MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN USA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN PARTS OF MO-IL

VIA STORM PREDICTION CENTER, FORECAST DISCUSSION

SPC AC 301631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY...WRN GREAT LAKES...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
AN MCS CURRENTLY OVER NCNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO NCNTRL IL
THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE MCS ACROSS SCNTRL
MO AND AR WILL RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S F. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...INITIATING NUMEROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE WRN EDGE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ECNTRL MO SSWWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LINE OF STORMS IN NW MO WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND SE IA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WRN IL EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS MOVING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 50 KT AT 850 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO A UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE STRONG LINEAR DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN IL SWD ACROSS ECNTRL MO
EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A 45 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED FROM NRN IL SWWD ACROSS MOST OF ECNTRL
MO.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SERN MO AND AR...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK WHERE INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN NRN AR...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN
DISCRETE BUT THE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR SHOW SFC WINDS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS
COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
POSSIBLY VERY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS AR SWWD INTO NE TX WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST.

TIME VERIFICATION OF RAINFALL IN NAGPUR ON 30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER,INDIA

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

The latest guidance of 00zGFS is showing a weak chance of rainfall in Nagpur. It is showing some chance of little rain and at time can turn ENORMOUS with a thunderstorm at night. I have been misguided many times by these models. I will issue a POSTPONE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN

THE ALERT NOW BEGINS AT 8PM,FRIDAY

THE RAINFALL MIGHT OCCUR BY 9PM TODAY SO I GIVE A TIME SLOT--

RAIN TIME SLOT- 8:30-9:30PM. THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME ONLY. ITS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM AS NO CAPE IS AVAILABLE. 

I WILL DEFINATELY KEEP TRACKING THIS WEATHER. BE ALERT AFTER 6PM AND THE ALERT STARTS AT 8PM-12AM.

FOR 4-6PM TIME SLOT AN ALERT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED, THAT WILL BE EMAILED

I AM POSITIVE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH RAINS MIGHT BE LESS CAN BE STRONG AS THE WEATHER MODELS ARE BOUNCY!

RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED FOR NAGPUR ON FRIDAY,30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

Concerning- Rains and thunderstorm in Nagpur on Friday,30th April 2010

AS per 12z,GFS RUN AND FORECAST METEOGRAM-

All Models have agreed with rainfall in Nagpur on Friday with a chance of thunderstorm building over Nagpur into late night hours. 

METD WEATHER  has issued a RAINFALL ALERT as per designated schedule on 12:00AM,30th april 2010

THE ALERT BEGINS AT 4:30PM WITH FIRST WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE WIND ADVISORY MEANS A WEATHER CONDITION IN WHICH HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW AT ABOUT 4:30-5PM WINDS UPTO 25.2KM/HR WSW WINDS WHICH is more or less the same as were on THU at 06:10PM will EXIST. 

RAINS WILL START between 4:30-5:30PM and more likely by 5PM. <FINAL TIME WILL BE RE-VERIFIED VIA EMAILS AND SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES BY 11AM>

Thundershowers with lightning and thunder will start by 9pm. 

DISCUSSION-

The ample 40mm precipitable water in atmosphere over Nagpur as being indicated by the GFS models will lead to formation of clouds <more than as it will be not visible>

The rising warm air due to surface heating will eventually push the vapour to cool air of -5C at 550mb. Clouds which will be all in HUMID environment as air is saturated with vapour will release water<RAIN> by 5PM due to cool air blowing and colliding with warm air in clouds and creating rains at the intersection. This mostly happens and the cool blowing wind which I have mentioned of 25km/hr will do the work. The rains will turn to CONVECTIVE RAINS By 9PM when T.storm builds in LACK CAPE area and is expected to be poor. 

As it is poor thunderstorm it will release the HEAVIEST RAINFALL by 9-10pm which will continue with calm winds till midnight. After 12AM, Clouds will still be in SKY with another chance of rainfall on SAT by 9AM. THe good news is that, SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY SO FAR AFTER SUMMER HAS STARTED. THE MAXIMUM TEMP WILL BE AROUND 35C OR LESS AND MINIMUM OF 25C. THIS IS REALLY COOL TEMP AND ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HEALTH AS IT WILL BE 40C AND ABOVE ON SUNDAY!

