabalpur in M.P has got the heaviest rainfall of 75.7mm followed by Chadrapur in Maharashtra of 44mm and Nagpur getting 11.8mm rainfall. 

Still heavy rains weren't reported for more than half of the stations above. 

2) Winds-

The peak winds in Nagpur since 16th June were around 20km/hr mostly from West. The upper air winds also are satisfying the conditions. 

3) Moisture- 

The Surface Relative Humidity (lowest) was 35% at Nagpur at 0530PM on 16th June. This definitely doesn't fit into the criteria of the monsoon onset.

4) Air Pressure at the surface

The mean air pressure was around 1002mb since 16th May. The pressure is being maintained since 24hrs. 

5) Clouding- 

The overall cloud cover falls in the Mostly Cloudy with today being the same in Nagpur. 

6) SFC temperature

The surface air temp of Nagpur on 16th June was around 38.2C which violates the norms

The 850mb shows some moisture in the region. 

If these conditions ( except temp,moisture) are favorable then why isn't METD WEATHER declaring the onset???

Here is the latest (00z,17th June) GFS Nagpur Meteogram. The topmost profile shows the atmospheric moisture till 25th June. As can be seen that the amount of moisture in the region is strongly decreasing from around 18th-19th June. The 2m RH plot also shows a strong decrease in the moisture amounts with absolutely no rainfall expected from 20th June onwards. 

If METD WEATHER declares the onset of Monsoon in the region then the immediate dry phase will take over with no rains. The parameters also aren't expected to remain consistent as a result the change of monsoon onset on 19th June is very low...... 

Abhijit Modak from Badlapur city,Maharashtra sends these photos taken today (17th June 2012). Badlapur is an Extended Central Line Suburb of Mumbai in Thane District.  . These photos clearly show the heavy rains in the region.  

Break Monsoon conditions likely. Significant effect on Kharif Crops expected

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Indian Summer Monsoon particularly the Arabian Sea branch still continues its stalled approach this year. The extended GFS forecast ( consistent runs ) are indicating decreasing moisture content at the lower atmospheric profiles esp at the 850mb

Above- the 144hr GFS ( 12z,15th June Int) of 20th June shows "Nearly SAME" moisture levels across India ( Except North East India). This is a classical situation which depicts the weak monsoon winds or the Somali Current. As the current travels from the West,South-West and is of less intensity, it can't survive the interiors and hence the moisture deposition always remain higher for the Western Coast and relatively drier in the Central and interior regions. While the Bay of Bengal Branch continues to be doing good.

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ( Slightly Neutral) and Dry Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) responsible- 

CORRECTION- THE DMI VALUE TILL 10TH JUNE ( FROM 4TH JUNE 2012) IS +0.17 AND NOT +0.57 AS WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. 


           DATE              DMI

20120521,20120527,0.55
20120528,20120603,0.78
20120604,20120610,0.17

As can be seen from the above DMI indices, the IOD was much positive during end of May till 3rd June which caused a robust advance of the monsoon in someparts of India like Anadaman and Nicobar Is,North East India but in the week ending at 10th June, the DMI has fall down to 0.17. 

A positive DMI or Indian Ocean Dipole means warmer than normal sea surface temperature in the Western Indian Ocean ( Arabian Sea) than the Eastern which fuels the MJO ( which turns wet phase) and brings more rains in India. The slow and stalled monsoon is just due to this reason..

Above- The MJO EWP models showing a very significant dry phase over India ( As of 15th June) indicated by the pinkish shade region near the Southern Bay of Bengal. These are the two primary reasons causing the monsoon to be weak. 

Central India rainfall -

The above IR imagery of India of 1730z ( UTC) of 16th June shows good clouding across Central India with some convective signatures. Widespread Rainfall (Convective)  happened today in Nagpur during the evening hours. Though METD WEATHER didn't record the data but the rainfall accumulation seems near to 10mm at the Headquarters. This increased rainfall activity/clouding is due to an upsurge in the moisture in this area formed due to the movement of an upper level low form the East. The moisture will be reducing within 48hrs. 

The atmospheric stability evidently seems to be less on 16th June in Nagpur for strong convection. 

As the moisture contents decrease, the weather is expected to open up with the decrease in the rainfall ( Break Monsoon conditions). 

