Predict the 2012 Winter Contest of METD WEATHER

To enable people's participation in Meteorology and particularly in the Weather of India, METD WEATHER announces a "Special Offer". The contest is named as "Predict the 2012 Winter of India". The contest is a very simple contest and definitely doesn't require any technical brains to answer. The participants also are not expected to be profession/passionate meteorologist or others having knowledge of meteorology. This will enable a common man to participate. 

As was announced, the 2012 Winter Forecast of METD WEATHER will be issued on Sunday,14th Oct 2012 at 1000hrs IST ( 0430hrs GMT). 

But what are the participants expected to do???

Simple, just predict what METD WEATHER's forecast will point at. Simple statistics imply that there are only three equally likely events for the 2012 Winter of India

Either- 

1) The Winter will be colder than normal

2) The Winter will be normal 

3) The Winter will be warmer than normal 

So the participant has to select any one of the option and follow the following procedure to submit their entry. 

What will winners get?? 

The person whose estimate matches with METD WEATHER forecast will get a chance to get featured on the METD WEATHER BLOG and also will get a chance to display his weather related story. Winners will be notified accordingly and will be asked to submit their weather story 

What are the steps to be followed?

Here is the proceedure an interested person must follow for getting involved! 

1) The person needs to comment on the 2012 overall winter for India in one line by mentioning whether he/she thinks that the winter will have ANY ONE OF THE BELOW NATURE-
1) NORMAL
2) WARMER THAN NORMAL
3) COLDER THAN NORMAL

STEP 2- 

After the person is firm with his guess, he needs to send a Facebook message

***

to METD WEATHER. 

The Facebook page of METD WEATHER is facebook.com/deorasakshay 

Those who aren't connected on our Facebook page need to just click the "Like" and then proceed. 

This can be done from any device. The person needs to open the Facebook METD WEATHER pageand click 'Message' option. He/She must comment in one line the option he/she feels from the above three and send it to METD WEATHER

STEP 3-
After you send a message to us, we will reply you thus confirming.

THE LAST DATE FOR THE SUBMISSION IS FRIDAY,12TH OCT 2012 1200hrs GMT. So the comments much reach before this

THE WINNERS WILL THEN BE NOTIFIED ACCORDINGLY AND WILL GET A CHANCE TO GET FEATURED ON THE BLOG WITH THEIR WEATHER STORY..

*** The comments must be messaged to METD WEATHER FACEBOOK. Commenting on the posts and thus submitting will not be considered!!!

So what are you waiting for????????

Regards,

Akshay Deoras

Owner,Severe Weather Forecaster

METD WEATHER

India

metdweather@live.com

Announcing the "2012 Winter Forecast for India" on 14th Oct 2012

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

FOLLOW METD WEATHER FACEBOOK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. 

The 2012 Winter forecast for India will be issued on Sunday,14th Oct 2012 at 1000hrs IST ( 0430hrs GMT). The Winter Forecast will be issued on the blog and the facebook page followed by a Scribd edition. 

This year's winter forecast will contain two parts. One will be a technical forecast for weather forecasters and the other will be a public version. A related graphic map also will be published!

Meanwhile, METD WEATHER declared the Monsoon withdrawal from Central India with it continuing across Western Maharashtra,Southern India and NE India. Some interesting weather is happening/going to happen in India. 

The Surface thai maps indicate a region of MSLP of 1004mb. The IR satellite imagery also shows extensive clouding across Eastern parts of Southern India especially across Andhra Pradesh ( over Hyderabad). The 850mb map shows that at the 850mb level,a low pressure will develop offshore Goa and vicinity coast. As this happens, till 4th Oct, heavy rains will occur across Northern AP,Northern Karnataka, Central and Southern Maharashtra. 

The parent 850mb low pressure will continue to remain offshore South Eastern India due to which an upsurge in the moisture level will happen across Central India. With better energetic conditions and moisture arriving, convective activity will trigger in these areas with thunderstorm rainfall expected in Nagpur in the afternoon hours till 4th Oct especially around 1-3 Oct. 