METD WEATHER ISSUES THE FOLLOWING ALERTS

1] WIND ADVISORY FROM 4:30PM,FRIDAY TO 7:30PM,FRIDAY

2] RAINFALL ALERT FROM 4:30PM AND RAINS BY 5PM. THUNDERSTORM BY 9PM AND A VERY HEAVY RAIN. AVOID GOING OUT BETWEEN 9PM-11PM>

3] HEALTH ADVISORY STARTING FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY

RAINFALL ALERT IN NAGPUR CITY ON FRIDAY,30TH APRIL

METD WEATHER,INDIA

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

Concerning- Moderate rainfall during afternoon and evening hours in Nagpur,30th april 2010

The most anticipated rainfall of this month and what has been a secret from mother nature is finally here. The traditionally known APRIL Showers finally will arrive on the last working day

Discussion- 

The existing moisture in the upper levels of atmosphere will increase and stretch to the layer of 700mb. Moisture aloft creates clouds and when moisture appears as low level moisture below the freezing line. it gives rains. I am expecting moderate rains tomorrow with the entire day record of rains about 7mm. This is sufficient to cool down things on the day and provide pleasant evenings and great joy for trackers like me. The rains will start approximately between 3PM-5pm. The exact time will be around 4PM with maximum occuring into sunset time. For me, I will not get a chance to see Planet Venus tomorrow

I also issue a WIND advisory as winds are expected to touch 25km/hr gusts. High humidity will likely trigger rains by 4pm.. Showers will be enjoyable as cloud cover is expected to be more than 90%. 

I will issue alert for rains from 3PM,30TH APRIL WITH MAXIMUM AROUND 5-6PM AND CLOSING DOWN TO 12AM,1ST MAY. 

A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING NIGHT HOUR

THE WEATHER MODELS IN INDIA ARE BOUNCY AND FLUCTUATING. AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN, A CONFIRMED EMAIL WILL BE SENT. 

CHANCE OF RAIN IS 30% WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAINS. 

PLEASE LOOK FOR EMAIL FROM MY SIDE ANYTIME TOMORROW MORNING OR TONIGHT LATE TIME WHICH WILL BE A CONFIRMATION NOTICE

ENJOY!

SLIGHT RISK OF Severe Storms across OK,KS,IA

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster

Concerning- Possible small tornado outbreak on Thursday, 29th APRIL 2010

Severe Weather is possible tomorrow in parts from Southern OK to as far as Western IA. A very strong trough is digging in and setting over these areas creating massive upper atmospheric motion. Meanwhile at the surface level, strong low level jets or Nocturnal jets are expected to build over to 60kt at max over Upper KS and SRN IA.
The sufficient instability between 1500-2000J/Kg will favour for destabilisation and will make the updrafts pretty strong in a very good speed and directional shear. This storm will likely witenss impedement in convection due to cold air mass set or CAP. The CINH is pretty strong for KS-IA region and will likely created a CAP BUST till Afternoon and late evening. CAP is likely to move away due to forcing vertical air by night and will make storms nocturnal. REMEMBER NOCTURNAL TORNADOES AND STORM ARE DANGEROUS. THE oz NAM refers to maximum danger to KS and IA for tornadoes. Moisture seems to be fair and sufficient for convection. The 48hr digital FRONT forecast is indicating a TRI point or Frontal intersection in IA making it favourable for severe storms and tornado. For the next hours, the llj will strengthen to over 70kt in central KS to SE IA amidst a weak CAPE and helicities over 400 m2 s2 leading to HIGH EHI value. FLASH FLOODS IS POSSIBLE IN MID MS VALLEY REGION DUE TO COLLISION OF MOISTURE WITH MOVING WARM FRONT

FOR OK
Late THU to Friday, for OK area can be ACTIVE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 60kt at SFC, CAPE of 2000J/Kg,DEWPOINT to 60F will be favourable for convection in steep lapse rate.So it will be KS-IA first and then OK severe Storm possibility WITH TORNADO

TORNADOES are possible all the way and if I w;d have been a chaser a w'd have targeted EASTERN NE, WEST IA, and NORTHERN KS and targeted to set around NEBRASKA CITY,NE for the chase and then to OK
FRIDAY- One more time, AR-La and nearby areas will witness severe storms and another tornado outbreak possible

