Another winter storm to hammer Oklahoma and surrounding areas

METD USA

Akshay Deoras

Concerning Winter Watch for Oklahoma

A new powerful upper level trough will arrive over the southern areas BY 76 HRS FROM NOW. The cold air from canada will pass before this system arrives resulting in intense cold front over Oklahoma central. After that the main storm system will arrive.

THE GFS MODELS ARE INDICATING 72HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION OF 20in. 

There will be ice pellets of SLEET by thursday and will be get converted to SNOW by friday.

There will be heavy snow accumulation from Norman,Oklahoma city to texas. Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma will see the most significant snow accumulations of 1-2 feet, while eastern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas will likely see more than two inches of freezing rain followed by several inches of snowfall on the backside of the system. central OK, we'll likey receive intense freezing rain and sleet beginning Wednesday night and continuing early Thursday, changing to very heavy snow by afternoon, with 8-10 inches of snow on top of ice accumulations.  Shown at left is the 18z NAM forecast sounding for OUN at 21z Thursday, right around when the sleet will be changing to snow

For India, There will be an unseasonable Cyclogenesis over Afghanistan on 28th Jan 2010,Thursday which will create intense,low temperature top clouds which will cause the Best of thunderstorms and Winter Storm in Parts of India. Favoured will BE   JAMMU AND KASHMIR

SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MORE THAN 5FT.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORHT INDIA

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

CONCERNING MODERATE SNOWFALL IN NORTH INDIA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.WINTER STORM WARNING FOR INDIA ESP KYELONG,DRAS 

A LARGE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARDS NORTH INDIA FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. COUPLED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY, THIS TROUGH WILL ARRIVE WITH RAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER NORTH INDIAN HILLS SUCH AS 

SRINAGAR,LEH,MANALI,KYELONG AND POSSIBLY SHIMLA. AS THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING, THE TOTAL 4 DAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR KYELONG,HP WILL BE ABOUT 20MM WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF 5.81MM WATER ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LEADING TO A THUNDERSTORM WITH A WINTER STORM TYPE ATMOSPHERE OF WINDS  OF 26KM/HR.

IT WILL BE A MODERATE SNOW ENOUGH TO FILL THE MOUNTAINS AND COME IN THE NEWSPAPERS. 

IN THE PLAINS, WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO HIGH WINDS GUSTING TO 30KM/HR. 

THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM IN 140 YEARS IN USA

AMAZING! THIS IS THE WORD WHICH I CAN USE TO DESCRIBE THE STORM SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY WHEN I HAD SEEN THIS SYSTEM'S BEGINING ON THE MODELS,I WAS WELL CONVINCED OF BIG HITS. Especially for the Surfs offshore California where the waves were 30ft. It was expected that the 160kt jet will do the work of creating LOW LEVEL JETS.The pattern started from California coast creating very very heavy rains and some Waterspouts. 

Here is some HEAVY RAINS and here is a record of it.

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:

..CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

 RAINFALL WAS ALSO RECORDED AT ARIZONA AND OREGAN

...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSED, HEAVY SNOW WITH BLIZZARD WARNING WAS ISSUED. HERE ARE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

-------------------------------------

TORNADOES WERE ALSO CREATED AS YOU KNOW,

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.

TORNADOES REPORTED-

.   19/01/10--   THREE TORNADOES IN CALIFORNIA.....

    20/01/10..   18 TORNADOES.. <>

                           24 WIND REPORTS

                          35 HAIL REPORTS. 3 OF THEM LARGER THAN 2" IN DIA.

   21/01/10      9 TORNADOES. 1 IN GEORGIA,3 IN CALIFORNIA,2 IN ALBAMA, 1 IN ARIZONA,1 FLORIDA,1 TENNESSEE.

                         59 WIND REPORT

                         22 HAILS REPORT. 1 REPORT OF HAIL MORE THAN 2" D

   22/01/10      3 TORNADOES. ALL OF THEM IN FLORIDA. 3 WIND REPORTS FROM LOS ANGELES.

 THE MAXIMUM WAS AN EF-2 TORNADO at CANTON,TX.