Stay tuned for the updates! 

Severe Thunderstorm rocks Nagpur, interesting weather expected

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

On the late afternoon hours of 2nd Sept 2012, a very powerful thunderstorm passed through the city of Nagpur. The Thunderstorm which arrived from the NNE directions was one of the most intense I have ever intercepted with severe winds especially the wind gusts and blowing rainfall due to the winds. The lightning also was very severe with high frequency as well

In just 30-40mins from the initiation, the rains as measured at the HQ were 33mm whereas the IMD recorded 31mm.

Pre-Warnings regarding the thunderstorm couldn't be given as the Doppler Radar of Nagpur is NOT FUNCTIONAL SINCE NEARLY A MONTH WITH THE WARNING 40KVA EXTERNAL UPS UNSERVICEABLE as the visual based warning approach is restricted to only a short corridor of around 50km where one can't estimate the key factors like the Wind Velocity, Hailcore or the rainfall rate etc.. which only a Doppler Radar can do

This raises this big question that What help is the radar costing in crores giving to the City forecasters?

One can check the radar product here 

I have been asked many times since the thunderstorm what was the reason for it and why such thunderstorm happened despite of having an almost clear morning period.

The above is the 850mb ( Roughly 4000-5000ft) above the ground atmospheric condition as analysed at 12z ( 0530PM IST) on 2nd September 2012. One can see a giant region of anti-clockwise circles or spin. Such anticlockwise spin refers to a region of low pressure for Northern Hemisphere.

Hence one can conclude that there is a broad low pressure region offshore West Bengal-Odisha region as indicated by this cyclonic spin at that atmospheric profile.

The vicinity of such lows acts like a boon for such heavy rainfall events/thunderstorms as they get moisture from such lows from the Bay of Bengal hence forward referred as the Bay Low in this text.

The next ingredient of the Severe Thunderstorm Cookbook is the energy referred as the CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. The parcel of air needs some energy ( A Positive Buoyancy) for lifting. The more the available energy with no factors affecting like Wind Shear, the more will be the condensation of the parcel of air thus forming a cloud type called as CB or Cumulonimbus.

The CAPE in the region ( say 100km NE of Nagpur) was near to 2000J/Kg which is a significant value in terms of the instability is concerned.

So just after 12PM IST, CB clouds started developing NE of Nagpur due to all the favoured conditions out of which we discussed a few above. The CB clouds then approached Nagpur and if we had the RADAR product, I could have confirmed how strong the thunderstorm outflow was.

But why didn't it happen before? The main reason for it is the presence of the mentioned 850mb low pressure region offshore Odisha. It basically had triggered short pulses which later developed into thunderstorms and moved SW. This condition wasnt there in the last week.

Also the above Visible image from DUNDEE showing Nagpur ( Pink dot) just after the squall line thunderstorm passed. Its very clear from the geometry of the thunderstorms that they were linearly organised and a Squall Line Thunderstorm. This must have intensified the Thunderstorm outflow!


The station 42866 which normally records the data for Nagpur did't take any data for that period so I am evaluating the expected wind speed at that moment with the help of some experts. In my opinion, it must have been atleast 70-80km/hr!

Many big trees were uprooted in almost all the parts of the city. I could record a HD video of the event along with this solo picture of the fallen branch of the tree in my area-

Here is the HD video of the Thunderstorm.. Please watch the video in full volume to enjoy the nature's fury-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPSvXvOQ6lQ&list=UUlPxSYxAxMVg5tEUWRbpDIQ&index=1&feature=plcp

OR CLICK HERE

In the latest news, 5 people were reported to have died as the portion of the temple in which they were collapsed on them-

India Weather Update-

The biggest concern at the moment is from a region of a Positive Vorticity at the Mid Tropospheric levels as shown in the above GFS projected ( +72hr) base 12z,2nd Sept 2012 plot. 

The region is at present near North AP offshore. Its nothing but part of the above 850mb anticlockwise spin ( top most image). Thus one can see the region of Positive vorticity approaching Central India once again by Tue-Wed period. 