RADAR IMAGES OF STORM WHICH HIT YAZOO AREA AND SE OF JACKSON AT HATIESBURG

SATURDAY HAD BEEN EXTREMELY BAD FOR PEOPLE OF MISSISSIPPI. MANY TORNADOES WERE REPORTED AND CLASSIC HOOK ECHOS DEVELOPED TOO. I TOOK SOME SCREENSHOTS OF RADAR IN AREAS OF HATIESBURG NEAR MS-AL BORDER AND YAZOO CITY AREA WHICH IS THE WORST HIT NOW WITH 3 PEOPLE DEAD AND LOTS OF DAMAGE

IMAGES-

1ST IMAGE IS YAZOO CITY RADAR

2ND IMAGE IS HATIESBURG AND 3RD ALSO THERE

Akshay 

""HIGH RISK"" FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN USA

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING- HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED
SPC AC 240557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN AR...NERN
LA...MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS E TX TO
CENTRAL/NRN LA...AL...WRN GA...TN...SRN/CENTRAL KY...EXTREME SERN
MO...CENTRAL/SRN/ERN AR....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK...FROM
GULF COAST OF SE TX TO FL PANHANDLE...TO PORTIONS WV/OH...TO
PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...TO E TX....

OUTBREAK OF NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TODAY...GREATEST
CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY OF WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE STG-VIOLENT TORNADO
THREAT AFFECTING MID-SOUTH...MS DELTA REGION...AND TN VALLEY.

AT THE MID AND THE UPPER LEVELS, A SPLIT FLOW TYPE OF PATTERN IS SEEMING TO BE MOVING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS LA,AR,MS,AL AREAS. THERE WILL BE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETS ALOFT AND SORT OF CYCLONE INDUCED LLJ WILL FIRE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX MOVING TO THESE AREAS. WITH ALREADY HIGH CAPE TO INSTENSIFY THE UPDRAFTS AND EXTREMELY HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR, CONVECTION WILL BE TORNADOGENESIS VERY SOON AS THE 60KT LOW LEVEL JETS ARRIVE IN WARM AND MOIST PROFILE. IN THE MORNING HOUR PATTERN AS THE SETUP DRAGS NORTH, A DEFINED 15% RISK OF TORNADO LIES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AR,LA. AN EMBEDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CREATING MORE FAVOURABLE WIND PROFILES DUE TO DEEP SHEARS IN THE O-1 KM FIELD, SUPERCELLS WILL EXPLODE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS, MAINLY NEAR MS VALLEY AND ALBANIA REGION. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY WITH SFS DEWPOINT LEADING TO 70F, CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH DUE TO CAPE AND MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT.

BY 08Z+08z RUC,
60KT LLJ WILL PROGRESS MORE INSIDE RAPIDLY BRINGING MOISTURE AND CAUSING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION. A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE IN WITH THE WARM FRONT INTERSECTING IT AT NORTHERN MS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTREME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOST FAVOURABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE WARM FRONT IS SETTING OVER NRN MS. WITH THE DRIVING COLD FRONT INTERSECTING IN 8HRS AND SO, TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND THE EHI VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 3.0 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

SPC HAS ISSUED WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAS UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK
DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT, HAILS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SPC GIVING 15% RISK
STAY TUNED FOR ALERTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE EXTREME

Severe Weather to unfurl across NE TX,NRN LA,AR,NORTHERN AND WESTN MS,TN

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Moderate risk of severe storms in USA

The latest model guidance is indicating the massive upper level cut off trough amplifying as the low approaches eastwards. The upper level trough with massive jets at the 850mb level will heavily bring moisture over areas of AR-LA-WEST MS especially creating a very moist area.Meanwhile, CAP seems to be 7.8 in AR, strong updrafts to clear the CAP. A strong vertical shear is expected to develop within the forecast high CAPE leading to a high Values of EHI rising above 3.0. At the same time, the upper winds continue to push northwards, similar setup is expected to build over MS valley and NE region. What looks to be a dryline setup across NE.
For,
NORTHEAST TX,NORTHERN LA,MUCH OF AR,NORTHERN AND WESTERN MS,AND WESTERN TN
A moderate risk indicates severe thunderstorms and hails which will be initiating afternoon to evening

