Low Latitude Western Disturbance to bring rainfall in widespread parts of India

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The low latitude western disturbance is all set to hit North India,Central India

Here is the expected weather in your region-

Thu,14th Feb

The WD arrives at the neighbouring nation but the moisture associated arrives and settles over a broad region. The atmospheric instability indicates that convection will be happening. The areas where rainfall and thunderstorm can be expected into the evening/night hours are-

Central MP around Bhopal, Northern MP and bordering Eastern,SE Rajasthan, Western UP prominently. Even Delhi-NCR southern areas can get an isolated thunderstorm into the night hours. 

15th Feb,

Rainfall reserved for Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi NCR, Entire Northern Plains like Punjab,Haryana,Less in Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and The least in Jammu and Kashmir.

Thunderstorms likely in the NCR region. 

The rainfall even will spread across Eastern Maharashtra like Nagpur bringing rains during evening-night hours. 

Not a very severe or heavy snowfall event expected in the hills. Hence no traffic disruption is expected! 

The system moves East on 16th and the eastern coastal states will receive some rains. 

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MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT NORTH INDIA FROM TODAY.DOS AND DONT'S IN THE PERIOD

METD WEATHER

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

LIKE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, 

A Major Winter pattern is all set to hammer North India producing extreme snow accumulation in the higher reaches causing a lot of problems including threats of avalanche. Here is what people must remember

THINGS TO NOTE-
3rd Feb 2013- 
Snowfall initiates in Jammu and Kashmir in the higher reaches. It spreads across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal over the night period and continuing later on as well whereas lower regions get rainfall. 

Punjab,Haryana may receive some showers due to it. 
Due to lower instability, convection is not expected and hence no thunderstorm

* Saurashtra also will receive light rains or a/two showers

4th Feb 2013
The system intensifies in the neighbouring nation and the result is that snowfall increases in J&K,HP,Uttaranchal,Nepal etc including Srinagar and tourists places around

* First Avalanche threat will develop for J&K Higher reaches.
* Snowfall will close the Jammu-Srinagar Highway also the already closed Leh-Srinagar highway

Rainfall also spreads southwards in North India. Thunderstorms expected in plains due to the developing instability

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains

Delhi-NCR, NE Rajasthan,Northern MP,Western UP etc to receive rains.



5th Feb 2013

** Avalanche threat will spread across Himachal,J&K .

** Very heavy snowfall will continue in the regions keeping the roads closed. Minor flight disruptions likely across Srinagar

* Rainfall will continue in North India plains with isolated thunderstorms and hailstorms as well with reduced maximum temperatures due to cloud cover and rains.

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains.

6th Feb-7th Feb 2013

Rainfall/Snowfall will decrease in North India. However due to high snow accumulations avalanche threat continues with fog in lower plains including SIACHEN GLACIER,Base Camp etc.

The system will then move away from India.

Thus due to very very heavy snowfall in J&K,Himachal and Uttaranchal the daily life will be hit hardly.

http://metdweather.blogspot.in/2013/02/potentially-major-storm-system-to.html

PREPARATIONS-

* PEOPLE LIVING IN HIGH ALTITUDE REGIONS SHOULD MAKE PROVISION OF FOOD/WATER ETC IN ADVANCE ITSELF WHICH WILL LAST TILL A WEEK,
* PEOPLE LIVING IN AVALANCHE PRONE AREA SHOULD EVACUATE BEFORE THE SNOWFALL STARTS AND MOVE TO SAFER PLACES
* PEOPLE TRAVELLING ON THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY MUST PAY AN ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER/AUTHORITIES AND REACH PLACES OF ACCOMMODATION WELL IN ADVANCE. FOOD/WATER MUST BE KEPT WITH THE PEOPLE TRAVELLING BY ROAD
* DUE TO HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, PEOPLE MUST STOCK MEDICINES AS WELL
* PEOPLE LIVING IN FOG PRONE AREAS OF NORTH INDIA MUST USE FOG LAMPS FOR DRIVING. 