North East India shall continue to get good rainfall meanwhile ( Projected till 144hr from 12z,15th June)

50% LESS RAINFALL IN THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE

The rainfall amounts have been almost 50% less in a period June 7-13. The nationwide rainfall recorded was around 15.3mm as against the 30.6mm which IMD consideres average. The slow monsoon also has delayed the Kharif Crop sowing. 

If the GFS is to be believed, the monsoon still will not be strong in June for all the states ( excluding North East India) so conditions required for the sowing of Kharif Crop like good rains ( continuous) for some days will not be available. 

In Central India also the rainfall amounts will decrease considerably from 18-19th June ( Average) which will make the sowing difficult. Thus the agriculture and subsequent economy seems to be getting a blow this month. 

The North India also continues to wait for the monsoon and continues to heat up. Allahabad recorded consistently over 45C today i.e a temperature of about 46C,Delhi 43C.....

Atleast till 27th June, I don't see any monsoon movement in the Northern parts of the nation so it appears that it will take July for the monsoon to reach there. 

FLOODING POTENTIALS IN ASSAM

As per the news reports, around 50,000 people have been affected in Assam due to constant heavy rains leading to a rise in the water level of River Brahmaputra. The water-level of the Brahmaputra was rising at Dibrugarh, Nimatighat in Jorhat, Tezpur and Dhubri, while its tributaries Buridihing, Subansiri, Dikhow, Dhansiri, Jia Bharali and Kopili were also maintaining a steady rise.

The flood affected districts include Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Dibrugarh, Kamrup (Rural), Baksa, Udalguri, Sonitpur, Nagaon and Dhubri along with Hailakandi in the Barak Valley.

Nearly 50,000 people have been affected by the current wave of floods, while road communication was affected in many part of these districts, they said .

The worst affected areas are Naoboicha and Narayanpur revenue circles in Lakhimpur, Jonai, Dhemaji and Sissibargaon circles in Dhemaji, Gohpur in Sonitpur, Algapur in Hailakandi, Goreswar, Salbari and areas adjoining Bhutan in Baksa districts, the sources added.

Rainfall activity seems to be high for this region which can elevate the flooding potentials.... 

STALLED Monsoon in India

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Indian Summer Monsoon marked timings as per the METD WEATHER IndiMO but not 100%.... As was expected,the monsoon is very much passive in June and the progress is very slow.

The latest IMD Monsoon Advance map shows the slow movement feature.Also the low pressure area formed in the Arabian Sea in the late May into June deflected the winds and made much from the west due to which the monsoon movement this year is much more rapid and northwards along the Western Coast as compared to the Southern India. The Bay of Bengal branch is progressing very well.

The so called monsoon current or the Somali current is also weak right now with the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation in progress. As was mentioned in the IndiMO I, the MJO is directly associated with the IOD ( Indian Ocean Dipole). When the IOD is positive, enhanced wet phase of the MJO happens which brings more rainfall across India and boosts the monsoon as well.

As seen from this observed and estimated DMI ( Dipole Mode Index), the IOD for May end to June is much towards the negative or neutral. The last week value was +0.17 which is the neutral. As the IOD is turning to neutral, I do estimate that the intensity of the dry and the west phase will be equal now as against the high intensity of the dry phase during the negative event which was happening now. The DMI forecast do confirm that the DMI will turn to the positive side in the July-August period which one can consider favorable for the monsoon rainfall.

Whats next????



As can be seen from the 144hr 850mb GFS, there is much improvement in the moisture for the western belt only which starts from Southern India. Parts like Central India, Eastern parts of Central Southern India will still be deficient in terms of the moisture which includes many cities like Chennai,Bangalore,Hyderabad,Nagpur etc..

This clarifies that the Monsoon IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED IN THE CENTRAL INDIA AND
SUBSEQUENTLY IN THE NORTHERN INDIA,SINDH AREAS ALSO.
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN INDIA ALSO WILL EXPERIENCE DEFICIENT RAINS WHICH CAN BE TILL 20TH JUNE ATLEAST.

THE SW MONSOON WHICH EARLIER WAS EXPECTED TO REACH NAGPUR BY 19TH JUNE 2012 WILL BE DELAYED THIS YEAR THOUGH THE 850MB MOISTURE REACHES. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY ( HEAVY RAIN) WHICH IS A METD WEATHER MONSOON ONSET NORM SEEMS TO BE VIOLATED ON 19TH JUNE.

OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN JULY AND AUGUST...