MAJOR TORNADO EVENT COMING on FRI-SAT

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster


Concerning- Moderate risk of tornadoes across WEST MS,SRN AR,NRN LA

Thursday has been extreme for tornadoes with many tornadoes reported. SPC official reports indicate 31 tornadoes were reported. This is not yet confirmed. MODERATE risk is looking on Fri. I AM NOT IN A CONDITION TO MAKE A DETAILED UPDATE DUE TO DAMAGING HEALTH
HERE IS A SHORT WARNING
FRI- Severe Weather Event will initiate late afternoon to evening. 40kt jet at lower level will get excellent moisture and dewpoint to 70F in central LA,Central Arkansas and West MS. Low level shear is extreme with HIGH CAPE and daytime heating. This is going to be a MODERATE risk day. Slight risk is for LOWER MS VALLEY SRN PLAINS OZARKS...MID MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. TORNADO POSSIBLE FROM FRI NIGHT TO SAT MORN

THE EVENT CAN UNFURL AT LATE NIGHT ON FRIDAY. NIGHT TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. PEOPLE SHOULD BE READY

METD WEATHER GIVES"NO GO" FOR SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY TO LAND ON MONDAY

IMAGE-
1] PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA. SEE SE OF MAP
2] FORECAST GFS METEOGRAM OF ORLANDO,FLORIDA INDICATING HIGH RAIN

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS,
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER

CONCERNING- STS 131 LANDING

Space shuttle discovery has been given a NO GO by METD Weather's Extreme Weather forecaster Akshay Deoras for landing on orbits 222,223 during the morning hours at kennedy space center florida on Monday. The RAINS are the main reason for the second delay

HERE ARE THE STANDARD FLIGHT RULES WITH TOMORROWS CONDITIONS

Space Shuttle Landing Weather Criteria
Simplified Daylight End-of-Mission (EOM) Landing at the Kennedy Space Center
Weather Parameter and Their Limits

standard

Cloud ceiling height>= 8,000 ft---<15000FT ALOFT. FEW 9000FT EXP>***
Visibility >= 5 statute miles< MORE THAN 5SM ON MON>*
Crosswind <= 15 knots *
Headwind <= 25 knots*
Tailwind <= 15 knots (peak)<5 KT ON MON>*
<= 10 knots (2 minute average)
Precipitation and thunderstorms Not allowed within 30 nautical miles of the landing runway.< MORE THAN A INCH PRECIPITATION WITHIN LANDING LIMITS>***
Turbulence <= Moderate< LESS>*

INDEX-
* - ACCEPTABLE
*** - NOT ACCEPTABLE

A HEAVY BAND OF RAINS WILL BE THERE AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL WHICH WILL MAKE LANDING IMPOSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS HIGH WITH SLIGHT AND ACCEPTABLE WINDS
LANDING ON MONDAY AT ORBIT 223 IS ALSO DIFFICULT AS THERE WILL BE RAIN

LANDING ON TUESDAY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LESS CHANCE OF RAIN IN MORNING HOURS WITH ACCPETABLE WINDS AND CLOUD CEILING.

Weather Alert for North East India and Northern Bangladesh

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras,
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Severe Weather with thunderstorms in NE India
Sunday,18th april seems to be another day of severe thunderstorms in Northeast india and Northern Bangladesh.The 00z GFS for 500mb indicating strong cyclonic spin or neg.vorticity. This spin will be supported by CAPE of more than 2000J/Kg and moisture from Bay of Bengal. The rainfall will be very high in these region. Sunday morning to night will witness strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes too if the shear supports.Warm air rising up due to surface heating will increase the convection with no CAP to be a barrier. The dryline thunderstorm will build over these areas spreading EASTWARDS. The moisture incursion will happen and dewpoint will be 60F.


