VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS TO LASH NAGPUR CITY

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER-

0100hrs,1st July 2010

A MARK II ALERT MEANS THAT THE WEATHER CAN BE HAZARDOUS AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

MARK II ALERT BEGINS FROM 1200HRS,1ST JULY AND WILL CONTINUE TILL 3RD JULY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINS WILL BE OUT IN TODAY'S EVENING SO BE SURE TO CARRY UMBRELLAS WITH YOU AND REMEMBER TO SWITCH OFF AND REMOVE ELECTRIC CONNECTIONS DUE TO LIGHTNING. 

* VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL HIT ON FRIDAY EVENING

* PLEASE KEEP AN UMBRELLA IN EVENING HRS FOR THIS TIME

Concerning- a MARK 2 alert as per SWR <severe Weather risk scale> of METD WEATHER in Nagpur

A strong low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal apx 100km to the East of Tamil Nadu. This low pressure has formed in the lower levels of 850mb and has the anti-cyclonic spic in the mid 500mb level also. Strong convection is taking place in this zone resulting in intense cloud tops both in height and temp which now will be controlled by the 300mb Jet streams. These jets will push this Low level circulation or low pressure inwards to the NE of Maharashtra. This low pressure will pull in the SW monsoon winds which currently are scattered towards it resulting in a very good moisture incursion inwards in Maharashtra and Eastern parts of the country.

As per GFS upto 2nd July, This low pressure which will be a LLC<low level circulation> will be present few hundred kilometers to the South of Kolkata and will influence the Low level jets. 

This all will bring Heavy to Very heavy rains in Nagpur city,Raipur and the districts near to Nagpur in the limit of  200kms away

Rains will be heavy and more drops/minute. First spells will be on 1st July,Thursday in late afternoon to evening hours in the range 4-6PM. They will continue till all the night. They will amount near about 60mm+

On Friday, More rains will be there and timings will be out soon. It will also rain on Saturday

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Hurricane Alex to make a landfall tonight at Mexico coast

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH

 OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH

 OF THE RIO GRANDE

 * THE COAST OF MEXICO 

FROM THE MOUTH OF

 THE RIO GRANDE TO 

LA CRUZ 

 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

 IN IN EFFECT FOR...

 * THE COAST OF TEXAS 

FROM BAFFIN BAY TO 

PORT OCONNOR 

* THE COAST OF MEXICO

 SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO 

CABO ROJO

The first Hurricane of the Atlantic season Hurricane Alex is on its way to make a landfall around SAN FERNANDO in Mexico. This landfall will be along the coast of Mexico to the West of San Fernando and to the South of Matamoros,Mexico by THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. The Rainfall bands are now hiting this area and HEAVY RAINS is being reported from Local weather stations with a high winds gusts...

The Location of Hurricane ALEX as analysed on 100CDT,30th June was--

24.4N,96.2W which is

175KM ENE OF LA PESCA,MEXICO

210KM,SSE OF BROWNSVILLE,TEXAS,USA

THE MAX WINDS ARE 135KM/HR

AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962MB.IT IS MOVING 320DEG OR NW DIR AT 18KM/HR..

ALEX IS APX 151.69 KM FROM EASTERN SHORE OF MEXICO...

THE RAINFALL BANDS ARE NOW CAUSING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO AREA.

THE EYEWALL WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 9-12am LT. BUT HURRICANE FORCED WINDS AND STORM SURGES WILL BE EMINENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 4" ACCUMULATION AS ALEX HEADS..

FORECAST MODELS---

THE RUC,GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SST DATA THAT ALEX WILL INTENSIFY TODAY TO CAT. 2 HURRICANE. ALEX WILL GET GOOD MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO INTENSIFY AMIDST LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD OUTFLOW AND LACK OF STRONG AGAINST COOL WINDS TO PUMP COOL AIR IN IT.

ALL MODELS AGREE WITH 6-12" RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND HURRICANE LANDFALL AREAS NEAR SAN FERNANDO. HIGH WINDS of 70km/hr+ are likely with more gusts and Storm surges upto 6FT

ALEX WILL MOVE intensify today evening to CAT. 2 with expected 98mph winds.

LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BY NIGHT HOURS IN 9-12PM LT WITH EYEWALL PASSING THE SAME TIME AND I EXPECT THE LANDFALL WITH A CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 1 ON THE BORDER OF 1 AND 2 ON SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.