2012 Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO) Part I ( PUBLIC VERSION)

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

16TH MAY 2012
MUSCAT,OMAN

2012 INDIAN MONSOON FORECAST ( PUBLIC VERSION) 

FROM THE DESK-


***METD WEATHER COMPLETES 1,00,000 PAGEVIEWS ON 14TH MAY 2012 SINCE MAY 2010. 


Dear Readers, 
As a part of the annual forecast of the Indian Monsoon (IndiMO) since 2010, METD WEATHER brings you the 2012 Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO I) PUBLIC VERSION. The Summer Monsoon forecast is prepared using multiple parameters which include the Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO),El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their inter relation. Its widely observed that the Indian Summer Monsoon is largely affected by the atmospheric patterns such as the Madden Julian Oscillation which is directly linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Indian Ocean Dipole also plays some role in the strength of the monsoon current and subsequently affects the quantum of the monsoon rainfall. 


 Public version is all about the conclusions explained in simple words for the readers WITH THE HELP FROM THE KEYWORDS (BOTTOM). 


METD WEATHER has all the rights reserved for this forecast and the matter is (C) 2012 METD WEATHER. 


A.Deoras

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The June rainfall pattern across India where the monsoon reaches shall be 

MOSTLY NORMAL (85% NORMAL EXPECTED) 

Thus for the monsoon season, NEUTRAL ENSO activity, Weak Positive IOD and lesser interference of MJO is expected. 

The Ekman Drift will play a significant role in deciding the rainfall amount in this region. The Great Whirl also will play a significant role as the MJO is expected to be more towards a DRY PHASE resulting in the amount of rains.

Concluding these factors, it appears that for India, the overall ( quantum) of 2012 Summer Monsoon will 

be "SLIGHT DEFICIENT" WITH THE QUANTUM ANOMALY FOR THE SEASON EXPECTED TO BE - 

~ 85% NORMAL 

~ 15% DEFICIENT 

REGION WISE FORECAST- 

1) SOUTHERN INDIA 

The IOD which is expected to be more towards weakly negative will lead to dry phase development which may reduce the rainfall amount in this area. A Slow Monsoon phase shall be likely in June due to no MJO activity. The rainfall amounts shall increase from July. 

Region will witness " DEFICIENT" Rainfall with around 75% NORMAL RAIN and 25% DEFICIENT

2) Western India

The same conditions shall apply for Western India also as if the MJO activity remains less, monsoon winds shall be weak in this region. The rainfall pattern is expected to be slow in June month with monsoon making a slow entry. The rainfall amounts shall revive at the mid monsoon stage onwards when a Positive IOD consistency will develop

The region will witness "DEFICIENT" rainfall around 65% to 70% NORMAL and 35-40% DEFICIENT 

3) Northern India

The region can expect good rainfall unlike the other areas. The primary reason seems to be the wind patterns expected. The region will receive some rains from the Western Disturbances which may have a southernly dip than normal. This factor was observed in April month also when greater than normal thunderstorm activity was reported across North-East India as the trough dug more southward and brought rains. 

Aperiodic rainfall shall be there with 85% NORMAL and 15% DEFICIENT CONDITIONS

4) North East India

NE India will witness "Slightly Weak" Monsoon with the primary reason expected to be the less effective Bay of Bengal current. Due to lesser MJO events the current may not be that strong to produce much rains in the region

Expected 80% NORMAL RAINS AND 20% DEFICIENT 

5) East India

Region shall witness SLIGHTLY WEAK MONSOON CONDITION. 

Expected 85% NORMAL and 15% DEFICIENT

6) Central India

Lesser Bay systems shall reach this area resulting in lesser precipitation as compared to 2010,2011. The southward dip of Jet stream shall assist is some rainfall. 

For South Central India ( Maharashtra parts) rainfall shall be 85% NORMAL and 15% DEFICIENT and for North Central India, rainfall will be 90% NORMAL and 10% DEFICIENT. 

7) Andaman and Nicobar Is. 

Normal rainfall is expected in this region around 95% i.e 5% deficient 

8) Lakshadweep and surrounding

Considering the expected strength of Monsoon current and Ekman Drift this region will witness deficient rainfall 

70% NORMAL i.e 30% DEFICIENT 

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SINDH REGION 

CONSIDERING THE CONDITIONS ACROSS ARABIAN SEA AND LESSER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, SLIGHTLY DEFICIENT MONSOON RAINS ARE BEING EXPECTED IN THIS REGION

AROUND 85-90% NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS YEAR

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7) Inference 

* METD WEATHER ESTIMATES THAT THE SUMMER MONSOON FOR INDIA WILL BE AROUND 85% NORMAL AND 15% DEFICIENT. 