 

THE AIR PRESSURE WAS ALSO REDUCED ON A LARGE SCALE.. IT CREATED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS WELL AND EVEN TODAY, WARNING IS ISSUED    

"""" ANZ094-230900-

BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE S OF 1000 FM 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2010  ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...  ...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR 36.9N 71.2W TO 38.9N 69.2W TO 38.8N 67.5W TO 38.9N 65.9W...  .OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT... EXCEPT FROM THE GULF STREAM S 50 TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 7 TO 14 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 16 FT...EXCEPT FROM THE GULF STREAM S 14 TO 22 FT BUILDING TO 16 TO 26 FT. AREAS OF RAIN CHANGING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. .SAT...NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT FROM THE GULF STREAM S 35 TO 45 KT EARLY...DIMINISHING TO N TO NE 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT LATE...HIGHEST E. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 16 FT LATE...HIGHEST SE IN THE GULF STREAM. SHOWERS ENDING EARLY. .SAT NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT...THEN W OF 70W SHIFTING TO SE 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 10 FT LATE...HIGHEST SE. .SUN...WINDS BECOMING S TO SE 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT W OF 69W INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT... BECOMING HIGHEST SW LATE. .SUN NIGHT...S TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT W OF 68W TO 30 TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT W OF 68W BUILDING TO 7 TO 15 FT LATE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. .MON...S WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT...THEN W OF 67W SHIFTING TO W TO SW AND DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 TO 24 FT...BECOMING HIGHEST E LATE. .TUE...WINDS BECOMING W 25 TO 35 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 FT...HIGHEST SE. .WED...W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT LATE...HIGHEST SE. $$""

THIS STORM SYSTEM BROKE THE PREVIOUS 140 YEARS RECORD BY A HUGE MARGIN.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD BREAKS

Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

NEXT WEATHER WARNING UPDATE SOON..

SEVERE WEATHER TO HAPPEN TODAY AT NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOME PARTS OF TENNESSEE.

METD WEATHER

USA

AKSHAY DEORAS

THIS SURELY IS GOING TO BE HISTORY. THERE HAVE BEEN 14 TORNADOES IN USA LAST DAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. I HAD FORECASTED IT ON FRIDAY JUST THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE 2-3 TORNADOES ONLY. AFTER HAPPENING OF CALIFORNIA TORNADOES, I WAS CONVINCED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TORNADOES UPTO 5-6 IN NUMBER. LAST DAY WHEN IT WAS 1 AM IN USA,SPC WAVED OFF ALL THE TORNADO POSSIBILITIES AND AT INSTANT BY AFTERNOON,THERE WAS AN OUTBREAK.

IT ALL STARTED IN THE AFTERNOON IN USA. UNFORTUNATELY IT WAS NIGHT FOR ME IN INDIA. 

THE INTENSE 50KT JETS WERE PRESENT MAINLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

THE CAPE WAS FAVORABLE. AND IT WAS A RESULT OF THE EL NINO WINTER PATTERN

""

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The jet streak is arriving a little late for robust diurnal convection today, and the best low-level wind shear will reside over East Texas into Louisiana, especially overnight tonight when the LLJ really gets cranking.  The RUC model is showing convective intiation along the cold front in North Central Texas between 4 and 5 pm CST, with an increasing threat for supercells overnight tonight well to the south and east of the Cold front over Southeast Texas into Louisiana as the jet streak plows east.  The biggest tornado threat over the South-central U.S. will be overnight tonight in extreme southeast TX into LA, between 00 and 06 UTC, when 0-1 km EHI values will be approaching the 2-3 range as the LLJ intensifies and low-level moisture continues to increase. ""

THIS WAS THE PATTERN YESTERDAY. IT CREATED 14 TORNADOES AND MANY DAMAGING HAILS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS WELL..

SPC HAD ISSUED MANY MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND I AM SURE IT MUST HAVE BEEN A LONG NIGHT FOR THE PEOPLE LIVING THERE. AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM APPROACHES AHEAD TOWARDS FLORIDA ANOTHER THREAT STANDS UP.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE IN ALL THIS IS REGARDING EL-NINO. EL-NINO IS A TERM USED TO DESCRIBE THE SEA SURFACE TEMP.WHICH ARE UNUSUAL AND  GREATER THAN THE NORMAL VALUE. 

AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES AHEAD, IT HAS 5% CHANCE OF CREATING TORNADO OVER NOTH TENNEESE,ALBAMA,MISSISSIPPI....

-------------------------------

TODAY THE ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARDS NORTH OF ALBAMA,MISSISSIPPI IN THE STATE OF PENNESSE.

I AM TALKING ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL JETS. THE CURRENT 40KT JETS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SPLIT INTO FEW JETS WHICH WILL TAKE AIM ON PENNESSE AND FLORIDA AREA.AS THE DAY PASSES THESE JETS WILL CONVERT INTO INTENSE 50KT JET.

THE BEST WIND SHEARS WILL BE WITHIN 9 HRS THAT IS TOWARDS THE EVENING. AS THE SHEARS COME IN THE AREA OF 60F DEWPOINTS AND A WARM FRONT ARRIVAL. THE ENVIRONMENT BY THAT TIME WILL BE DE-STABILIZED FAVOURING FOR TORNADOES. THE EHI<0-1> KM SHOWS VALUE OF 3 JUST OFF THE SHORE OF FLORIDA.THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL COME THE WARM FRONT.SPC HAS ISSUED THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANOTHER 5% CHANCE IS OF TORNADOES IN THE WEST

WE WILL TRACK THE WEATHER AND I WILL MAKE AN UPDATE AFTER 12 HRS..

TORNADO,HAIL,WIND ALERT WASHED OFF FROM LOUISIANA!!!

METD WEATHER

USA

AKSHAY DEORAS

THERE HAS BEEN INTERESTING WEATHER IN USA SINCE THIS WESTERN SYSTEM IMPACTED THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND CREATED THREE TORNADOES. 

IT WAS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOUISIANA,TEXAS AND MISSISSIPPI BY WED-THU.

BUT,THE MODELS ARE FIGURING THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW OF THIS TROUGH. IT IS NOT GOING TO BRING TORNADO AND HAILS TO SOUTHERN TIP.RATHER IT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS IN ARKANSAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JETS ARE LOCATED.THE CAUSE CAN BE THE WEAK ENVIRONMENT. IT IS STRANGE TO SEE SOMETHING LIKE IT. THE MODELS WERE AGRESSIVE TILL 12HRS BEFORE. SPC HAD CALLED 30% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. BUT NOW THERE AREAS ARE SAFE MAY BE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. 

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY WHICH IS A BETTER MODEL THAN THIS ONE...

TORNADO WARNINGS HAD BEEN WIDELY ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR SAN FRANSISCO AREAS. THE UPGRADED PANNEL SHOWS ______ 5% RISK OF HAILS IN CALIFORNIA REGION AND SAME  AT CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON

Details about the Western Storm invasion

METD Weather

USA,

AKSHAY DEORAS

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER.

The present RUN of the GFS Long Range models are showing situations clearly than what I had seen day before Yesterday. WEDNESDAY will be a weather day for areas such as LOUISIANA,MISSISSIPPI SOUTH,ALBAMA SOUTH,PENSACOLA,FL. 

These areas will witness some big thunderstorms especially parts of Louisiana. 

I was earlier thinking for supercells in this area but the present run of GFS T+90hrs is impressive. 

The situation is that The instability,Moisture and HIGH surface dewpoints are limited in these states. 

Most of USA is gripped by winter and cool air but some pumping from the GUlf will add to warm air and convective moisture in the southern tips of these areas.

If we see the CAPE forecast,A large 2000J/Kg-1 will be present over parts such as Oklahoma East to South and Texas East to North also at the southern sides of states of LO,MISSISSIPPI.

At that time the Jets at the 850mb will be settling over Northeast Texas and Louisiana.

This will be the 40kt jets. This has to be the start of thunderstorm. As the system progresses,A new 50kt jet appears over MISSISSIPPI. This has the instability as well present in the surrounding. 

This is also favourable. But the best 50kt jets are located little in the interior and as you move inside towards the land from the coast,The energy components decreases. So the activity remains confined to the coast. 