Via- ready.gov

THINGS TO DO BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS- 

Before Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

To prepare for a winter storm you should do the following:

• Before winter approaches, add the following supplies to your emergency kit:
  • Rock salt or more environmentally safe products to melt ice on walkways. Sand to improve traction.
  • Snow shovels and other snow removal equipment.
  • Sufficient heating fuel. You may become isolated in your home and regular fuel sources may be cut off. Store a good supply of dry, seasoned wood for your fireplace or wood-burning stove.
  • Adequate clothing and blankets to keep you warm.
•  Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so it is important to know how you will contact one another, how you will get back together and what you will do in case of an emergency.
• Listen to a Weather Radio/Aakashvani or other local news channels for critical information from the IMD Officials. Be alert to changing weather conditions.
• Minimize travel. If travel is necessary, keep a disaster supplies kit in your vehicle.
• Bring pets/companion animals inside during winter weather. Move other animals or livestock to sheltered areas with non-frozen drinking water.
•  TRAVELLING IN CAR-
• Things to be kept- 
• Update the emergency kits in your vehicles with:
• a shovel
• windshield scraper and small broom
• flashlight
• battery powered radio
• extra batteries
• water
• snack food
• matches
• extra hats, socks and mittens
• first aid kit with pocket knife
• necessary medications
• blanket(s)
• tow chain or rope
• road salt and sand
• DURING THE STORM,-

• During Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

  • Stay indoors during the storm.
  • Walk carefully on snowy, icy, walkways.
  • Avoid overexertion when shoveling snow. Overexertion can bring on a heart attack—a major cause of death in the winter. If you must shovel snow, stretch before going outside.
  • Keep dry. Change wet clothing frequently to prevent a loss of body heat. Wet clothing loses all of its insulating value and transmits heat rapidly.
  • Watch for signs of frostbite. These include loss of feeling and white or pale appearance in extremities such as fingers, toes, ear lobes, and the tip of the nose. If symptoms are detected, get medical help immediately.
  • Watch for signs of hypothermia. These include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion. If symptoms of hypothermia are detected, get the victim to a warm location, remove wet clothing, warm the center of the body first and give warm, non-alcoholic beverages if the victim is conscious. Get medical help as soon as possible.
  • Drive only if it is absolutely necessary. If you must drive: travel in the day; don't travel alone; keep others informed of your schedule; stay on main roads and avoid back road shortcuts.
  • Let someone know your destination, your route, and when you expect to arrive. If your car gets stuck along the way, help can be sent along your predetermined route.
  • If the pipes freeze, remove any insulation or layers of newspapers and wrap pipes in rags. Completely open all faucets and pour hot water over the pipes, starting where they were most exposed to the cold (or where the cold was most likely to penetrate).
  • Maintain ventilation when using kerosene heaters to avoid build-up of toxic fumes. Refuel kerosene heaters outside and keep them at least three feet from flammable objects.
  • Conserve fuel, if necessary, by keeping your residence cooler than normal. Temporarily close off heat to some rooms.
  IF STRANDED IN CAR-
  
  
  

  If a blizzard traps you in the car:

  • Pull off the highway. Turn on hazard lights and hang a distress flag from the radio antenna or window.
  • Remain in your vehicle where rescuers are most likely to find you. Do not set out on foot unless you can see a building close by where you know you can take shelter. Be careful; distances are distorted by blowing snow. A building may seem close, but be too far to walk to in deep snow.
  • Run the engine and heater about 10 minutes each hour to keep warm. When the engine is running, open a downwind window slightly for ventilation and periodically clear snow from the exhaust pipe. This will protect you from possible carbon monoxide poisoning.
  • Exercise to maintain body heat, but avoid overexertion. In extreme cold, use road maps, seat covers, and floor mats for insulation. Huddle with passengers and use your coat for a blanket.
  • Take turns sleeping. One person should be awake at all times to look for rescue crews.
  • Eat regularly and drink ample fluids to avoid dehydration, but avoid caffeine and alcohol.
  • Be careful not to waste battery power. Balance electrical energy needs - the use of lights, heat, and radio - with supply.
  • Turn on the inside light at night so work crews or rescuers can see you.
  • If stranded in a remote area, stomp large block letters in an open area spelling out HELP or SOS and line with rocks or tree limbs to attract the attention of rescue personnel who may be surveying the area by airplane.
  • Leave the car and proceed on foot - if necessary - once the blizzard passes.