* THE SUMMER MONSOON WILL BE DEFICIENT AS COMPARED TO 2010,2011

* NEUTRAL EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO), WEAK POSITIVE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) AND LACK OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) SHALL REDUCE THE RAINFALL 

* SOUTHERN AND WESTERN INDIA SHALL GET MORE DEFICIENT RAIN AS COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS

* NORTHERN,CENTRAL INDIA AND ANDAMAN NICOBAR IS. SHALL GET NEARLY NORMAL RAINFALL 

*MONSOON WILL BE WEAK IN JUNE AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS JULY

* VERY LESS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHALL AFFECT THIS YEAR

* INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) SHALL TURN TO A WEAK POSITIVE AROUND MID MONSOON PERIOD

* ENSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

* MJO INTERFERENCE SHALL BE WEAK IN BOTH THE PHASES 


* MONSOON SHALL BE WEAKER IN JUNE MONTH


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KEYWORDS-


1) ENSO ( El Nino Southern Oscillation) - 


What is ENSO (El Niño/ Southern Oscillation)?

ENSO stands for El Niño/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode.

La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode. 

2) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean that affects the climate of Australia and other countries that surround the Indian Ocean basin 

The IOD is commonly measured by an index that is the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) in the western (50°E to 70°E and 10°S to 10°N) and eastern (90°E to 110°E and 10°S to 0°S) equatorial Indian Ocean. The index is called the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The map below shows the east and west poles of the IOD for November 1997; a positive IOD year.

A positive IOD period is characterised by cooler than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and warmer than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean (see map below for an example of a typical positive IOD SST pattern). A positive IOD SST pattern has been shown to be associated with a decrease in rainfall over parts of central and southern Australia.

Conversely, a negative IOD period is characterised by warmer than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and cooler than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean. A negative IOD SST pattern has been shown to be associated with an increase in rainfall over parts of southern Australia

3) MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)

Tropical rainfall also exhibits strong variability on sub-seasonal time scales. These fluctuations in tropical rainfall often go through an entire cycle in 30-60 days, and are referred to as "intraseasonal oscillations". Four other terms that are often used interchangeably to refer to intraseasonal oscillations are "Madden-Julian Oscillation" or "MJO", "30-60 day oscillation", and "30-60 day wave". In this summary we will refer to this phenomenon by "intraseasonal oscillation" or the "MJO".

The MJO is a naturally occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system. It significantly affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the global Tropics and subtropics, and also strongly affects the wintertime jet stream and atmospheric circulation features over the North Pacific and western North America. As a result, it has an important impact on storminess and temperatures over the U.S. During the summer the MJO has a modulating effect on hurricane activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Thus, it is very important to monitor and predict MJO activity, since this activity has profound implications for weather and short-term climate variability through the year.

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days

There are distinct patterns of lower-level and upper-level atmospheric circulation anomalies which accompany the MJO-related pattern of tropical rainfall. These circulation features extend around the globe and are not confined to only the eastern hemisphere. Thus, they provide important information regarding the regions of ascending and descending motion associated with particular phases of the oscillation over those parts of the tropics where rainfall is generally low or absent.

There is strong year-to-year variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the ENSO cycle. Strong MJO activity is often observed during weak La Niña years or during ENSO-neutral years, while weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with strong El Niño episodes.

4) Ekman Drift

Ekman drift (or Ekman spiral) is a phenomenon, caused by a combination of the Coriolis effect and friction in the water column, that results in a net drift of ocean water to the right of the wind’s direction in the northern hemisphere, and to the left in the southern hemisphere.  On the US West Coast, Ekman drift is responsible for forcing surface water offshore when pushed by northerly winds, causing upwelling, and conversely forcing surface water to flow onshore and causing downwelling when pushed by southerly winds.

5) The Great Whirl- 

Region of High pressure ( at lower atmosphere) in the Arabian Sea. 

6) Jet Stream 

High velocity winds at the upper part of atmosphere ( troposphere) having motion from West to East. 

SOURCE- Climate Prediction Center,Bureau of Meteorology, Advanced H20 Power,