Major Western disturbance to impact North India. High snow accumulations likely

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster,

The Western Disturbance of the year may be here! 

****** THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR HIGHER REGIONS OF HIMACHAL PRADESH,J&K and Uttaranchal DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATION. 

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS MUST START PREPARING ACCORDINGLY BY STOCKING FOOD,WATER ETC BEFORE-THE SNOWFALL BEGINS ********

Attached above is the 72hr GFS 500mb ( base 00z,15th Jan). The noteworthy feature is the giant positive Vorticity region having the 500mb geopotential heights as low as 558dam! It's the western disturbance which is all set to impact North India and Nepal in the coming days. 

The lower the geopotential height as compared to other heights on the same longitude,the  more intense any storm is. 

Attached above is the precipitation expected from this system. 

Thus starting from Thursday,17th Jan very heavy snowfall is expected in J&K,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal and Nepal TILL 19th Jan 2013 

Here are some expected highlights- 

* VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN IN HIGHER REACHES OF J&K like Srinagar,Gulmarg,Sonamarg.Pahalgam,Zoji La Pass, Drass,Kargil and Leh and around in the same period 

* THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF AVALANCHE IN HIGH MOUNTAIN AREAS ESPECIALLY SIACHEN Glacier

* JAMMU- SRINAGAR HIGHWAY WILL BE CLOSED IN THIS TENURE. Minor flight disruptions likely at Srinagar on 18th Jan. 

* In Himachal Pradesh also very heavy snowfall will take place and also across Uttaranchal higher reaches,Nepal as well

* Heavy Rains along with an isolated threat of cloudburst across Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal and lower Nepal considering higher vertical vorticities.

* North Indian plains like Punjab,Haryana,Delhi-NCR, few regions in North-Western UP ( Lucknow and around) will receive thunderstorm with rains especially on 17th and 18th Jan. Considering the higher instability, hailstorm also seems likely in Punjab in this period. 

* Min temperature will rise during this period in these areas due to cloud cover

IF READERS TAKE SOME PHOTOS OF THE SNOWFALL OR THUNDERSTORM IN PLAINS, THEN PLEASE SHARE WITH METD WEATHER ON FACEBOOK OR BY MAILING TO metdweather@live.com 

As I am not well, I am unable to provide a detailed forecast.....

Sent from my iPad