METD WEATHER ISSUES A SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR THE PEOPLE OF MEGHALAYA,ASSAM AND NORTH BANGLADESH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND REMAINING 7 SISTER STATES FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS. PEOPLE SHOULD BE READY FOR WINDS

Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption PART II 2010

ABOVE IMAGE-
FIRST ONE- ASH CLOUD OVER BERGEN,NORWAY ON 15TH APRIL
SECOND ONE- A VIEW OF THE ASH CLOUD FROM GOOGLE EARTH
THIRD ONE- NEW BAND OF ASH CLOUD AS SEEN ON 07:30GMT,15TH APRIL

CANCEL CANCEL CANCEL
This is what being seen at London's heathrow airport since 19:20GMT,April 15th 2010.
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted on April 14th. It is expected that this eruption is 10-20 times stronger than what happened on March 20 2010. On 20th March, Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted after 1821-23. After a brief pause, the volcano re-erupted on 14th Apr.This eruption has pumped a lot of ash in atmosphere creating noted ash clouds visible by satellite imagery. The last report of ash cloud was of 15th april where the ash cloud rose to 55000ft or 17000m. At this height, the narrow air currents or jet streams are active from apx. Western to Eastern Europe. It has been clear that these ash clouds are being taken over MAINLAND of Europe by the jet streams. The eruption is still in process which means more ash. The airports in Europe were closed just when the ash clouds were seen. Aircrafts fly mostly at heights above 25000ft upto 40000ft. Ash clouds not only affect the visibility but also can damage the flight engines leading to stoppage in combustion and putting life in danger.

EFFECT ON AIR TRAFFIC

As a result of the eruption there were significant flight delays in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Ireland, Russia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, with a number of major European airports being closed. and Belgium's airspace closed at 14:30 GMT. It was then announced that Denmark's airspace was to close at 16:00 GMT and Sweden's airspace at 20:00 GMT. The airspace of The Netherlands closed at 17:00 GMT. Poland closed the north part of the airspace at 20.00 Warsaw time. Finland closed its airspace at 21:00 UTC having closures before that in Northern, Western and Central parts of Finland. Closures in Germany were also announced. Also the Czech Republic had to deal with many delays and closed airports in the northern part of the country.

THE PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A NEW BAND OF ASH CLOUDS HAS BEEN GENERATED AND THIS TIME PRETTY DENSE. ACCORDING TO ME, THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP THE AIRPORTS CLOSE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING NOW WITH SOME AFFECTING IN 2-3 HRS.

HEATHROW AIRPORT STATUS

Flight cancellation update
Last updated: 09:10, 16 April 2010
Flights are cancelled at all London airports, until at least 01:00 on Saturday 17 April. This is due to volcanic ash spreading across the UK from Iceland which has caused the closure of English airspace by the UK air traffic control service (NATS).
Passengers should contact their airline for re-ticketing information.
NATS has advised that flights between Glasgow, Northern Ireland, Western Isles and North Atlantic may be allowed up to 19:00 (UK time) on Friday 16 April, subject to local weather conditions.
We strongly advise passengers to check with their airline for further details before travelling to the airport.
NATS will make a further announcement around 14:30 today, Friday 16 April. We will continue to update this site with the latest information available.
We are sorry for the disruption and inconvenience this will cause.

PROBLEMS IN ICELAND AND NEARBY AREAS
THE VOLCANO ERUPTION IMMEDIATELY STARTED AFFECTING LOCAL PEOPLE. for march eruption 500 FARMERS AND THEIR FAMILIES WERE EVACUATED. THE PRESENT TOLL IS TOO HIGH FOR EVACUATION ADDED BY FLOODS DUE TO MELTING OF WATER.ACCOMODATION PROBLEMS COUPLED BY LOW TEMPERATURE AND DRY WINDS ARE CREATING PROBLEMS FOR PEOPLE OVER THERE. THE ENTIRE VOLCANO AREA HAS BEEN EVACUATED.

FURTHER POSSIBILITY-
IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE VOLCANO ERRUPTS. THE ASH CLOUD IS LIKELY TO MOVE WITH THE JET STREAMS. AS JUST NOW I HEARD FROM MR. GENE MOORE, A METEOROLOGIST IN USA CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS HAD BEEN IN 1991 BY MT.PINATUBO ERUPTION WHICH WAS SECOND BIGGEST WITH VEI 6. Eyjafjallajokull,14TH APRIL VEI CAN BE 3-4 AS PER EXPERTS. THE ASH CLOUD CAN LIKELY AFFECT AIR TRAFFIC IN GULF COUNTRIES WITH LESS THREAT TO INDIA AND SOUTH EAST ASIA. ALSO WINTER CONDITIONS OVER EUROPE DUE TO Eyjafjallajokull IS LESS POSSIBLE.