In that regard, 

Heavy to Very Heavy rains are expected in Northern AP-Southern Chattisgarh 

Even Western,Central AP and Eastern Karnataka will receive heavy rains during the same period i.e Monday and Tuesday 

The rains will then move into Southern,Central Maharashtra including Nagpur on Tuesday onwards continuing on Wednesday as well and gradually spreading into Central and NW Madhya Pradesh. 

Gujarat and Sindh region will get some rains from this system and another already present there around Thu-Friday.

Considering the robust instability present in Central India, Severe Thunderstorms may re-occur and hence you must follow METD WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE for details

"Mysterious Clouding in the Southern Arabian Sea"??

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

FOLLOW METD WEATHER ON FACEBOOK FOR THE LATEST WEATHER RELATED UPDATES. CLICK   HERE  TO JOIN THE PAGE 

I received a few questions today about the "mysterious" clouding in the Southern Arabian Sea. The attached image is of the DUNDEE Satellite Imagery (Meteostat) VISIBLE of  0.45 - 1.00 µm RANGE.

It clearly shows some continuous clouding stretching from Offshore South-Western Coast to South Central Arabian Sea.

The above IMD Cloud top temperature image indicates the cloud tops having a peak temperature as significant as -40C. More negative cloud top temperatures indicate that the convection happening in the system is very significant. 

But what is causing such clouding???

Let us check the 12z,25th August 2012 GFS forecast models for Mid Troposphere ( 500mb). 

The above is the GFS Analysis at 12z,25th Aug 500mb. One can see some red shaded regions EXACTLY AT THE SAME PLACE WHERE CLOUDING IS NOTED IN THE ARABIAN SEA.

Such red shaded regions indicate Positive Vorticity in the Northern Hemisphere. Positive Vorticity basically deals with the anti-clockwise flow or the movement of the air ( in Northern hemisphere) which is often noted at the base of troughs ( region with short geo-potential heights). Thus there is a PVA or Positive Vorticity Advection happening due to which the lifting of the air is boosted which in turn is responsible for such clouding in the Arabian Sea.

This is also confirmed by the 500mb Geopotential Height which is 585dam in that region as compared to the higher values in the same latitude around.

So far, at the surface level, no low pressure region has been reported in that area and hence following the methodology, one can't call this region as a depression!

WEATHER UPDATE_ 

There is another Bay system approaching India from the East. The above satellite images followed by the 500mb analysis and forecast suggests that the system has started its movement into India and the 850mb anti-clockwise circulation at the moment is over Odisha region with the MSLP of 1000mb as per the Thai Maps.

This system is expected to pass through ( the PVA region) Maharashtra-Andhra Pradesh-Chattisgarh border and head NW by 72hrs. The convection seems strong in the Northern periphery of this system and hence considering its path, Southern,Cent Chattisgarh,Eastern Maharashtra including Nagpur will receive rains though accumulation will be more towards Northern AP and Southern Chattisgarh till Tuesday.

Rainfall is now expected to decrease in Northern India considering no approaching system and arriving DRY phase of the MJO.

ENSO update- 

The SST in the Nino 3.4 region has reached +0.6C ( Anomaly) which is a classic indicator of the El Nino conditions but only from the point of view of SST anomaly. The atmospheric circulation in the region remains neutral or average and is slightly turning towards the Positive phase ( El Nino).

It can be expected that the ONI values for the period of JJA to be at the El Nino threshold and by Mid September to September end, the phenomena establishes in the Pacific Ocean.

I shall update later on that

First week of July to bring rains in Central India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Finally a little good news seems to be coming in! First we shall see the last week rainfall of June 2012

Top most is the weekly rainfall ( 21st June to 27th June 2012) and the above one is the Monsoon season rainfall from 1st June to 27th June ( data updated till 29th June).

Considering the seasonal rainfall, it can be noted that only NE India ( Sikkim) i.e Assam and Meghalaya has got excess rainfall while the majority areas are in the DEFICIENT and SCANTY ZONE. The rainfall has been normal in the Western Maharashtra,Western Karnataka and some Eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh,Odisha,Chattisgarh,Lakshadweep and A&N Islands and some parts of the NE India.

