METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
A very intense and powerful extra-tropical storm system ( WD for India) is shaping up at the European-Asian border and is all set to move through the Asian countries ultimately resulting in rounds of severe weather for West Asia nations including India. Lets have a look at this system
Attached above is the 200mb imagery showing an intense trough digging in. The trough is having intense upper level jet velocity ranging from around 140-170mph or an average of around 120kt!
The peak upper air jet at present lies across the Gulf countries particularly across UAE,Saudi Arabia.
The Mid level atmosphere is also reflecting trough like feature especially a blend of positive vorticity region ( a region of red line stretching across Central Saudi Arabia).
The "C" shaped red coloured region in the top left of image is the main region (WD) which will produce heavy rain/snow in India
As this region connected to the upper level trough moves eastwards with time, a slightly rough sea can be expected in the Gulf of Oman. Considering the instability, it appears that convection with thunderstorms and blowing sand/dust due to winds will be likely across UAE,Dubai and Coastal Oman including Muscat on 2-3rd Feb 2013.
Readers from these regions are requested to send the photos of storm/rainfall to METD WEATHER on the facebook page or by mailing them to metdweather@live.com
As the mid level system moves forward, it will intensify over Western Pakistan region and surrounding nations.
The system will produce its effect in India from around 3rd Feb 2013.
3rd Feb 2013-
Snowfall initiates in Jammu and Kashmir in the higher reaches. It spreads across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal over the night period and continuing later on as well whereas lower regions get rainfall.
Punjab,Haryana may receive some showers due to it.
Due to lower instability, convection is not expected and hence no thunderstorm
* Saurashtra also will receive light rains or a/two showers
4th Feb 2013
The system intensifies in the neighbouring nation and the result is that snowfall increases in J&K,HP,Uttaranchal,Nepal etc including Srinagar and tourists places around
* First Avalanche threat will develop for J&K Higher reaches.
* Snowfall will close the Jammu-Srinagar Highway also the already closed Leh-Srinagar highway
Rainfall also spreads southwards in North India. Thunderstorms expected in plains due to the developing instability
*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains
Delhi-NCR, NE Rajasthan,Northern MP,Western UP etc to receive rains.
5th Feb 2013
** Avalanche threat will spread across Himachal,J&K .
** Very heavy snowfall will continue in the regions keeping the roads closed. Minor flight disruptions likely across Srinagar
* Rainfall will continue in North India plains with isolated thunderstorms and hailstorms as well with reduced maximum temperatures due to cloud cover and rains.
*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains.
6th Feb-7th Feb 2013
Rainfall/Snowfall will decrease in North India. However due to high snow accumulations avalanche threat continues with fog in lower plains including SIACHEN GLACIER,Base Camp etc.
The system will then move away from India.
Thus due to very very heavy snowfall in J&K,Himachal and Uttaranchal the daily life will be hit hardly.
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
A very intense and powerful extra-tropical storm system ( WD for India) is shaping up at the European-Asian border and is all set to move through the Asian countries ultimately resulting in rounds of severe weather for West Asia nations including India. Lets have a look at this system
The peak upper air jet at present lies across the Gulf countries particularly across UAE,Saudi Arabia.
The Mid level atmosphere is also reflecting trough like feature especially a blend of positive vorticity region ( a region of red line stretching across Central Saudi Arabia).
The "C" shaped red coloured region in the top left of image is the main region (WD) which will produce heavy rain/snow in India
As this region connected to the upper level trough moves eastwards with time, a slightly rough sea can be expected in the Gulf of Oman. Considering the instability, it appears that convection with thunderstorms and blowing sand/dust due to winds will be likely across UAE,Dubai and Coastal Oman including Muscat on 2-3rd Feb 2013.
Readers from these regions are requested to send the photos of storm/rainfall to METD WEATHER on the facebook page or by mailing them to metdweather@live.com
As the mid level system moves forward, it will intensify over Western Pakistan region and surrounding nations.
The system will produce its effect in India from around 3rd Feb 2013.
3rd Feb 2013-
Snowfall initiates in Jammu and Kashmir in the higher reaches. It spreads across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal over the night period and continuing later on as well whereas lower regions get rainfall.
Punjab,Haryana may receive some showers due to it.
Due to lower instability, convection is not expected and hence no thunderstorm
* Saurashtra also will receive light rains or a/two showers
4th Feb 2013
The system intensifies in the neighbouring nation and the result is that snowfall increases in J&K,HP,Uttaranchal,Nepal etc including Srinagar and tourists places around
* First Avalanche threat will develop for J&K Higher reaches.
* Snowfall will close the Jammu-Srinagar Highway also the already closed Leh-Srinagar highway
Rainfall also spreads southwards in North India. Thunderstorms expected in plains due to the developing instability
*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains
Delhi-NCR, NE Rajasthan,Northern MP,Western UP etc to receive rains.
5th Feb 2013
** Avalanche threat will spread across Himachal,J&K .
** Very heavy snowfall will continue in the regions keeping the roads closed. Minor flight disruptions likely across Srinagar
* Rainfall will continue in North India plains with isolated thunderstorms and hailstorms as well with reduced maximum temperatures due to cloud cover and rains.
*Fog/Visibility problems for North India plains.
6th Feb-7th Feb 2013
Rainfall/Snowfall will decrease in North India. However due to high snow accumulations avalanche threat continues with fog in lower plains including SIACHEN GLACIER,Base Camp etc.
The system will then move away from India.
Thus due to very very heavy snowfall in J&K,Himachal and Uttaranchal the daily life will be hit hardly.
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