Severe Thunderstorm Hits Eastern and Northeastern India

On April 13,2010,Tuesday a severe thunderstorm hit parts of India and Bangladesh.
This thunderstorm at 05Pm has vertical extent of 14km which later due to warm air feed from the ground soared to 18km by 22:47HRS. Ample moisture and instability with good Low level shears caused a tornado possible F0 with gusts over 100Km/hr. This one killed 116km and left many injured and homeless. The supercells were 408km away to N-NE of Kolkata,India. At 23:17, supercells moved to Bhagalpur and Purnia in Bihar.The preliminary reports indicate that it has affected mainly Dinajpur and
Jalpaiguri districts of West Bengal and Kishanganj district of Bihar, as also revealed
by the visual media reports. There are reports of uprooting of trees, damage to
communication/ electric lines and also damage to many houses. There are also
reports of some causalities, the maximum loss is reported from Dinajpur district.

THESE ARE KNOWN AS NOR-WESTER WHICH ARE VERY COMMON IN MARCH TO MAY IN BIHAR,JHARKHAND,WEST BENGAL AND NE INDIA WITH BANGLADESH. HIGH INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT AROUND THESE AREAS AND WHEN MOISTURE INCURSION OCCURS WITH SUFFICIENT HELICITY AND NO CAP STORMS ROTATES TO MESOCYCLONES AND FURTHER TO TORNADOES IN DOWNDRAFTS IF A STRONG UPDRAFT IS PRESENT. LOOKS LIKE 18TH APRIL,SUNDAY CAN WITNESS ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ROUND AS HAS BEEN ANALYZED BY ME,I SHALL MAKE A DETAILED UPDATE WITH SEPERATE MENTION AFTER ANALYSIS. PEOPLE THERE MUST BE READY TO WITNESS THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY TO RETURN FROM BAY IN THIS WEEKEND


AKSHAY DEORAS

HIGH ALERT FOR HOT DAY IN NAGPUR on Tuesday,13th April 2010 AND THE WEEK

METD WEATHER 

Akshay Deoras

Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- HIGH alert for Very high temperature in Nagpur on Tuesday, 13th April 2010

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUESTED WITH INFORMING OTHERS

APRIL has all been according to my forecastings with the possibility of temperatures soaring to 45C after 42C in March. The week 5-11APR had been all indicator for rising temperature. What was possible of 45C in NAGPUR and around was achieved on Sunday when MAX TEMP in Wardha was 45C.

FOR WEEK 12-18 APR

Warm air in place with no moisture supporting clouds formation will lead to SIGNIFICANT rise in temp over Central India. Right now, NO tropical or extra tropical systems are in place to prevent the rising temp. For this week, RECORD BREAKS are possible if all the MODEL runs verify. IT seems that Tuesday,13th APR will have a temperature above 44C and can reach to 45C and above to 46C. Afternoon and evening breezes will be in place making it difficult for all of us to venture out esp. in Evening and afternoon when these are active. For this time, It is better not to travel out especially after 10AM to 6PM. Getting out in afternoon hours can be really difficult and damaging to health. With no cool air actually being circulating over central as its all HIGH pressure, Temperatures will rise

POSSIBLE TEMP.<NOTE- THERE CAN BE 0.5-1C TEMP DIFFERENCE>

TUE- MON 44.3  -  46C

STRONG CAP IN OKLAHOMA! SEVERE WEATHER NOW IN EVN

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

FOR THE SKEW-T RIGHT NOW IN NORMAN,OK, A VERY VERY STRONG CAP OF 9.2 IS EXISTING. CAP IS THE INVERSION IN PBL WHERE COOLER AIR SETS AT BOTTOM WITH WARM AIR ABOVE IT. THUS IT IS A STABLE LAYER WHICH PREVENTS CONVECTION AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE. TODAY< TUESDAY> WHERE FOR OK, ALL THE INGREDIENTS SEEMS TO GOOD WITH A VERY GOOD THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THIS CAP WILL RESTRICT THE ACTIVITY OF STORMS. THIS CAP MIGHT BREAK BY EVENING AND THEN STORMS WILL FIRE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMP. BUT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE DUE TO A VERY GOOD SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILE. IA-MO MODELS AND OK MODELS FOR LATER PART OF THE DAY ARE EQUALLY GOOD WITH TORNADO POTENTIALS. ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH CAP IS RETARTED IN OK, PERMITTING CONVECTION