SO there will be thunderstorms in the areas mentioned above and probably  capable to produce supercells. Tornado chance however is low but still I can tell with surely when RUC models come into view.

coastal flood warnings will be issued 

The 5 to 7 inches of rain that parts of western Washington received Friday will pale in comparison to the rainfall that much of California and parts of Arizona will see in the upcoming week.

The south-facing slopes of the hills and mountains of Southern California may locally be doused with as much as 8 to 20 inches of rain. Dangerous, perhaps deadly, flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in the burn areas.

Snow will be measured by the several yards in the Sierra and by the yard across the mountains of Arizona.

Strong and potentially damaging winds will accompany the storms as they rake the Southwest.

Between storms there will be a large area of dangerous dense fog and even freezing fog in the Midwest. Use extreme caution driving overnight into early Sunday due to the low visibilities and icy glazed roads and highways from eastern Kansas to Missouri to central Illinois.

Also due to some significant surface jets,waves near california will be 30ft.

Stay tuned for updates

INTERESTING WEATHER TO HAPPEN IN USA BY THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IN LOUSIANA

METD INT

USA

AKSHAY DEORAS

It feels great to be back seeing USA models after seeing Argentinan pattern.

At present the weather in USA seems to good and enjoyable except for few states.

yesterday a small low pressure system was hovering over California coastal regions. Also Amazing low level jets of 40 knots resulted in Surfs near California coast and people like John Hallen of SevereWarningSystems.com enjoyed surfs which were more than 23m.

In a few days,90 hrs from now,A large system of low pressure will hit the USA West coast. The 300mb GFS shows intense jets of 160kt. This trough will be digging in and mainly aimed towards the south. As it progresses probably after 138hrs from now,we will be having low level jets at the 850mb near california where the winds are expected to be of 30kt. This will create HUGE surfs and people like JH will get a good chance to surf.At the same time, There will be another low level jet of 40kt over Lousiana coast. I know it is not enough to talk for supercells.

At the same time a high pressure located near usa atlantic gulf will pump instability towards USA southern region especially to lousiana. This will make high dewpoints and CAPE of 2000J/Kg. This value is Large on the scale but you require more cape upto 3000J/Kg for Hails. But I have seen tornado touchdown at the cape of 2000J/Kg also. 

Favoured by Relative Humidity of 90%.

I can say that there will be thunderstorms capable of producing supercells.

The air temperature stands to 70F and I can say Winter is not a barrier. 

Similarly, Rains will come and there might be a coastal flood warning. At present I am looking GFS FORECAST and when it comes to NAM I will get the favoured EHI index which will tell a lot.

It seems there will be supercells as everything is favourable. 

Strong supercell signatures near La Paz,Argentina

Supercells had already exploded in Argentina's Pampas area. As had been forecasted,Santa Rosa had severe hail beat because a supercell of more than 57.9 dBz was parked sometime ago. At present there are no activities going around Santa Rosa but there has been wide activity going around La Paz. A giant squall is approaching La paz. But The dewpoint is about 23 Degree celcius that is more than 75F. This is favourable for development of supercell to Tornado. But the intensity of the squall approaching towards La Paz might decrease and it will become moderate. La paz must be receiving rains at present. 

Reports received from Argentina-

on 11th some circulations were reported to the north of city Santa rosa but weren't tornado.Mendoza also had some amazing supercells. but no tornado 

this might be because of a weak low level shear to the west.

The attachments are

  09:00 GMT,12 th jan <radar one>

08:45 GMT GOES satellite imagery

showing intense,cold cloud tops

Akshay

Argentina tornado outbreak possible at afternoon on 11th Jan

METD,Int

Akshay Deoras

This is the third time, that I am forecasting for Argentina. 

The first forecasting was before 2009 ended. That forecasting had tornadoes. Then I forecasted on 5th Jan but there were supercells as actual trough was not present over the land. It was more pumping action. But the time has come to forecast something HUGE.

the 11jan GFS is showing that a powerful trough is setting over areas of santa rosa. This trough is favoured by CAPE which is also present. CAPE values are 2500J/Kg which indicate another chance of Supercells. The sea level pressure maps are indicating that it will be intense low pressure. This outbreak is possible from Afternoon as local Weather stations are indicating 50% chances of T.storm after 12pm. 