TORNADO WATCHES AND FLOODING POTENTIALS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORNADOES at the SE TEXAS mostly at TEXAS-NM coastaline border. Flooding is likely to happen after landfall.

What is causing Monsoon to wait!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The South-West Monsoon has totally halted and no new monsoon current has been recorded in India. So far, What I have concluded is that the direction of SW Monsoon winds is more pointing towards western coasts of India and that flow is not very strong to cause heavy rains or rains in Delhi and northern states. Cyclone Phet which was a Severe Cyclonic storm of Cat. 4 which had formed in Arabian sea has caused a very heavy rains in open waters of Arabian sea and along the western coast, With absolutely no Fresh low pressure or cyclone getting created in the bay

of bengal, the monsoon winds are not regulated as they do in every June

Reasons for Monsoon failure!

1. Cyclone Phet

Cyclone phet has affected the monsoon. Phet had formed within the monsoon trough and marched Westwards towards Oman first and then towards Pakistan. This path had consumed the moisture in arabian sea which is pushed by monsoon winds as flow of winds becomes SW. From the Weather models of 850mb and surface winds, its clear that all the moisture in India points towards North and remains at Western Coast and doesn't move inwards due to

Winds surging from South instead of SW.

Cyclone Phet has caused heaviest rains in open waters of Arabian sea more than 600mm.

Phet is still causing more rains in sea than on land

RIGHT- NASA TRMM SATELLITE SEES RAINFALL IN OPEN WATERS OF ARABIAN SEA. THIS IMAGE IS A COLLECTION FROM MAY 31 TILL JUNE 6 WHICH WAS PHET'S LIFE DURATION.

2.Monsoon winds

AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS CREATED IN NORTHERN PLAINS, The winds at lower levels flow in a more northerly pattern than westerly pattern. This is preventing Eastern Maharashtra and Eastern states from receiving the monsoon

3. WEAK MJO AND NEGATIVE IOD

The third main reason for Weak monsoon is Weak MJO and Negative IOD

Madden Jullian Osscilation is a patch of rainfall anomaly travelling from East to West. The MJO negative phase means more rains than usual and positive means less rains than usual. The MJO current forecast see here is showing a positive cell near India which means relatively less rains then normal

II. Indian Ocean Dipole is a phenomena similar to El Nino and La Nina but happening in the pool of Indian Ocean. IOD has dipped to -0.8 in June and is expected to be in a negative phase until July end to July mid. When IOD is positive, it means comparitively warm water is present with more rains in Western Indian Ocean than in Eastern Indian ocean.

Historic Forecasts for IOD see here clearly shows a negative DMI in 2009 and it was a deficient rainfall in 2009. DMI however will rise by August and causing a normal August rainfall for 2010....

4. No Formation of significant low pressure in Bay of Bengal

Once cyclone Laila had formed in BOB which was weaker than Phet. Absence of Low pressure in BOB means no direction of Monsoon winds towards Interior India. If a strong low pressure happens in BOB and if it moves towards Kolkata, then monsoon winds will be steered to Interior India instead of coastal west..

So far, there is no chance of such formation as MJO tends positive and forecasts for MJO not showing any signs.Also broad convection happening in BOB....

Based on all this analysis, Monsoon is delayed by apx. 7 days and in some area by 10 days.

Its a summer condition in Northern India and also in Vidarbha area...

New dates of monsoon onset will be announced in the next post

DELAY! DELAY! DELAY!

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS,

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

The SW monsoon in 2010 hasn't been that good as In most of the country, Monsoon is running late and behind the normal. In the last week, Monsoon marked good strength along the western coast particularly in Mumbai city area. Unfortunately SW Monsoon didn't progress towards Interior Maharashtra and also towards Northern plains.

The current pattern of Monsoon and amount of precipitation in Nagpur and surroundings have made it clear that few rains which had lashed in Nagpur some days back were Pre-Monsoon showers as had been predicted by METD WEATHER. Monsoon,unfortunately has failed to mark the 26th June 2010 target of METD WEATHER due to many reasons and now is likely for a delay.

AS per present situations, monsoon is running behind the schedule by a week almost. It hasn't advanced inwards in India and is just bountiful for Western Coast only. It looks like Monsoon is on a week delay.