THE LATEST RUC RUNS ARE CLEARLY INDICATING THAT NO SIGNIFICANT ACTION ATLEAST TILL 5PM EDT IN OK, KS. NOW IT IS ALMOST CLEAR THAT THE MODERATE CAP OF 3.0 IN IA WILL BREAK EASILY FAVOURING STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER FOR IA-NRN MO WITH A VERY GOOD SPEED/DIRECTION SHEARS. THE EHI IS 3,0+ FOR IA.

NOW I W'D PLAY FOR IA FIRST AND THEN EVN FOR OK

Another round of Thunderstorms, Rains,HAILS

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Severe Weather In parts of Oklahoma specially and some threat in the upper parts of IA-MO AGAIN

The coming setup for Tuesday seems to be another interesting one. The upper level jets will flow with 90kt speed over OK resulting in atmospheric disturbances and at the surface by 18-21z, 40kt jet flow towards NE will bring moisture from Gulf of mexico rising the dewpoints to 60F+ if NAM verifies. The instability will build up favouring storms developing along the DRYLINE. The dryline will get sufficient low level shears building in OK to rotate. THE HODOGRAPH indicates strong directional shear with the speed shear building first. The storms can get instense typically at night in ESRN OK when the instability increases. CAPE will be about 2000J/Kg with the EHI rising to 3.0+ in Central OK. For IA, Instability and moisture gets limited reducing the chance of tornadoes. There might be tornadoes in Ok and SEVERE HAILS are for sure in the warned part

Tornadoes possible today in MO,SRN IA and nearby areas!

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Severe Weather week in USA and Monday SLIGHT severe Weather Risk

As mentioned earlier, Risk for severe storms advances for parts of MO. Latest NAM models indicating a adequate low level flow mainly over IOWA-Kansas-NE-MO border for the 12z+ with the main trough at the upper level. The earlier alert continues with upgraded risk for border areas. SPC gets 5% risk of tornadoes in NE KS,SE NEBRASKA,SRN IOWA,NRN MO and OHIO WEST. Sufficient unstable air mass at the lower levels favoured by destabilised atmosphere will lead to severe thunderstorms. For the 1z-12z period, threat seems to be for tornadoes in MO but as new convection occurs in the new Kinematic and thermodynamic environment things will change. The new CAPE will be 2000J/kg which is very high and the EHI seems to settle round 3.0. CAPPING will occur but it will be away before the system. A warm front will drive these storms and I w'd bet for tornadoes into the threat area.
Tuesday and Wednesday another rounds of severe thunderstorms. Update on it-- coming later
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MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COMING

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Major severe weather outbreak in USA

A classic amplified upper level trough with over 100kt+ jets will rotate over central axis near Colorado causing much upper level disturbance. At the surface level, which looks like the best setup of the year defies massive surface jet flow over Kansas ranging from 40-60kt over and around Kansas. The atmosphere will also be very destabilised if the NAM models for 00 UTC+51z 4th april will verify. These low surface flows will transport a lot of moisture and will support high level convection in the presence of 2000J/kg CAPE and high low level shears over 200 m2 s2 and 500 m2 s2 in NRN KS. The environment seems to be good with the dewpoints over 65F. This means triggering of storms will be easy with the cold aloft. THE SURFACE EHI are above 3 and had been consistent for NW OK,KS,SRN IA. The compact setup seems to affect NWEST OK and isolatively IA with new LLJ developing there and in SRN TX also. The system is very energetic to cause a very high level convection with pretty strong shears to rotate the storms and cause VERY MASSIVE TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. The HODOGRAPHS are also showing a very good wind field to play with.

FOR KANSAS
It looks like May 4, 2007 where 111 tornadoes were reported and caused massive destruction. Many tornadoes are possible if the model RUNS continue with the WARM FRONT SETUP. Chasing in Kansas on Monday will be really good.