  
  

Akshay Deoras

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

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Potentially Major Storm system to affect North India,UAE,Oman

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A very intense and powerful extra-tropical storm system ( WD for India) is shaping up at the European-Asian border and is all set to move through the Asian countries ultimately resulting in rounds of severe weather for West Asia nations including India. Lets have a look at this system

Attached above is the 200mb imagery showing an intense trough digging in. The trough is having intense upper level jet velocity ranging from around 140-170mph or an average of around 120kt!
The peak upper air jet at present lies across the Gulf countries particularly across UAE,Saudi Arabia.

The Mid level atmosphere is also reflecting trough like feature especially a blend of positive vorticity region ( a region of red line stretching across Central Saudi Arabia).

The "C" shaped red coloured region in the top left of image is the main region (WD) which will produce heavy rain/snow in India

As this region connected to the upper level trough moves eastwards with time, a slightly rough sea can be expected in the Gulf of Oman. Considering the instability, it appears that convection with thunderstorms and blowing sand/dust due to winds will be likely across UAE,Dubai and Coastal Oman including Muscat on 2-3rd Feb 2013.

Readers from these regions are requested to send the photos of storm/rainfall to METD WEATHER on the facebook page or by mailing them to metdweather@live.com

As the mid level system moves forward, it will intensify over Western Pakistan region and surrounding nations.

The system will produce its effect in India from around 3rd Feb 2013.

3rd Feb 2013- 
Snowfall initiates in Jammu and Kashmir in the higher reaches. It spreads across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal over the night period and continuing later on as well whereas lower regions get rainfall. 

Punjab,Haryana may receive some showers due to it. 
Due to lower instability, convection is not expected and hence no thunderstorm

* Saurashtra also will receive light rains or a/two showers

4th Feb 2013
The system intensifies in the neighbouring nation and the result is that snowfall increases in J&K,HP,Uttaranchal,Nepal etc including Srinagar and tourists places around

* First Avalanche threat will develop for J&K Higher reaches. 
* Snowfall will close the Jammu-Srinagar Highway also the already closed Leh-Srinagar highway

Rainfall also spreads southwards in North India. Thunderstorms expected in plains due to the developing instability 

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains

Delhi-NCR, NE Rajasthan,Northern MP,Western UP etc to receive rains. 

5th Feb 2013

** Avalanche threat will spread across Himachal,J&K . 

** Very heavy snowfall will continue in the regions keeping the roads closed. Minor flight disruptions likely across Srinagar 

* Rainfall will continue in North India plains with isolated thunderstorms and hailstorms as well with reduced maximum temperatures due to cloud cover and rains. 

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains. 

6th Feb-7th Feb 2013

Rainfall/Snowfall will decrease in North India. However due to high snow accumulations avalanche threat continues with fog in lower plains including SIACHEN GLACIER,Base Camp etc. 

The system will then move away from India.

Thus due to very very heavy snowfall in J&K,Himachal and Uttaranchal the daily life will be hit hardly.

Major Western disturbance to impact North India. High snow accumulations likely

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster,

The Western Disturbance of the year may be here! 

****** THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR HIGHER REGIONS OF HIMACHAL PRADESH,J&K and Uttaranchal DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATION. 

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS MUST START PREPARING ACCORDINGLY BY STOCKING FOOD,WATER ETC BEFORE-THE SNOWFALL BEGINS ********

Attached above is the 72hr GFS 500mb ( base 00z,15th Jan). The noteworthy feature is the giant positive Vorticity region having the 500mb geopotential heights as low as 558dam! It's the western disturbance which is all set to impact North India and Nepal in the coming days. 

The lower the geopotential height as compared to other heights on the same longitude,the  more intense any storm is. 

