Another powerful Western Disturbance all set to impact North India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Another powerful western disturbance is arriving towards North India. The 12z,11th Dec forecast models are indicating that the resulting precipitation (Although snowfall was reported in some stations of Himachal Pradesh today) will initiate from Wednesday,12th Dec 2012 ( a perfect 12-12-12) and will continue till around 15th Dec morning with the peak of the activity on Thursday,13th Dec 2012

Above- The GFS 700mb precipitation for 72hr (13th Dec 2012).

The change which is appearing from this simulation is that the precipitation ( in terms of snow and rain) shall be heavier towards the Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand side as compared to Jammu and Kashmir

Thus the snowfall shall be heavier in Himachal Pradesh than Jammu and Kashmir but it doesnt meant that J&K will not get a heavy snowfall event. Below is the expected scenario

* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR,HIMACHAL PRADESH,UTTARAKHAND FROM 12TH DEC TO 14TH DEC WITH THE PEAK ON 13TH DEC

* DISRUPTIONS OF TRAFFIC POSSIBLE ON THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY,SRINAGAR-LEH HIGHWAY ( ROAD ALREADY CLOSED)

*SRINAGAR CITY MAY FINALLY SEE A SNOWFALL ON 13TH DEC 2012

* GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM TO WITNESS HEAVY SNOWFALL

* SHIMLA,MANALI AND OTHER CITIES OF HIMACHAL PRADESH TO RECEIVE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 

* RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH INDIAN PLAINS ESPECIALLY PUNJAB,HARYANA,UTTARAKHAND,HIMACHAL PRADESH

* DELHI,NCR MAY GET ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. 

IF ANYONE WANTS TO SUBMIT THE SNOW IMAGES THEN THE IMAGES ( WITH DETAILS LIKE LOCATION,TIME OF IMAGE) MUST BE MAILED TO 

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THE IMAGES WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THE BLOG

Powerful Western Disturbance to impact North India bringing snowfall!

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

After a very prolonged gap, a powerful Western Disturbance will be striking North India from tomorrow onwards i.e 28th Nov 2012

Attached above is the 48hr projected base 00z,27th Nov 700mb vorticity coupled with the precipitation.. One can see that the rainfall amount will be very heavy (snowfall as well) in J&K prominently in Central,Western J&K.

With temperatures already in the freezing level, snowfall will happen on a heavy level basis in J&K and I suspect light to Moderate across Himachal Pradesh starting 28th Nov and continuing on reduced estimates on 29th Nov

Usually such western disturbances bring rains in Northern Plains like Punjab,Haryana,NCR New Delhi however with this setup, its unlikely that these regions will receive heavy rains.

On Thursday (29th Nov), I suspect some cloud cover for the Northern Plains with isolated rainfall chances (less chance though) which may not bring a much change in the weather

*** Srinagar City will also receive THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ON 28TH NOV LATE PERIOD,29TH NOV. THIS SNOWFALL EVEN MAY CLOSE THE LEH-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY AROUND ZOJILA-PASS***

*** Jammu-Srinagar highway may also get traffic disruption*** 

GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM ETC WILL BE DECORATED BY SNOW IN THIS EVENT***

RAINFALL EXPECTED IN OMAN,UAE-

Meanwhile another short wave trough shall arrive from Western regions coming over Saudi Arabia bringing rains around 29th Nov 2012 and then moving across UAE-Oman  brining rains there around 30th Nov 2012,1st Dec 2012

Thus cities like Muscat,Dubai etc will receive rains (along with parts like SE Oman) in this period

Folks from Muscat,Dubai can send the rainfall images to METD WEATHER on facebook
facebook.com/deorasakshay


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

SEVERE SNOWFALL LIKELY to hammer North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- MARK 5 ALERT, PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION(PDS) FOR NORTH INDIA. ( 5TH FEB ONWARDS)

Multiple heavy snowfall events is likely in North India from tomorrow(Feb 03 2011) onwards.

The Western Disturbance which can be seen in the satellite imagery as a gigantic cloud patch at NW of J&K shall precipitate snow in Jammu and Kashmir entire state with rains at lower reaches and

Northern Himachal Pradesh

Below is the estimated snowfall amounts with effects due to it.

I notice two extratropical storms ( WD) embeded in the 300mb jetstream flow

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For Western Disturbance I.

Expected 500 mb height - 564dm

Snowfall from Thu (3rd Feb 2011 ) t0 Sat ( 5th Feb 2011)

Place- 1} Skardu,Gilgit( POK)

RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE TO HEAVY

2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA,)

RATE AND ACCUMULATION - MODERATE SNOWFALL

EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.

3] KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH ( AREAS BETWEEN KARGIL AND LEH AND AROUND LEH)

RATE - MODERATE IN KARGIL VALLEY

LIGHT IN LADAKH

EFFECTS- ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE AREAS BY ALL TRANSPORT MEANS.

4] HIMACHAL PRADESH -( NORTHERN HP ONLY)

RATE- LIGHT

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By the time this Western Disturbance brings snowfall in North India,

As this shortwave trough in the above case precipitates, the western portion of the jet streams shall intensify to jets around 120kt and embeded low pressure ( Second W.d) shall reach North India during 5th Feb

On/After 5th Feb 2011, the eastern extent of this trough shall potentially modify and mature to a shortwave trough which will again bring rains and snowfall in North India

Below is the estimation of it

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For Western Disturbance 2. ( Trailing end of the first shortwave trough)

expected 500mb height - 558dm

Snowfall from 5th Feb (SAT) -----

Snowfall from the previous Western Disturbance shall reduce on 5th but by late hours shall intensify as the next western disturbance stars affecting.

1] Skardu,Gilgit etc....

Rate- VERY HEAVY ( MODERATE TILL AFTERNOON 6TH FEB. VERY HEAVY FROM LATER THAT DAY )

...

2} KASHMIR VALLEY( SRINAGAR, CITY,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PAHALGAM,ZOJI LA) &

KARGIL VALLEY AND LADAKH

RATE AND ACCUMULATION -

ON SAT(5TH) - LIGHT TO MODERATE

** FROM 6TH FEB TO 8TH FEB 2011 - VERY VERY HEAVY.. HIGH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD PARTICULARLY ON 7TH FEB 2011

EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC..

ALERTS-

METD WEATHER ISSUES A MARK 5 ALERT AND PDS FOR THIS AREA STARTING FROM 1500HRS ON SATURDAY (5TH FEB 2011) TILL 1200 HRS ON TUESDAY ( 8TH FEB 2011)

3] HIMACHAL PRADESH ( ALL STATE HIGHER REACHES)

RATE- LIGHT ON 5TH FEB

MODERATE ON 6TH FEB

HEAVY ON LATE PERIOD OF 6TH FEB, ON 7TH FEB

LIGHT ON 8TH FEB 2011

EFFECTS- TOTAL DISRUPTION OF LIFE,TRANSPORT ETC...

ALERTS- MARK 5 ALERT FROM 0800HRS 6TH FEB TILL 0800HRS 9TH FEB 2011

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http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2011020306_ASA_GFS_300_HGT_WINDS

Animation showing the 300mb winds