The weak monsoon current and slow onset has resulted in such a large deficiency leading to multiple problems like bad sowing of the Kharif Crops,Water storage deficiency etc.

Above- The EWP map of the Madden Julian Oscillation shows the arriving wet phase ( green shade) over India. This phase is a very weak in terms of the strength but will not be so bad and hence the rainfall is expected to increase this period. 

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is still towards negative neutral which will be fueling the dry phase more than the wet phase as per the IndiMo 1- so again it can be expected that the rainfall will be non normal and a bit scanty from July end period. 

Favored by the MJO Wet phase and a couple of low pressures from the Bay of Bengal soon rainfall is expected in a wide area of Central India 

On 1st July, 

Areas like Washim,Akola and vicinity will be receiving some rainfall. The rainfall is expected to be convective or thunder rains in nature. Some more parts of Central,Eastern Maharashtra also will receive rains. 

2nd July-

The rainfall is expected in the entire Maharashtra state including Nagpur,some parts of Madhya Pradesh ,Chattisgarh as well. This rainfall can be expected to be little good in terms of the sowing of the Kharif Crops in these areas ( if sowing has not been done) 

3rd July- 

The rainfall is again expected in the above areas and will be considerably good helping the seeds. The rainfall is expected in a region from Central MP,Chattisgarh,Maharashtra prominently 

4th July-

The rainfall is expected to decrease a bit in Maharashtra but will be the same almost in Chattisgarh. Isolated rainfall can be expected in many parts of Maharashtra due to the low effect. 

5th July-

Rainfall expected in Central,Northern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and areas around Chattsgarh 

SYNOPSIS-

* GOOD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND/IN NAGPUR,VIDARBHA AND SURROUNDING DISTRICTS IN MAHARASHTRA,MADHYA PRADESH FROM JULY 2 ONWARDS

* THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ( BETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS) FOR THE SOWING OF KHARIF CROPS IN MAHARASHTRA ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INDIA

* SUCH AN EVENT OF BETTER RAINFALL MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TILL SOME DAYS IN JULY

* FARMERS WAITING FOR THE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL INDIA SHALL THINK OF SOWING ON 2ND JUNE OR 3RD JUNE 

WILL JULY 2012 RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CITIZENS OF INDIA??

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

WILL THE MONSOON RAINFALL REACH IN TIME TO AVOID THE WATER DEFICIENCY???


* AROUND 53.5% OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL TILL NOW IN MAHARASHTRA THIS MONTH


* SIXTEEN DISTRICTS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 50% RAINFALL IN MAHARASHTRA


* 10% WATER CUT IN MUMBAI FROM JULY 1 2012


* WATER STORAGE IN THE 366 IRRIGATION PROJECTS OF NAGPUR IS 13% ONLY (AS CONSIDERED ON 26TH JUNE 2012)


* WATER SUPPLY TO PUNE CITY LIKELY TO BE IN A GOOD SHAPE TILL 15TH JULY 2012 ONLY. 


* AGRICULTURE GETTING AFFECTED DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL




Be it agriculture or water level situation, the SW Monsoon is continuing to horrify the citizens of many areas like interior southern India, Central India and the worst for Northern India as well including places like Gujarat etc.

The question arises that will the rainfall be sufficient atleast in the first 15 days of July 2012?

Lets discuss the expected conditions!

The Indian Ocean Dipole which is directly affecting the Indian Monsoon has reached in a very low state ( Negative neutral stage). The DMI ( Dipole Mode Index) in the week 18th June-24th June was -0.09. The DMI has been falling towards neutral and negative since the monsoon commenced in India.

        PERIOD                 DMI

20120528,20120603, 0.78
20120604,20120610, 0.17
20120611,20120617, 0.05
20120618,20120624, -0.09

The above DMI plot clearly shows how good the IOD was till 03rd June 2012 with a value of 0.78. 

