Double trouble heading for Jammu and Kashmir

BLOG EDITION- http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/double-trouble-heading-jammu-and-kashmir

*** THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION *** 

*** Considering the approaching rainfall event, we advise the people to suspend their travel to ‪#‎Srinagar‬, ‪#‎Kashmir‬ till April 6th *** 

*** This is a brief pause of rains. People should not get misguided by it and ignore warnings as similar weather conditions will start from Wednesday, 1st April 2015*** 

After a brief pause, heavy rains will resume on Wednesday

March started with a bang. It will also end with a bang. More rains are on the way for Jammu and Kashmir. The anticipated western disturbance and upper air trough have produced heavy rainfall in the state, particularly in the Kashmir valley and in and around Jammu.

In the past 24 hours (till 8:30 am IST on March 30), Katra had received heavy rainfall, measuring 139 mm. It was followed by 124 mm at Batote in Ramban district, 98.1 mm in Jammu, 72 mm in Banihal, 70 mm in Qazigund, 58 mm (precipitation) in Pahalgam, 50.6 mm in Srinagar, 40.1 mm in Gulmarg and 65.8 mm in Bhaderwah in Doda district . While the absolute amounts seem too low to trigger floods, the topography of the state makes it more vulnerable to flooding.Urbanisation has led to the collapse of natural drainage systems in Srinagar, causing an increase in water logging.

Reports of floods are emerging from Srinagar and other areas. Many areas in Jammu have been waterlogged due to rains. Mudslides have been reported from areas like Budgam and the state government has declared a flood. Two teams of 100 personnel of the National Disaster Response Force have been sent to Srinagar and hundreds of people have already been evacuated. Landslides have also been reported on the Jammu-Srinagar highway. It has remained shut today for the third day in a row. To make the things worse, Jhelum river has started swelling due to heavy rains. On Monday morning, it had crossed the danger level in Srinagar and Sangam areas of south Kashmir, as per reports. Schools have been closed for two days and board and university exams have been postponed. 

The effect of western disturbance is, however, receding. At the time of writing this post, Srinagar and Jammu were reporting a partly cloudy weather. As per the GFS weather model, the weather in the state will continue to remain a little cloudy on Monday and Tuesday. Light rains or drizzle can be expected in the state. This brief pause in rainfall will help in the receding of water from places like Srinagar.  Even the water level of Jhelum will decrease a little due to the absence of rains.

But come Wednesday and rains will once again commence in the currently affected areas. Rainfall will continue in periods till April 6. According to current estimates, western Jammu and Kashmir will witness heavy rains on Wednesday and Friday. Rains will decrease from April 4. 

This will likely bring back water logging and cause an upsurge in the water level of the Jhelum. As the river is already seeing an upsurge, even a little rainfall is likely to make the river exceed the danger level again. The authorities claim that, after last year’s flood, they strengthened the embankments and no breaches have been reported so far.

There will also be heavy snowfall in the higher reaches, causing landslides and avalanches in prone areas. This will keep the Jammu-Srinagar highway closed during the period from April 1 to 6. Srinagar airport may also see disruptions during this period due to water logging.

People living in these areas must stay alert. Following are the precautions people must follow: 

• Keep with you water (at least a 5-day supply), food (at least a 5-day supply of non-perishable, easy-to-prepare food), flashlight, battery-powered radio, extra batteries, first aid kit, medications (7-day supply), cell phone with chargers, family and emergency contact information, extra cash, emergency blanket, tools/supplies for securing your home, extra clothing, hat and sturdy shoes and rain gear.
• Listen to area radio and television stations for authentic details. 
• Be prepared to evacuate at a moment’s notice. Stay away from landslide- and avalanche-prone zones. 
• When a flood or flash flood warning is issued for your area, head for higher ground and stay there.
• Stay away from floodwaters and the river Jhelum. If you come upon a flowing stream where water is above your ankles, stop, turn around and go another way. Six inches of swiftly moving water can sweep you off of your feet.
• If you come upon a flooded road while driving, turn around and go another way. If you are caught on a flooded road and waters are rising rapidly around you, get out of the car quickly and move to higher ground. Most cars can be swept away by less than two feet of moving water.
• Keep children out of the water. They are curious and often lack judgment about running water or contaminated water.
• Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognise flood danger.

Akshay Deoras is an independent weather forecaster

CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE LEHAR WRAPPING IN DRY AIR?