FOR IA
Conditions remain favourable with SPC getting 15% RISK

FOR SRN TX and NW OK
Poor conditions in SRN TX and relatively good conditions in NW OK with tornado possibility

UPDATE OF HOT WEATHER IN NGP

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTER,

CONCERNING-- RE-UPDATE OF WEATHER IN NAGPUR IN THE COMING WEEK

March had been quite good for me with all the temperature estimation and the perfect relation between the models and the actual weather. The maximum recorded temperature at METD HQ. was 42.5 C  which was close to my estimation of 43C. The update was targeted for APRIL 1 but is being released on APR 3. 

A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMP. is possible in the coming week. The GFS models have been dominating with the temperature points touching above 42C right from Monday and the greatest possibility of 45C touch by Tuesday or Wednesday. My calculations have been indicating that like March, April will make history as the temp. can rise to max of 45C or above < 46-47C> withing this month only. For MAY, I don't find any rise in temp. above 47C and not like people say ITS HOT IN MARCH WHAT WILL BE IN MAY

Dry air is still being arriving into the southern plains on a large scale and getting heated much over Nagpur resulting in rise in temp. and dryness in all the air coloumns. 

No significant western disturbance or sort of storms are affecting in the North which is permitting to rise the temperatures here in Nagpur. The reasons can be many for this. In aprli,  many storms usually affect North which leads to spread of cool air mass towards south. 

AS ON 3rd april--

At the 200mb level the flow of jets seem to be zonal or absolute zero deviation resulting in advancing of dry mass from Gulf countries.Over NRN parts of India, the flow seems to be barely 20kt which is very poor to advance cool air from EUROPE. Over Central India, the flow is pretty strong above 80kt which is surely responsible for relative dry weather. The present jet stream will leave India without spreading much Northwards by 6-7th April and will take some 1 week for the new one to arrive. This can cause 45C temp in the next week. 

METD ISSUES ALERT FOR HOT TEMP. RIGHT FROM MONDAY,5TH APRIL TO 12TH APRIL AND REQUEST PEOPLE NOT TO LEAVE SHELTER AFTER 12PM TO 5PM. THIS WEEK CAN MAKE A RECORD FOR TEMP. 

**** TUESDAY AND WED. CAN BE TOO HOT

TAKE CARE!!!!

Friday weather update

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Extreme Weather Forecaster,

Concerning- Strong Thunderstorm squall line affecting USA
A strong squall line is advancing EWDS ahead of a driving cold front affecting many parts of tornado alley. The Warm and Cold front convergence at Dakota borders turning SE WDS has made SPC giving a MESOSCALE discussion in CENT AND EST IA. Some moisture is being drawn from the gulf of mexico into parts of NR TX,SRN OK and AK,LA resulting in increase in SFC moisture as being indicated by RUC models. The squall line thunderstorm will convect over Central Ok and TAIL SRN END will convect over CENT TX where 1000J/kg instability is present to increase the updrafts and also to low level shears to rotate/turn the storms. Since isolated thunderstorms are been seen in the RADAR, it seems that some supercells will explode right now within 1-2 hrs of this post and get into the 2% risk area. Convection will be highly supported when the LLJ ejects right into the 5% risk and for me in AK where sufficient instability of 1000j and some shears will be present. If the storms become strong right before entering AK, severe weather will be supported though less shear of 100 m2 s2. The cold aloft will increase the risk of hails in the areas and surface winds also will be strong/
FOr AK and NRN LA, tornadoes might occur as though I am not IN FAVOR OF IT.

The main impediment was the timing of the ingredients which seemed to be messy right till now favoured by SLOW INTERNET. The RUC runs now making things clear and looks like tornadoes can occur. I have not been FOND OF THIS SETUP FOR OK INITIALLY WHEN SPC WAS TOO HIGH FOR OK. AK AND LA WERE BETTER IN MY OPINION AND REALLY SEEMS THAT MAIN TORNADO ALLEY STILL AWAY TO THE EAST DUE TO WINTER CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMP. TO MINIMUM OF 9-13 C AT NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE PATH
MONDAY SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER DAY WHICH I WILL BE FOLLOWING.
GO TORNADO!!!!