Attached above is the precipitation expected from this system. 

Thus starting from Thursday,17th Jan very heavy snowfall is expected in J&K,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal and Nepal TILL 19th Jan 2013 

Here are some expected highlights- 

* VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN IN HIGHER REACHES OF J&K like Srinagar,Gulmarg,Sonamarg.Pahalgam,Zoji La Pass, Drass,Kargil and Leh and around in the same period 

* THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF AVALANCHE IN HIGH MOUNTAIN AREAS ESPECIALLY SIACHEN Glacier

* JAMMU- SRINAGAR HIGHWAY WILL BE CLOSED IN THIS TENURE. Minor flight disruptions likely at Srinagar on 18th Jan. 

* In Himachal Pradesh also very heavy snowfall will take place and also across Uttaranchal higher reaches,Nepal as well

* Heavy Rains along with an isolated threat of cloudburst across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal and lower Nepal considering higher vertical vorticities.

* North Indian plains like Punjab,Haryana,Delhi-NCR, few regions in North-Western UP ( Lucknow and around) will receive thunderstorm with rains especially on 17th and 18th Jan. Considering the higher instability, hailstorm also seems likely in Punjab in this period. 

* Min temperature will rise during this period in these areas due to cloud cover

IF READERS TAKE SOME PHOTOS OF THE SNOWFALL OR THUNDERSTORM IN PLAINS, THEN PLEASE SHARE WITH METD WEATHER ON FACEBOOK OR BY MAILING TO metdweather@live.com 

As I am not well, I am unable to provide a detailed forecast.....

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Major Weather change expected in Central,Southern India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster,

Nagpur recorded a minimum temperature of 6.3C on Wednesday,26th Dec 2012. However there is going to be a major weather change in the coming days in India

Bay Low Pressure system-

Attached is the 850mb GFS Map of Base 00z,28th Dec.

One can see a broad patch of anti-clockwise winds with green shading across Sri Lanka. This is the Bay low pressure system which shall pump moisture across mainland of India resulting into precipitation in the southern states-

Above is the +48hr precipitation forecast showing rainfall across Kerala,Tamil Nadu,Coastal Andhra Pradesh and some interior Karnataka.
The precipitation shall increase across Karnataka coastal areas eventually spreading into Goa on the New Year eve

If does appear that Goa may get light rain spell on 30th Dec 2012 and some on 31st Dec as well. The meteograms aren't agreeing however..

As the Bay system progresses westwards, a High Pressure system is expected to develop across Orissa at the 850mb level which shall steer the moisture and push it Northwards.

Minimum temperature in Central India will be rising nowonwards as the direction of the winds have changed.

The precipitation will spread into Southern Maharashtra with areas like Pune and subsequent interior Western Maharashtra will receive rains with rise in minimum temperature.
This shall happen on Monday,31st Dec 2012.

Pune which witnessed a min temperature around 7C shall have relatively warmer nights though a heavy rainfall event is unlikely due to the scattered precipitation tendency there..

As the moisture pumps further, it shall weaken in terms of Relative Humidity (RH) however be that much to bring cloudy skies in Nagpur and Central India.

The min temperatures will rise to around 15-17C in Nagpur taking away the winter effect in the city. Due to moisture amounts and slight unstable atmosphere, clouding shall be there in the city during ( Partial) 31st Dec and then increasing on 1st and 2nd Dec ( As of present GFS).

However, there seems to be a little problem with the initial Skew-T of that period

Above is the 1st Jan 2013 SKEW-T for Nagpur region. Its clearly visible in those indices that CAP or CIN will be greater than the CAPE ( CIN = 102 J/Kg)..
This situation depicts a non buoyant atmosphere where due to thermal inversion, buoyancy is lost thus a parcel of air ( moisture embedded) will sink as it rises due to which chance of convection and thunderstorm looks minimal now
However, the SKEW-T can change and moreover such CAP can break if there is abundant sunshine in the morning on the 1st Jan.