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster,

Today afternoon, Tropical Storm LEHAR intensified to a Category 1 Cyclone as its max sustained winds reached 65 Kt and as of this post continue to be at 65Kt as the cyclone tracked west-northwest at around 07Kt (13km/hr) in the Bay of Bengal about 965km SE of Vizag,1100km east-south east of Machilipatnam,1050km east - south east of Kakinada,Andhra Pradesh and having tracked 200km from Port Blair after bringing heavy rains and winds in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. However I am personally not convinced with the latest image of the system and some more observations, lets have a look here

Dry Air-

Like mentioned in yesterday's blog post, the amount of dry air entering the Bay of Bengal from East/North East India is increasing every hour as Cyclone LEHAR continues to act like a magnet doing this job. A 24hr comparison of the CIMSS Total Precipitable Water (TPW)clearly shows an increase in the spread of dry air which even now seems to be wrapping around the system in its northern periphery.

The topmost image shows TPW as of yesterday and the below image shows the latest precipitable water. One can see that blue,green region has moved further down (southward) as the Cyclone LEHAR presently at 12.5N,91.0E continues to move NW. Possibly the dry air is interacting with the outer rainbands- Northern and North-Western rainbands of LEHAR as can be possibly inferred from this latest IR-NHC imagery via CIMSS

The 1330UTC obtained NHC enhancement image shows a more or less oval structure of the CDO (Central Dense Overcast) feature which continues to obscure the LLCC. An animation of the IR imagery shows the centre is losing the convergence. It also indicated a possible exposed LLCC (although for a short time) and that the convection is possibly re-organising around a new centre marked by a very favoured wind field as can be seen in this image

The above IR BD image has contours of lower air convergence imposed on it. An increasingly favourable 30Kt region is developing coupled by an excellent poleward flow of 40Kt peak.
SST continues to be very favourable, in the 29C range which is overpowering the moderate 20kt wind shear in the region.

An analysis of all indicates that dry air has likely collided with the outer northern rainbands of Cyclone LEHAR and the convection is re-organising around a new centre and the system is overall maintaining its intensity. Over the next 12hrs, Cyclone LEHAR shall intensify gradually although I don't expect a Rapid Intensification yet considering the fact that wind shear are forecasted to remain moderate all the time in LEHAR's journey. Dry air wrapping shall be a factor to watch out and hence still I don't expect it to intensify beyond Category 2 which shall happen later tomorrow,26th Nov.

Given the fact that dry air interaction will act as a barrier and the SST will be decreasing beyond  36hrs from now ( morning of 27th Nov 2013), LEHAR shall make a landfall as a Category 2 cyclone close to Kakinada,Andhra Pradesh on the morning of Thursday,28th Nov 2013. The state of sea in the Bay of Bengal shall remain ROUGH in this period and hence fishermen shouldn't venture out in the sea till Friday,29th Nov 2013.


More details are awaited like potential damage to Andhra Pradesh coast which will enable to put the graphic map so STAY TUNED!!!

Tropical Storm Lehar approaches Andaman and Nicobar Islands amidst future troubles

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The newly formed Tropical Storm Lehar is approaching the Andaman and Nicobar Islands now and at the moment passing between Port Blair and Little Andaman Island as can be seen in this IR-NHC image via CIMSS taken at 1330UT,24th Nov.

At the moment, based on DVORAK estimates, Tropical Storm Lehar has peak winds of 55kt i.e about 100km/hr and over the past 6hrs has tracked NW with an increased velocity of 12kt or ~22km/hr (Previously it was tracking by about 15km/hr). Although a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) feature seems to be visible now in the IR-NHC image, Lehar has started running out of trouble as some of its vital parameters at the moment are not supporting it- although it continues to maintain its intensity and has intensified by 10kt in the past few hours.

The primary concern coming now is the sliding drier air from the North (from the mainland of India into Northern Bay of Bengal). Here is a comparison of the latest and pre latest Total Precipitable Water image-

The topmost image shows the Precipitable Water Content- an indicator of the moisture in the atmosphere some hours ago. The area to look for is North of Bay of Bengal where you can see a triangular region of purple,blue,green shades. Now see that region again in the bottommost image. Its very clear that the dry air is sliding down from the mainland into Bay of Bengal and apparently seems to be interacting with the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Lehar. Dry air is a kind of poison to such thermodynamic systems- Tropical Storm Lehar as it chokes off the thermal engine which leads to weakening of the storm. We are monitoring this region of drier air.. The reason why this dry air is getting pushed south is being discussed. If it slides further south, within 24hrs it will interact with Tropical Storm Lehar and hence the rate of its intensification shall decrease.