This has to be the best setup till now into this chase season which might show us tornadoes....

also there is  strong divergence at upper levels which is  usually associated with strong vertical velocities in the middle troposphere, and severe weather/heavy rainfall.

We will track the weather and let you know

ALERT FOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY 12TH JAN 10

METD Int,

Nagpur

 

Alert for ROUGH WEATHER

As is being seen in the satellite imagery,There is a rainfall chance of about 40% on tuesday. This will be a moerate rainfall lasting till tuesday night.

on that day maximum of 21DEG Celcius and min.. of 15DEG C will be there

 

The coldest night was day before yest.. when the temperature dropped 7.5DEG Celcius...

 

Use umbrella on tuesday

 

 

Akshay

 

Argentina to witness many tornadoes or supercells on 5th Jan

METD Int,
AKshay Deoras

The 500mb forecast for 00z 5th jan is impressive. This shows a massive
intensified trough setting over CHILE. In my previous forecasting I
had made it clear that the outbreak would be by 4th jan but now it
seems that 5th Jan would be better.
On 4th jan,The trough will start amplification at CHILE coast which
will start the activity.
But the real show comes on 5th when the upper system and lower system
interacts in the presence of instability and Humidity resulting in the
SURE formation of supercells and further to Tornadoes.
Mendoza would be a better place to begin with. The supercells will
form towards the South East of mendoza and might be traced by the
Radars at Santa Rosa.

when we track severe weather up in Usa, we see the troughs over the
land because USA has a vast area. Unlikely In Argentina the main
principle has to be applied
Generally the greatest lift from the trough is before it comes over
the Severe weather area.
This setup is seen in Argentina on 5th where the trough will pump
moisture and the 850mb jets there will interact and due to winds at
850mb the jets will move south

CAPE values are impressive and high humidity is also available
-------------------------------------------------
Last day, there were supercells in San Rafael and also to the south of
Santa Rosa.
The supercells were strong and produced hails likely but no tornadoes.
This was due to unseasonable 35-40knot jets at 850mb

Join us on Twitter by twitter.com/metd.

Another Active tornado Probabilities in Argentina by Jan 4

METD Int,

Akshay Deoras- Lead Weather Investigator

Argentina Chase season from December 24 has been good with some tornado reported By Reed Timmer on 28th December 09

After that Argentina weather was general with some thunderstorms reported by INTA near south Of Santa Rosa

All the basic GFS models are indicating that there will be another severe weather outbreak soon by 4th jan in argentina mainly at the favored place between Mendoza and Santa Rosa.The 

500mb Geopotential Height, 12hr Height Change, & Vorticity models are indicating that an Upper Level Trough which is arriving from South Pacific Ocean will set over CHILE coast. This will pump Moisture towards southern side. The maps of 200mb which are close to the core of the Jet streams show that low 35-45 knot low level jets will be present there at the affected area. 

If we see the maps for humidity and CAPE they are also suggestive for severe weather.

The outbreak of severe weather will start probably on 3rd Jan as the Trough sets over CHILE and amplifies. 

Then When it is amplified further, IT will start moving in by 5th jan

So tornadic chance is STORNG till 6th Jan. 

 

THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE 500MB WIND HEIGHT FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN. HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED THING WHICH IS THE POSITIVE VORTICITY LOCATED NEAR CHILE. POSITIVE VORTICITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS ABOVE IMAGE IS OF THE STREAMLINES AT 200MB FOR 12Z ON 3RD JAN 2010. 

HERE YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT RED STREAMLINES NEAR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE.

• Purple shading indicates the speed of the winds at the 200 millibar level, in meters per second. This altitude is near the level of the core of the jet stream. So the tracks of the jet streams can be seen very clearly.
• The streamlines indicate the direction of flow of the wind, which is generally from west to east throughout most of the subtropics, mid- and high-latitudes.
• The color of the streamlines indicates a relative measure of divergence of the flow in the upper troposphere. Orange and red indicates strong divergence at upper levels, usually associated with strong vertical velocities in the middle troposphere, and severe weather/heavy rainfall.

If I had been a chaser, I would have targeted the area between Mendoza and Santa Rosa

This will be HUGE and YOu will get many tornadoes. 

We will track them through RADAR