Situation on this rainfall event shall be more clear in the coming period

GFS shows a precipitation in Nagpur ( which then must be non convective) on 1st and 2nd Jan

Trace Amt rain can be expected on 31st Dec night ( As of 28th Dec GFS)

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND FOLLOW METD WEATHER FACBOOK FOR MORE DETAILS--

Another powerful Western Disturbance all set to impact North India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Another powerful western disturbance is arriving towards North India. The 12z,11th Dec forecast models are indicating that the resulting precipitation (Although snowfall was reported in some stations of Himachal Pradesh today) will initiate from Wednesday,12th Dec 2012 ( a perfect 12-12-12) and will continue till around 15th Dec morning with the peak of the activity on Thursday,13th Dec 2012

Above- The GFS 700mb precipitation for 72hr (13th Dec 2012).

The change which is appearing from this simulation is that the precipitation ( in terms of snow and rain) shall be heavier towards the Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand side as compared to Jammu and Kashmir

Thus the snowfall shall be heavier in Himachal Pradesh than Jammu and Kashmir but it doesnt meant that J&K will not get a heavy snowfall event. Below is the expected scenario

* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR,HIMACHAL PRADESH,UTTARAKHAND FROM 12TH DEC TO 14TH DEC WITH THE PEAK ON 13TH DEC

* DISRUPTIONS OF TRAFFIC POSSIBLE ON THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY,SRINAGAR-LEH HIGHWAY ( ROAD ALREADY CLOSED)

*SRINAGAR CITY MAY FINALLY SEE A SNOWFALL ON 13TH DEC 2012

* GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM TO WITNESS HEAVY SNOWFALL

* SHIMLA,MANALI AND OTHER CITIES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH TO RECEIVE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 

* RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH INDIAN PLAINS ESPECIALLY PUNJAB,HARYANA,UTTARAKHAND,HIMACHAL PRADESH

* DELHI,NCR MAY GET ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. 

IF ANYONE WANTS TO SUBMIT THE SNOW IMAGES THEN THE IMAGES ( WITH DETAILS LIKE LOCATION,TIME OF IMAGE) MUST BE MAILED TO 

metdweather@live.com
OR 
SUBMIT ON FACEBOOK-

facebook.com/deorasakshay

THE IMAGES WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THE BLOG

Powerful Western Disturbance to impact North India bringing snowfall!

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

After a very prolonged gap, a powerful Western Disturbance will be striking North India from tomorrow onwards i.e 28th Nov 2012

Attached above is the 48hr projected base 00z,27th Nov 700mb vorticity coupled with the precipitation.. One can see that the rainfall amount will be very heavy (snowfall as well) in J&K prominently in Central,Western J&K.

With temperatures already in the freezing level, snowfall will happen on a heavy level basis in J&K and I suspect light to Moderate across Himachal Pradesh starting 28th Nov and continuing on reduced estimates on 29th Nov

Usually such western disturbances bring rains in Northern Plains like Punjab,Haryana,NCR New Delhi however with this setup, its unlikely that these regions will receive heavy rains.

On Thursday (29th Nov), I suspect some cloud cover for the Northern Plains with isolated rainfall chances (less chance though) which may not bring a much change in the weather

*** Srinagar City will also receive THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ON 28TH NOV LATE PERIOD,29TH NOV. THIS SNOWFALL EVEN MAY CLOSE THE LEH-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY AROUND ZOJILA-PASS***

*** Jammu-Srinagar highway may also get traffic disruption*** 

GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM ETC WILL BE DECORATED BY SNOW IN THIS EVENT***

RAINFALL EXPECTED IN OMAN,UAE-

Meanwhile another short wave trough shall arrive from Western regions coming over Saudi Arabia bringing rains around 29th Nov 2012 and then moving across UAE-Oman  brining rains there around 30th Nov 2012,1st Dec 2012

Thus cities like Muscat,Dubai etc will receive rains (along with parts like SE Oman) in this period

Folks from Muscat,Dubai can send the rainfall images to METD WEATHER on facebook
facebook.com/deorasakshay


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES