Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Severe Weather possible in Northern plains on Thursday!

Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Severe Weather is expected to eject at the nose of the trough digging in. A strong instability will build across northern and central states- EASTERN SD,EASTERN KS,NE Oklahoma and much across Missouri. High CAPE of 3000J/Kg, A lot of unstable moist air mass resulting in large SFC dewpoint to 70C and high moisture content in mid and upper levels with a very fav.low level m will fire thunderstorms if CAP breaks by mid afternoon period. Convection will initiate by late afternoon time and storms will rush across this region. A solid shear will be present to rotate the storms in areas Minnesota, IOWA and some parts of Eastern Dakotas. The LCL is showing low cloud ceilings and also the Lifted indices are indicating strong convection at 40kt Low level jets which will bring good moisture also. 
High precipitation supercells will eject as PW is over 1.75". Hails too will be very large as more CAPE increases the size
The Severe Weather will be over Minnesota and IOWA and extreme Eastern ND,SD,KS. 
I will target areas around the warm front in Minnesota and will initiate target of Fargo. Moderate risk upgradation is also possible due to solid Low level jets and EHI crossing 3.0

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