Friday, June 11, 2010

Monsoon onset dates!

Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

The SW monsoon had arrived in Kerala on June 5-6 2010 and NOT on 30th May 2010 as per IMD. within the monsoon ridge, cyclone Phet was shaping up on 30th May 2010 and then Phet moved towards Oman coast for a landfall. Presence of low pressure near Kerala and rains due to it is not regarded as Monsoon as winds both at Surface and Mid levels were in anti-circular motion and not attracted towards Kerala and Interior India.
Phet weakened and got over on 6th June while its unusual path and two landfalls helped the SW monsoon. If phet w'd have moved northwards towards Pakistan by crossing Arabian from South to North, then it w'd have used all the moisture in arabian sea making a big delay for monsoon formation and advancement. 

Phet is causing a very heavy rainfall in open waters of Arabian Sea and caused in Oman also. 

From Satellite imagery of 12th June 05;30z and GFS models of 00z,12th June,
**Monsoon has reached Western coast of India, FULL STATE OF KERALA ON WESTERN SHORE,Karnataka, Goa
**Pre-Monsoon showers will convert to Monsoon in Mumbai in next 48hrs
** Monsoon will strengthen more on western coast and A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING ON WESTERN SHORE
** Pre-Monsoon shower will hit Nagpur and interior Maharashtra in next 48hrs. 
For Nagpur, IT will rain on Sunday Night which will be Pre Monsoon Shower-1
Monday it will rain more towards night

Monsoon onset in Nagpur and interior maharashtra  will be on 26th June 2010

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