The second trouble thats coming up for Lehar is the decreased lower air convergence over the last few hours. Low air convergence is an essential factor for cyclones to intensify. From the past ~25kt low air convergence, the convergence now as per CIMSS stands out to be barely 10-15kt and is offset the CDO/LLCC i.e is SE of the centre of the tropical storm.

IT does appear that over say 12hrs or so the low convergence will be decreasing significantly.
The situation at the upper level is more or less the same. The system had an excellent poleward outflow of 60kt last night which has dropped now to 30kt and the tendency seems to be decreasing ahead as well amidst a moderate wind shear of 20kt...

It does appear that Tropical Storm Lehar won't be intensifying for sometime now, say during the next 12hrs or so. It probably will be disorganise a little given the decreasing convergence. Probably the pressure at the centre which is 996mb shall rise littlebit.

The fate of Tropical Storm Lehar will entirely depend on the above parameters as it churns in a warm sea with present sea surface temperature of 29C. The subtropical ridge (STR) aloft which is steering the system is at the present towards north of the system and over the next 24hrs, the system will be riding under the STR as it becomes parallel to the latitude (non inclined) and after 72hr, the STR shall be south of the system. Unlike Cyclone Phailin, TS Lehar has some factors to non stop affect it (given above ofcourse) and later the cooler sea offshore AP-Odisha coast.

As a result, its being inferred that Tropical Storm Lehar will intensify to A MAXIMUM CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE. This intensification,rather Rapid Intensification shall start after it gets sufficient land clearance,say later tomorrow,25th Nov

Regarding the landfall position, the cone of uncertainty is still high however there are increased chances that the system will land in Andhra Pradesh (South of Vizag) : Near Kakinada on the afternoon of Thursday,28th Nov 2013. Once we have an increased confidence over the landfall area, alert map will be displayed..

Tropical Storm Lehar however shall make a landfall as a Category 2 cyclone (present estimates) with maximum winds of around 175km/hr!

STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR EAST INDIA- ODISHA UNDER THE THREAT

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

JOIN METD WEATHER FACEBOOK FOR LATEST DETAILS- facebook.com/deorasakshay

The second part of 2013 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season has started with a bang with a new Tropical Storm (we call it 02B as per JTWC) already born in the Bay of Bengal. This new Tropical Storm 02B in North Andaman Sea near 13N,93.5E approximately 1200km east-south east of Visakhapatnam already has wind of 35KT (and hence already lies in the Tropical Storm Category of the Saffir Simpson Scale) 

Seen above is the latest IR-NHC imagery of the Tropical Storm 02B via CIMSS showing the system as Invest (I). Distinct banding features are visible west of the low pressure as the LLCC (Low Level Circulation Centre) is trying to organise in the warm Bay of Bengal having SST of ~29C. LLCC is also becoming more exposed and consolidating also. At the surface level too, the system continues to enjoy lower southern convergence of ~30kt and the convection continues to boost up given the excellent upper air divergence to the south of the system as the system is tracking along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge although its experiencing moderately sheared environment to its south-west.

Already heavy rains have been reported in Andaman and Nicobar Is. Entire Andaman and Nicobar Is will continue to get heavy rains today with high velocity winds as the Tropical Storm intensifies close to the area. After the Tropical Storm moves NW tomorrow (10th Oct) onwards, there will be a decline in the rainfall in this area. 

The Tropical Storm 02B shall be curving to NW as it steers in a moisture rich,higher sea temperature of Bay of Bengal considering the available TPW (Total Precipitable Water). Atmospheric conditions also are expected to be conducive for this Tropical Storm to intensify to Category 1 (say with peak winds of around 80KT) around tomorrow,10th Oct afternoon or so and amidst produce "Rough Sea" in the Bay of Bengal in the highlighted region of METD WEATHER alert. Models are converging for landfall of this system along the Odisha coast on Saturday,12th Oct 2013 (Although landfall like conditions shall start from afternoon-evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013). 