NEW DATES-

Monsoon onset in Nagpur- 4th July 2010

Monsoon onset in Delhi- 7th July 2010 or LATE

For Jammu and Kashmir- 14th July 2010 or LATE

For July, DEFICIENT RAINFALL is eminent as being depicted by few models of Indian Ocean DIpole and MJO oscillations. I am revising a 70% rainfall this year and will be more in August and NOT SEPTEMBER AS PER IMD

Chance of Rainfall and Thunderstorm tonight in Nagpur

There is a good chance of rainfall with thunderstorm tonight,25th June
2010 in Nagpur. The Pre-Monsoon shower-3 will conclude today and
Monsoon is expected to hit tomorrow 26th June as per METD WEATHER.
The atmosphere is moderately moist increasing RH after evening and
allowing thunderstorm due to CAPE. Rainfall had happened the last time
I mailed all in Eastern Nagpur but not in Pratap
Nagar,Dharampeth,Civil Lines etc.
Tonight from 9PM, clouds will build in sky favouring for a
Thunderstorm which will force to remove Electric connections followed
by rainfall in the range 10-11PM tonight

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Chance of Rainfall with Thunderstorm today!

There is a high chance of thunderstorm with rainfall today. The GFS weather models are showing some convection will build across Eastern India and the upper winds will carry towards Nagpur from South East. High CAPE over 2500J/Kg which was distinguished by heavy thunderstorms on Sunday and yesterday night which led to lightning is possible tonight also. Rainfall also is possible with heavy rains at times. Lightning will begin by 7PM followed by Rains from 8PM onwards. Heavy rains will likely lash by 9PM and I will advice to remove Tv and other electrical connections due to lightning strikes

Rainfall- From 8PM

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Pre-Monsoon shower-1 is now over in Nagpur

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

The first phase of Pre-Monsoon shower is now over in Nagpur. As per the datas recorded from headquarter total rainfall neared to 50mm in the last 3 days. For the coming days the weather will be dry and warm with less or no chance of rainfall happening. 

Next round of Pre-Monsoon showers will strike mostly on 24th with some convective rainfall happening in between which will be informed separately. Monsoon is all set to strike on 26th June 2010 in the city

--
Akshay Deoras,
akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
metdweather.blogspot.com
P- 94223-13055

Severe Weather possible in Northern plains on Thursday!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster

Severe Weather is expected to eject at the nose of the trough digging in. A strong instability will build across northern and central states- EASTERN SD,EASTERN KS,NE Oklahoma and much across Missouri. High CAPE of 3000J/Kg, A lot of unstable moist air mass resulting in large SFC dewpoint to 70C and high moisture content in mid and upper levels with a very fav.low level m will fire thunderstorms if CAP breaks by mid afternoon period. Convection will initiate by late afternoon time and storms will rush across this region. A solid shear will be present to rotate the storms in areas Minnesota, IOWA and some parts of Eastern Dakotas. The LCL is showing low cloud ceilings and also the Lifted indices are indicating strong convection at 40kt Low level jets which will bring good moisture also. 

High precipitation supercells will eject as PW is over 1.75". Hails too will be very large as more CAPE increases the size

The Severe Weather will be over Minnesota and IOWA and extreme Eastern ND,SD,KS. 

I will target areas around the warm front in Minnesota and will initiate target of Fargo. Moderate risk upgradation is also possible due to solid Low level jets and EHI crossing 3.0

Pre-Monsoon Showers arrive in Nagpur

The pre-Monsoon showers are finally here in Nagpur from 15th June 2010. Conditions were favourable for the onset since 14th june only but due to moisture problem rains arrived on Tuesday. Wednesday it has surely rained VERY HEAVILY after 6PM with a thunderstorm happening. METD WEATHER will now provide Real Time weather data from Pratap Nagar. Data will be of Amount of Rainfall and winds.

My raingauge recorded about 16.2cm or 6.37 inch rainfall from 9PM to 10:50PM. Surely there has been more but I was unable to record it. 

The pre-monsoon showers will continue with thunderstorms on Thursday also. According to the latest Weather models, apx. 10mm rains will be there tomorrow and accumulations will be more than that.

The only limiting factor can be a slightly less moisture at the lowest level but if GFS improves it will rain tomorrow also

I was unable to send an email alert before rains as the laptop battery has totally finished

Real time updates are issued on Facebook and Twitter also

Search METD WEATHER or Akshay Deoras on Facebook and also on twitter.com/akshaydeoras

The videos are uploaded on youtube, Channel name is mrakshaydeoras

Fast alerts are issued on blog also so do keep checking the blog as it can get difficult to send emails very often

A momentary relief but temperatures will soar to 40C by Sunday or Monday

Real Monsoon will touch on 26th June 2010

Heavy Rains grips Mumbai city

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

*** MARK 5 ALERT IN PROCESS FOR MUMBAI CITY TILL 1800HRS,16TH JUNE***

*** VERY HEAVY RAINS,TIDES TO HIT ON TUESDAY***

*** WATER LOGGING PROBLEMS, AIR,LAND TRAFFIC SUSPENSIONS***

*** PEOPLE ARE ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT OF HOUSE ON TUESDAY AND IF

URGENT CARRY SNACKS, WATER,TORCHES,RADIOS,FIRST AID TOOL,

CHARGED MOBILE PHONES,RAINCOATS AND BEDDING SHEETS

IF TRAVELLING ON HIGHWAYS

*** PUNE CITY RAINFALL STRENGTH REDUCES AND I PUT THEM TO A MARK 3

ALERT

An unorganised wide spread area of convection from the arabian sea will continue to move towards Mumbai and nearby areas triggering Heavy Heavy Rains and Thunderstorms.

Low visibility problems will create havoc in mumbai in later time

SOME EXPECTED RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS-

MORE THAN 220mm rains are being expected in Pune

More than 300mm rains are being expected in Mumbai

For more figures visit

http://www.gujaratweather.com/forecast/ and GFS precipitations models

Western Coast of Maharashtra with Mumbai city and Pune are on a MARK 5 ALERT!

METD WEATHER,

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

**** MARK 5 ALERT DUE TO RAINS IN MUMBAI,PUNE,WESTERN COAST OF MAHARASHTRA,WEST KERALA AND WEST

      KARNATAKA.   

**** A PDS<PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION> IS IN EFFECT FOR MUMBAI,PUNE AND OTHER URBAN CITIES ON 

      WEST MAHARASHTRA.

**** VERY VERY HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY STARTING FROM MONDAY EVENING

**** MARK 5 ALERT STARTS FROM 1800HRS,14TH JUNE 2010 TO 1800HRS,16TH JUNE 2010

**** FLOODING POTENTIALS ARE MAXIMUM IN MUMBAI WITH AIR,LAND TRAFFIC SUSPENSIONS

Very strong convection is happening about 200km to the west of Coast Maharashtra as being depicted by the 00z,GFS 500mb Vorticity plots. Right now, A surface low has not been spotted in the pressure maps so chance of cyclone formation is least. The 850mb winds are getting attracted towards a surface low in Northern Gujarat and thus will advance the convection towards North. 

As this organised convection surges north, it will bring INTENSE AND VERY HEAVY RAINS along western coast of India

IN MUMBAI ABOUT 150MM PLUS,15CM AND ABOVE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND MORE IN PUNE THE SAME DAY

PEOPLE MUST NOT GO OUT OF HOUSE ON TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR ANOTHER 26TH JULY 2005 FLOODS. 

HIGH TIDES WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIT ALSO!

MARK 5 ALERT REFERS TO VERY HIGH RISK,VERY IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED

Chance of Thunderstorm with rains on Monday Night

METD WEATHER,

14th June 2010

As per the 00z,GFS

Moderate to high moisture content in lower and mid levels of atmosphere with high instability<CAPE> and no CAP,Thunderstorms are possible in Nagpur city this evening.

Thunderstorm will trigger mostly after 6PM causing slight rains all night

On Tuesday,It can rain heavily in Ngp. I will notify later!

Pre-Monsoon shower will arrive tomorrow and Monsoon by 26th June 2010

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST MAHARASHTRA,MUMBAI,PUNE ON TUESDAY

Extremely heavy rains on the Western Coast of India from Tuesday night

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras,

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- MARK 4 ALERT AS PER SEVERE WEATHER RISK SCALE

AS PER THE 00Z,13TH JUNE 2010 GFS

CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE AND WILL BE NOTIFIED AS PER THE NEW RUNS

As per the 00z GFS of 13th June Monsoon is in a very good shape in Kerala and Karnataka. Monsoon winds are expected to advance more on the western coast due to a low pressure in upper central India resulting in incursion of moisture from Arabian sea.The 850mb winds are largely responsible and all low level moisture in favour of CAPE and strong dewpoints will trigger Thunderstorms across the coasts and slightly interior

DIVISIONAL ALERTS------

1] FOR KERALA, KARNATAKA

Alert starts from 1200hrs,13th June 2010--- Alert expires 1800hrs,18th June 2010

Heavy rains are likely to hit the western coast of Kerala, Karnataka and central regions also. Rains must have begun and will be very strong till Monday mid day. Moderate rains will continue till Friday mid day. Flash flood like situations can happen!!

2] GOA STATE

Alert starts on 1200hrs, 14th June 2010--- Alert expires 1800hrs,18th June 2010

Thunderstorms with high winds, Heavy rainfall due to strong moisture at lower levels will dominate in Goa reaching THE PEAK on Tuesday night,Wednesday and some hours on Thursday. People must watch out for HIGH TIDES on the shore and also from flash flood like situation

3] Western Coast of Maharashtra

Alert starts on 1800hrs, 14th June 2010

Thunderstorms with high winds, heavy rainfall will strike reaching peak on Tuesday early period and VERY HIGH on Thursday,17th June 2010. 

A SPECIAL ALERT IS FOR MUMBAI CITY FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, IF GFS MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH THEN THINGS CAN BE SIMILAR TO 26TH JULY 2005 IF BMC HASN;T PREPARED WELL

Monsoon onset dates!

METD WEATHER,

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster

The SW monsoon had arrived in Kerala on June 5-6 2010 and NOT on 30th May 2010 as per IMD. within the monsoon ridge, cyclone Phet was shaping up on 30th May 2010 and then Phet moved towards Oman coast for a landfall. Presence of low pressure near Kerala and rains due to it is not regarded as Monsoon as winds both at Surface and Mid levels were in anti-circular motion and not attracted towards Kerala and Interior India.

Phet weakened and got over on 6th June while its unusual path and two landfalls helped the SW monsoon. If phet w'd have moved northwards towards Pakistan by crossing Arabian from South to North, then it w'd have used all the moisture in arabian sea making a big delay for monsoon formation and advancement. 

Phet is causing a very heavy rainfall in open waters of Arabian Sea and caused in Oman also. 

From Satellite imagery of 12th June 05;30z and GFS models of 00z,12th June,

**Monsoon has reached Western coast of India, FULL STATE OF KERALA ON WESTERN SHORE,Karnataka, Goa

**Pre-Monsoon showers will convert to Monsoon in Mumbai in next 48hrs

** Monsoon will strengthen more on western coast and A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING ON WESTERN SHORE

** Pre-Monsoon shower will hit Nagpur and interior Maharashtra in next 48hrs. 

For Nagpur, IT will rain on Sunday Night which will be Pre Monsoon Shower-1

Monday it will rain more towards night

Monsoon onset in Nagpur and interior maharashtra  will be on 26th June 2010

Cyclone Phet brings heaviest rainfall in open waters of Arabian Sea

The Category 4 cyclone Phet which formed on 31st May 2010 is causing a very heavy rainfall in the openwaters of the arabian sea.

Nasa's TRMM <Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission> satellite has shown the data. According to the precipitation tables recorded between 31st May to 6th June i.e during TC PHET, more than 600mm i.e 23.6 inches of rainfall have occured in the arabian sea. While the heaviest rainfall occurred over open waters, the cyclone triggered very heavy rainfall over parts of Oman and Pakistan, Nasa said.

"One area of northeast Oman received as much as 450mm (17.7 inches), while Pakistan received between 150-300mm (5.9-11.8 inches) as Phet made landfall there this past weekend. 

Phet made a landfall at OMAN on June 4 and then turned towards Pakistan. This route prevented the cyclone from consuming all the moisture in the arabian sea which is required for the monsoon formation. GFS models of 00z 30th May the last I had seen as I was on a leave were indicating that phet w'd move North as a result METD WEATHER delayed the monsoon onset dates. But since this path was all together like Laila which also moved towards AP and then from Orrissa entered Bay of Bengal, monsoon was saved. 

Phet was a Very severe Cyclonic storm which caused 44 deaths in Oman and Pakistan in total and 440 million US Dollar damage. Lowest pressure recorded was 970mb and 250km/hr 3 minute sustained winds were in it.