Another powerful Western Disturbance all set to impact North India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Another powerful western disturbance is arriving towards North India. The 12z,11th Dec forecast models are indicating that the resulting precipitation (Although snowfall was reported in some stations of Himachal Pradesh today) will initiate from Wednesday,12th Dec 2012 ( a perfect 12-12-12) and will continue till around 15th Dec morning with the peak of the activity on Thursday,13th Dec 2012

Above- The GFS 700mb precipitation for 72hr (13th Dec 2012).

The change which is appearing from this simulation is that the precipitation ( in terms of snow and rain) shall be heavier towards the Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand side as compared to Jammu and Kashmir

Thus the snowfall shall be heavier in Himachal Pradesh than Jammu and Kashmir but it doesnt meant that J&K will not get a heavy snowfall event. Below is the expected scenario

* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR,HIMACHAL PRADESH,UTTARAKHAND FROM 12TH DEC TO 14TH DEC WITH THE PEAK ON 13TH DEC

* DISRUPTIONS OF TRAFFIC POSSIBLE ON THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY,SRINAGAR-LEH HIGHWAY ( ROAD ALREADY CLOSED)

*SRINAGAR CITY MAY FINALLY SEE A SNOWFALL ON 13TH DEC 2012

* GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM TO WITNESS HEAVY SNOWFALL

* SHIMLA,MANALI AND OTHER CITIES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH TO RECEIVE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 

* RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH INDIAN PLAINS ESPECIALLY PUNJAB,HARYANA,UTTARAKHAND,HIMACHAL PRADESH

* DELHI,NCR MAY GET ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. 

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Another Major Western Disturbance all set to impact North India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Not less than a week ago, a historic western disturbance hit North India leading to a complete standstill of transportation,sudden cold and many other worrying factors for the people.
The GFS forecasts are in a state of high agreement about another Western Disturbance in the region from 14th Jan 2012 onwards

This Western Disturbance shall bring Heavy Snowfall in many areas across Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh!

The areas in the vicinity of Srinagar i.e Gulmarg,Sonamarg,Pahalgam shall see another major snowfall which may even stress upto Vaishnodevi and other areas.
The Kargil Valley,Suru Valley,Ladakh,Zoji La shall also get snowfall
Srinagar also will see Snowfall !


In Himachal Pradesh, Heavy Snowfall is expected in the areas like Shimla and vicinity,Lahaul Spiti,Manali and vicinity,Higher Passes

Considering the presence of cooler atmosphere, areas of Punjab like Pathankot where it did snow may even get another snowfall ( light) which will depend on the type of the system and its intensity.

The plains of Punjab,Haryana,J&K,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal will get Rainfall and Isolated Thunderstorm also followed by Fog.

DURATION-


The Western Disturbance shall reach by 14th Jan 2012 where Snowfall is expected ( Light) in Central J&K.
On 15th Jan i.e Sunday the W.D will precipitate Snow and Rain in the areas mentioned above which will relax by 16th Jan 2012 late period


CONSEQUENCES- 


* THE W.D IS ANOTHER MAJOR ONE *


* VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL TOWARDS WEST J&K,HIMACHAL PRADESH WHICH INCLUDES
SRINAGAR AND VICINITY PROMINENTLY


* TOTAL DISRUPTION OF AIR SCHEDULE,ROAD WAYS ON OR AFTER 15TH JAN 2012 I.E SUNDAY ESP THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY


* MIN TEMP SHALL DROP MORE AFTER THE WD*


*** PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THE EVENT ***


*** PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS FROM FOG IN NORTH INDIA PLAINS***