The approximate landfall of this system seems to be around Brahmapur in Odisha however landfall like conditions (which includes heavy rains, gusty winds prominently) will be widely experienced along the entire Odisha coast even stretching upto North East coast of Andhra Pradesh which is bordering Odisha around Friday-Saturday. 

In the forecast map, METD WEATHER has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for East India Coast that prominently includes Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and heavy rainfall extension in Jharkhand also (May stretch upto Bihar on 13/14th Oct 2013). 

IMPACTS- 

*Damage to boats,ships in the "Rough Sea" or in the ports of Odisha (Rough Sea starts now and shall continue till 14th Oct 2013. Fisherman are also advised now to enter the Bay of Bengal till 13/14th Oct 2013. 

* Considering the fact that as of now the Tropical Storm will intensify to Category 1, widespread damage is likely along Odisha coast initially and later on moving into interior (particularly near the landfall area). Damage shall start from afternoon/evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013.

* Extensive damage to huts,trees and weak settlements is likely during the landfall and there exists a high flood threat for Odisha coast and interior as the weakened system (Tropical Depression will bring heavy rains).

* Disruptions of rail,air,road traffic is possible around the capital Bhubaneshwar. 

PRECAUTIONS (Via BOM: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) 

When a cyclone watch is issued (Extended for North East AP and areas in orange colour in the alert map) 

• Re-check your property for any loose material and tie down (or fill with water) all large, relatively light items such as boats and rubbish bins.
• Fill vehicles' fuel tanks. Check your emergency kit and fill water containers.
• Ensure household members know which is the strongest part of the house and what to do in the event of a cyclone warning or an evacuation.
• Tune to your local radio/TV for further information and warnings.
• Check that neighbours are aware of the situation and are preparing.

When a cyclone warning is issued (Odisha coast) 

Depending on official advice provided by your local authorities as the event evolves; the following actions may be warranted.

• If requested by local authorities, collect children from school or childcare centre and go home.
• Park vehicles under solid shelter (hand brake on and in gear).
• Put wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in your pool or inside with other loose items.
• Close shutters or board-up or heavily tape all windows. Draw curtains and lock doors.
• Pack an evacuation kit of warm clothes, essential medications, baby formula, nappies,
  valuables, important papers, photos and mementos in waterproof bags to be taken with
  your emergency kit. Large/heavy valuables could be protected in a strong cupboard.
• Remain indoors (with your pets). Stay tuned to your local radio/TV for further information.
• DON'T TRAVEL TO COASTAL AREAS TO SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

Monsoon LIKELY TO BE STALLED after entering Kerala

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

METD WEATHER's Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO) is already out! Check the monsoon forecast for your region here  (PUBLIC VERSION)

The monsoon has already arrived in Andaman and Nicobar Is and may be at the doorstep of India but the wait should be more as was expected and mentioned in the forecast.

As per the latest guidance from 00z, 28th May 2013 GFS, a low pressure system is mingling offshore Yemen-Oman as can be seen from this IMD IR imagery

One can clearly see the system just touching Yemen-Oman in the Arabian Sea region which is still having intense convection as being suggested by the two dense reflectivity (compact white regions)... If one believes the track of this system, the system will have a very strange and mingling motion in the Arabian Sea as it will move now south then again intensify head ENE then again WNW as a low pressure system prominently.. Convergence is doubtful with it as the GFS precipitation forecast does show many rain bands around the system and hence not consolidating as a Tropical Depression/Cyclone in the coming days. 

The forecast says that the system will move towards Oman ( Muscat ) as an insignificant system around 3/4th June 2013 and will likely bring rains there. We will update that on our facebook page as it comes in the Short range forecast panel. Some light clouds will continue in Muscat occasionally due to the system apart from rainfall in the shore of Oman-Yemen ( facing Arabian Sea)

However, this system will cause a big problem as feared! Lets have a look at the 850mb map showing the moisture. 

The top-most image is of the the present conditions ( 00z,28th May 2013) where this system can be noticed as anti-clockwise circulation region offshore Yemen-Oman. We can clearly see that the moisture at that level is being spread over Arabian Sea into West of India ( As the Somali Current has intensified allowing this to happen). However when one looks at the bottom image of the forecasted conditions on 2/3rd June 2013, one can clearly see the system gaining size ( hence strength) and pulling moisture in it. As a result, the amount of moisture in the Arabian Sea will decrease and subsequently the monsoon advance will get stalled for India ( Excluding the Bay Bengal branch)

In fact, NE India will see the monsoon advancing on time and hence eastern NE India states like Mizoram etc will witness the onset ON TIME AS MENTIONED BY METD WEATHER i.e around 1-3rd June 2013

The SW monsoon also will hit Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu that tenure itself but then as the system dominates, the advance is likely going to be affected.. We will wait for more details to come but the chance of happening this looks high as of now.

The monsoon will revive after a 5-6 day gap and hence advance into Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh by 10th June 2013 ( As per METD WEATHER's forecast).

II Bay System

Rains are being reported in Orissa and subsequent East India as a low pressure system continues to churn in the Bay of Bengal sending pulses towards India. Heavy rainfall ( accumulation over 100mm) is likely in Odisha in the next 48hrs ( prominently between Bhuvaneshwar-Kolkata geographical wise). That system will then move North and bring heavy rains in Western West Bengal,Jharkhand and southern Bihar by 1st June or so. 

People of Odisha and West Bengal coast must be attentive due to this system's movement and the rainfall due to it. 

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED IN NORTH EAST INDIA. LIFE THREATENING STORMS LIKELY

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

A very severe weather is in store for India and Bangladesh starting from tomorrow (Monday)-15th April 2013 lasting till atleast 18th April 2013

Synopsis-
Multiple severe weather events are expected in a wide corridor which stretches from West Bengal-Bangladesh Border, Bangladesh ejecting into the North East states of India particularly Tripura, Meghalaya,Manipur,Mizoram,Nagaland as well. The models are in agreement that an unstable air mass will persist in these regions along with formation of positive vortex regions, excellent thermodynamic conditions supporting stronger thunderstorms/isolated supercells towards the NE India. Here is the day wise scenario expected-

** Rainfall expected in Assam in this period**

Monday/15th April 2013

Thunderstorms with rainfall is expected in Southern,SouthEastern Bangladesh, bordering Meghalaya particularly. Greater instability persists towards Bangladesh coastal side allowing moisture incursion and higher instability. Chance of hailstorm and strong winds towards the later part of the day in these sectors

Tuesday/16th April 2013
Greater instability arrives in the region and severe thunderstorms are likely in the entire regions like Eastern Bangladesh,Tripura with rainfall in the bordering areas. The people in Mizoram may get rains towards the night. Hailstorms, strong lightning with rains expected.

Wednesday/17th April 2013- Thursday/18th April 2013
Extreme instability will persists in entire of Bangladesh with CAPE over 3000J/Kg, LI = -7, TT over 55! Possibly, very severe thunderstorms accompanied by isolated supercells are likely. Even a tornado chance can't be ruled out on this day around Eastern Bangladesh or moving into Tripura-Mizoram province. 
** People must pay special attention towards the weather here and try to remain safe**
** Severe storms can be expected**

Rainfall is likely to shift towards west bengal after that

FOLLOW METD WEATHER FACEBOOK FOR DETAILS

Potentially Major Storm system to affect North India,UAE,Oman

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A very intense and powerful extra-tropical storm system ( WD for India) is shaping up at the European-Asian border and is all set to move through the Asian countries ultimately resulting in rounds of severe weather for West Asia nations including India. Lets have a look at this system

Attached above is the 200mb imagery showing an intense trough digging in. The trough is having intense upper level jet velocity ranging from around 140-170mph or an average of around 120kt!
The peak upper air jet at present lies across the Gulf countries particularly across UAE,Saudi Arabia.

The Mid level atmosphere is also reflecting trough like feature especially a blend of positive vorticity region ( a region of red line stretching across Central Saudi Arabia).

The "C" shaped red coloured region in the top left of image is the main region (WD) which will produce heavy rain/snow in India

As this region connected to the upper level trough moves eastwards with time, a slightly rough sea can be expected in the Gulf of Oman. Considering the instability, it appears that convection with thunderstorms and blowing sand/dust due to winds will be likely across UAE,Dubai and Coastal Oman including Muscat on 2-3rd Feb 2013.

Readers from these regions are requested to send the photos of storm/rainfall to METD WEATHER on the facebook page or by mailing them to metdweather@live.com

As the mid level system moves forward, it will intensify over Western Pakistan region and surrounding nations.

The system will produce its effect in India from around 3rd Feb 2013.

3rd Feb 2013- 
Snowfall initiates in Jammu and Kashmir in the higher reaches. It spreads across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal over the night period and continuing later on as well whereas lower regions get rainfall. 

Punjab,Haryana may receive some showers due to it. 
Due to lower instability, convection is not expected and hence no thunderstorm

* Saurashtra also will receive light rains or a/two showers

4th Feb 2013
The system intensifies in the neighbouring nation and the result is that snowfall increases in J&K,HP,Uttaranchal,Nepal etc including Srinagar and tourists places around

* First Avalanche threat will develop for J&K Higher reaches. 
* Snowfall will close the Jammu-Srinagar Highway also the already closed Leh-Srinagar highway

Rainfall also spreads southwards in North India. Thunderstorms expected in plains due to the developing instability 

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains

Delhi-NCR, NE Rajasthan,Northern MP,Western UP etc to receive rains. 

5th Feb 2013

** Avalanche threat will spread across Himachal,J&K . 

** Very heavy snowfall will continue in the regions keeping the roads closed. Minor flight disruptions likely across Srinagar 

* Rainfall will continue in North India plains with isolated thunderstorms and hailstorms as well with reduced maximum temperatures due to cloud cover and rains. 

*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains. 

6th Feb-7th Feb 2013

Rainfall/Snowfall will decrease in North India. However due to high snow accumulations avalanche threat continues with fog in lower plains including SIACHEN GLACIER,Base Camp etc. 

The system will then move away from India.

Thus due to very very heavy snowfall in J&K,Himachal and Uttaranchal the daily life will be hit hardly.

Major Weather change expected in Central,Southern India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster,

Nagpur recorded a minimum temperature of 6.3C on Wednesday,26th Dec 2012. However there is going to be a major weather change in the coming days in India

Bay Low Pressure system-

Attached is the 850mb GFS Map of Base 00z,28th Dec.

One can see a broad patch of anti-clockwise winds with green shading across Sri Lanka. This is the Bay low pressure system which shall pump moisture across mainland of India resulting into precipitation in the southern states-

Above is the +48hr precipitation forecast showing rainfall across Kerala,Tamil Nadu,Coastal Andhra Pradesh and some interior Karnataka.
The precipitation shall increase across Karnataka coastal areas eventually spreading into Goa on the New Year eve

If does appear that Goa may get light rain spell on 30th Dec 2012 and some on 31st Dec as well. The meteograms aren't agreeing however..

As the Bay system progresses westwards, a High Pressure system is expected to develop across Orissa at the 850mb level which shall steer the moisture and push it Northwards.

Minimum temperature in Central India will be rising nowonwards as the direction of the winds have changed.

The precipitation will spread into Southern Maharashtra with areas like Pune and subsequent interior Western Maharashtra will receive rains with rise in minimum temperature.
This shall happen on Monday,31st Dec 2012.

Pune which witnessed a min temperature around 7C shall have relatively warmer nights though a heavy rainfall event is unlikely due to the scattered precipitation tendency there..

As the moisture pumps further, it shall weaken in terms of Relative Humidity (RH) however be that much to bring cloudy skies in Nagpur and Central India.

The min temperatures will rise to around 15-17C in Nagpur taking away the winter effect in the city. Due to moisture amounts and slight unstable atmosphere, clouding shall be there in the city during ( Partial) 31st Dec and then increasing on 1st and 2nd Dec ( As of present GFS).

However, there seems to be a little problem with the initial Skew-T of that period

Above is the 1st Jan 2013 SKEW-T for Nagpur region. Its clearly visible in those indices that CAP or CIN will be greater than the CAPE ( CIN = 102 J/Kg)..
This situation depicts a non buoyant atmosphere where due to thermal inversion, buoyancy is lost thus a parcel of air ( moisture embedded) will sink as it rises due to which chance of convection and thunderstorm looks minimal now
However, the SKEW-T can change and moreover such CAP can break if there is abundant sunshine in the morning on the 1st Jan.

Situation on this rainfall event shall be more clear in the coming period

GFS shows a precipitation in Nagpur ( which then must be non convective) on 1st and 2nd Jan

Trace Amt rain can be expected on 31st Dec night ( As of 28th Dec GFS)

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND FOLLOW METD WEATHER FACBOOK FOR MORE DETAILS--

TROPICAL CYCLONE/DEPRESSION ALERTS FOR INDIA

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

"THE TROPICAL CYCLONE/DEPRESSION ACTIVITY BOTH IN THE ARBIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL IS EXPECTED. STORM TRACKS CAN THREATEN INDIA"

"" FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, FOLLOW METD WEATHER ON FACEBOOK"""

The flattened 2012 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season has revived with two candidates. BOB 01 and Tropical Storm Murjan. As METD WEATHER doesn't consider it, lets not discuss those past systems.

I- Bay of Bengal ( BOB)

The above DUNDEE imagery ( IR) spectrum shows massive CB clouds in the Central BOB with cloud tops around -30C at the moment. The imagery is of 0530PM IST. 

Animation (IR) here shows how the system has evolved robustly. 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=WP932012&starting_image=2012WP93_4KMIRIMG_201210270900.GIF

The above imagery shows that the system has organised much as seen from its symmetrical geometry. The system is encountering a building ~10kt convergence at the lower levels with extremely favorable thermodynamic conditions. The system continues to have 20kt upper air divergence with relaxed wind shears (vertical of 05-10kt barely) to support cyclogenesis in the 28-30C SST in the region.

Considering the favoured conditions, it appears that the system is very likely to strengthen further in the next 48hrs before it approaches the Indian SE and Sri-Lanka coast. 

The system can advance further and get a "Tropical Storm" status in the next 48hrs...

Where will it head? 

As per the 12z model which has been consistent, the system will be heading West and will make a landfall in a region between Cuddalore,Tamil Nadu and Northern Sri Lanka region. The area is purposively being kept large to settle the landfall uncertainties.  

The landfall seems to be happening on Oct 30 2012 in the morning - afternoon time ***
*** time may change***

Potential Impacts-

* Rough Seas offshore Tamil Nadu will initiate within 48hrs and will increase as the system approaches. 

* Heavy Rains with strong winds shall initiate in the Eastern Tamil Nadu region from 29th Oct and increasing ( VERY HEAVY) during the landfall. 

-------------------------------

II- ARABIAN SEA

The above DUNDEE imagery showing a wedge region of convection in the Southern Arabian Sea. So far the region hasn't shown any significant convergence and hence the system continues to remain widespread in the Arabian Sea. 

However, as the Bay System ( Possibly will be named Tropical Storm Nilam) will interact with the Arabian System and due to this, the moisture amounts of the Arabian System will increase. 

As the Arabian System moves as per the estimated NW track due to the upper air wind pattern, it seems that system will intensify robustly ( Its having around 15kt lower convergence, 10kt upper air divergence, around 5-10kt vertical wind shear, favoured SST), 

This system has a very high chance of getting converted to a Tropical Storm and due to its path, Western India will face some rainfall events. 

At present, at the upper level a shortwave trough is digging through India and as the trough exits which eventually co-incides with the system's northerly approach, the system will be steered by the jet streams which will start the system turning NE towards India-Sindh region

Model uncertainty exists at the moment however considering the consistency and the upper air pattern, it appears that the system will make a landfall somewhere near NW Gujarat-Sindh border 

on Saturday,Nov 3 2012 *** 

*** timings will vary*** 

The region of landfall is purposively kept wide to avoid uncertainties of the models 

The probable landfall areas ( will be modified suitably)

Entire West Coastal Gujarat,Sindh coast. 

IMPACTS-

Rainfall shall happen across Western Coast of India ( excluding Kerala) with more amounts towards Goa,Western Maharashtra,NW Maharashtra, Central Maharashtra and vicinity. 

LAKSHADWEEP ALSO WILL GET  RAINS AS THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH VERY CLOSE TO IT

Mumbai,Pune etc will get rains around 3-4th Nov period *** 

The landfall impacts shall vary with the storm's intensity hence it shall be notified later on. 

Rough seas shall persists near the Indian coasts

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Severe Thunderstorm rocks Nagpur, interesting weather expected

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

On the late afternoon hours of 2nd Sept 2012, a very powerful thunderstorm passed through the city of Nagpur. The Thunderstorm which arrived from the NNE directions was one of the most intense I have ever intercepted with severe winds especially the wind gusts and blowing rainfall due to the winds. The lightning also was very severe with high frequency as well

In just 30-40mins from the initiation, the rains as measured at the HQ were 33mm whereas the IMD recorded 31mm.

Pre-Warnings regarding the thunderstorm couldn't be given as the Doppler Radar of Nagpur is NOT FUNCTIONAL SINCE NEARLY A MONTH WITH THE WARNING 40KVA EXTERNAL UPS UNSERVICEABLE as the visual based warning approach is restricted to only a short corridor of around 50km where one can't estimate the key factors like the Wind Velocity, Hailcore or the rainfall rate etc.. which only a Doppler Radar can do

This raises this big question that What help is the radar costing in crores giving to the City forecasters?

One can check the radar product here 

I have been asked many times since the thunderstorm what was the reason for it and why such thunderstorm happened despite of having an almost clear morning period.

The above is the 850mb ( Roughly 4000-5000ft) above the ground atmospheric condition as analysed at 12z ( 0530PM IST) on 2nd September 2012. One can see a giant region of anti-clockwise circles or spin. Such anticlockwise spin refers to a region of low pressure for Northern Hemisphere.

Hence one can conclude that there is a broad low pressure region offshore West Bengal-Odisha region as indicated by this cyclonic spin at that atmospheric profile.

The vicinity of such lows acts like a boon for such heavy rainfall events/thunderstorms as they get moisture from such lows from the Bay of Bengal hence forward referred as the Bay Low in this text.

The next ingredient of the Severe Thunderstorm Cookbook is the energy referred as the CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. The parcel of air needs some energy ( A Positive Buoyancy) for lifting. The more the available energy with no factors affecting like Wind Shear, the more will be the condensation of the parcel of air thus forming a cloud type called as CB or Cumulonimbus.

The CAPE in the region ( say 100km NE of Nagpur) was near to 2000J/Kg which is a significant value in terms of the instability is concerned.

So just after 12PM IST, CB clouds started developing NE of Nagpur due to all the favoured conditions out of which we discussed a few above. The CB clouds then approached Nagpur and if we had the RADAR product, I could have confirmed how strong the thunderstorm outflow was.

But why didn't it happen before? The main reason for it is the presence of the mentioned 850mb low pressure region offshore Odisha. It basically had triggered short pulses which later developed into thunderstorms and moved SW. This condition wasnt there in the last week.

Also the above Visible image from DUNDEE showing Nagpur ( Pink dot) just after the squall line thunderstorm passed. Its very clear from the geometry of the thunderstorms that they were linearly organised and a Squall Line Thunderstorm. This must have intensified the Thunderstorm outflow!


The station 42866 which normally records the data for Nagpur did't take any data for that period so I am evaluating the expected wind speed at that moment with the help of some experts. In my opinion, it must have been atleast 70-80km/hr!

Many big trees were uprooted in almost all the parts of the city. I could record a HD video of the event along with this solo picture of the fallen branch of the tree in my area-

Here is the HD video of the Thunderstorm.. Please watch the video in full volume to enjoy the nature's fury-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPSvXvOQ6lQ&list=UUlPxSYxAxMVg5tEUWRbpDIQ&index=1&feature=plcp

OR CLICK HERE

In the latest news, 5 people were reported to have died as the portion of the temple in which they were collapsed on them-

India Weather Update-

The biggest concern at the moment is from a region of a Positive Vorticity at the Mid Tropospheric levels as shown in the above GFS projected ( +72hr) base 12z,2nd Sept 2012 plot. 

The region is at present near North AP offshore. Its nothing but part of the above 850mb anticlockwise spin ( top most image). Thus one can see the region of Positive vorticity approaching Central India once again by Tue-Wed period. 

In that regard, 

Heavy to Very Heavy rains are expected in Northern AP-Southern Chattisgarh 

Even Western,Central AP and Eastern Karnataka will receive heavy rains during the same period i.e Monday and Tuesday 

The rains will then move into Southern,Central Maharashtra including Nagpur on Tuesday onwards continuing on Wednesday as well and gradually spreading into Central and NW Madhya Pradesh. 

Gujarat and Sindh region will get some rains from this system and another already present there around Thu-Friday.

Considering the robust instability present in Central India, Severe Thunderstorms may re-occur and hence you must follow METD WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE for details

Tropical Cyclone/Depression Watch CANCELLED for East,South-East Coast of India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster



*** TROPICAL CYCLONE/DEPRESSION WATCH CANCELLED***
*** AS OF 06Z,21ST APRIL 2012 CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXSIST FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE