Hurricane Alex to make a landfall tonight at Mexico coast

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH

 OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH

 OF THE RIO GRANDE

 * THE COAST OF MEXICO 

FROM THE MOUTH OF

 THE RIO GRANDE TO 

LA CRUZ 

 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

 IN IN EFFECT FOR...

 * THE COAST OF TEXAS 

FROM BAFFIN BAY TO 

PORT OCONNOR 

* THE COAST OF MEXICO

 SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO 

CABO ROJO

The first Hurricane of the Atlantic season Hurricane Alex is on its way to make a landfall around SAN FERNANDO in Mexico. This landfall will be along the coast of Mexico to the West of San Fernando and to the South of Matamoros,Mexico by THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. The Rainfall bands are now hiting this area and HEAVY RAINS is being reported from Local weather stations with a high winds gusts...

The Location of Hurricane ALEX as analysed on 100CDT,30th June was--

24.4N,96.2W which is

175KM ENE OF LA PESCA,MEXICO

210KM,SSE OF BROWNSVILLE,TEXAS,USA

THE MAX WINDS ARE 135KM/HR

AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962MB.IT IS MOVING 320DEG OR NW DIR AT 18KM/HR..

ALEX IS APX 151.69 KM FROM EASTERN SHORE OF MEXICO...

THE RAINFALL BANDS ARE NOW CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO AREA.

THE EYEWALL WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 9-12am LT. BUT HURRICANE FORCED WINDS AND STORM SURGES WILL BE EMINENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 4" ACCUMULATION AS ALEX HEADS..

FORECAST MODELS---

THE RUC,GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SST DATA THAT ALEX WILL INTENSIFY TODAY TO CAT. 2 HURRICANE. ALEX WILL GET GOOD MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO INTENSIFY AMIDST LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD OUTFLOW AND LACK OF STRONG AGAINST COOL WINDS TO PUMP COOL AIR IN IT.

ALL MODELS AGREE WITH 6-12" RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND HURRICANE LANDFALL AREAS NEAR SAN FERNANDO. HIGH WINDS of 70km/hr+ are likely with more gusts and Storm surges upto 6FT

ALEX WILL MOVE intensify today evening to CAT. 2 with expected 98mph winds.

LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BY NIGHT HOURS IN 9-12PM LT WITH EYEWALL PASSING THE SAME TIME AND I EXPECT THE LANDFALL WITH A CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 1 ON THE BORDER OF 1 AND 2 ON SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.

TORNADO WATCHES AND FLOODING POTENTIALS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORNADOES at the SE TEXAS mostly at TEXAS-NM coastaline border. Flooding is likely to happen after landfall.