A more negative DMI will mean more cooler water in the Western Arabian Sea which means a less favorable conditions for the convection and subsequent the monsoon current ( Somali Current). For a very good monsoon phase ( intensity and progress), the IOD has to be positive. 

The forecasts are indicating that the IOD will have a neutral tendency in July 2012 with the POAMA Model determining a 66.7% of likelyhood. 

Such a neutral IOD is also unfavorable for the monsoon rainfall ( ALL MONSOON RAINFALL MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE OF THE ARABIAN SEA BRANCH). The IOD swings between the negative neutral to positive neutral many times in this phase. 

This also affects the Madden Julian Oscillation as a neutral condition will result in a very less interference of the Wet phase of the MJO and also the frequency leading to less rain conditions. 

If the POAMA model is to be believed then the rainfall scenario in India ( Excluding NE India) for July 2012 ( Atleast till Mid July) will likely continue to be the same or slightly improved .In short, this trend of IOD will not assist in much rainfall and hence July 2012 ( Atleast till Mid) may also continue to see a more or less June 2012 situation with slight improvement. The net rainfall is also expected to BE LESS THAN AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NATION BUT IMPROVED THAN JUNE 2012

The IOD also has some interim positive values like the one in early June 2012 but the value will be less leading to less than normal rainfall in July as well. 

The POAMA models indicate that the IOD will be at the Positive stage in Aug and Sept 2012. This can bring late monsoon month's rainfall. 

CENTRAL INDIA RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR AGRICULTURE:

The anticipated low pressure at lower levels in the Bay of Bengal doesn't seem to be in a good shape now. The forecast models also have downgraded the likelyhood of generation of a significant low pressure region. Though a weak low pressure or the so called upper air circulation is still expected to pass through Central India. 

However, the rainfall which has earlier expected to be very heavy and highly favorable for the sowing of the Kharif Crop in the region seems to be reduced. The forecast models do indicate that there will be increased in the moisture levels from around 30th June across the region with good rainfall chance during the period and expected to be a bit significant around 2nd July. As of today, it seems that a marginal sowing can be possible around 1st July or so but the risk factor hasn't vanished. The effect shall go away after 4th July or around with aperiodic rainfall again which can make the survival of the seeds difficult. 

Thus, its a challenging situation as the July 2012 rainfall ( atleast till Mid July) doesn't look impressive for the early July 2012 sowing. If one decides to wait till July end then it will be too late!

NORTH INDIA MONSOON ONSET

North India continues to wait for the monsoon. It appears that the first few rainfall can happen around 7-10th July 2012 in the region. Till that period, the weather will be dry itself. 

WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

WILL THE UPCOMING RAINFALL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AGRICULTURE IN CENTRAL INDIA?

GFS models have been consistent in suggesting that there is a good chance of heavy rainfall which is required for Agriculture in Central India very soon. If the GFS is to be believed, a low pressure region is expected to form at the lower atmosphere stretching upto 500mb atleast. 

The above 72hr (00z,26th June Int) shows the classic 850mb cyclonic circulation across Eastern Bay of Bengal. Such anticlockwise circulations often indicate the low pressure area in this region as the air is rising significantly and the coriolis force causes such anticlockwise motion of the air. 

Further up at the 500mb level, a positive vortex system is appearing around the region. Such a vortex system is an indication of such lows and assists convection as well. 

If the forecast models are to be believed, this system will be tracking exactly westwards i.e entering Eastern India by 30th June 2012 and reaching over Central India around 1-2nd July 2012. 

As a result, the precipitation models are indicating some rainfall in this region which is expected to be heavy and more in terms of accumulation which may be helpful for agriculture. 

The above 144hr ( 1st July plot) showing good amounts of rainfall in Central India i.e Eastern,Central Maharashtra,Southern Madhya Pradesh,Chattisgarh and SE of Chattisgarh. The rainfall also seems to be heavy at NE Karnataka,NW Andhra Pradesh as well. 

Above- Nagpur meteogram forecast showing a very good moisture and rainfall. One can also see the drop in the air pressure, (4th coloumn from the top) indicating the likely hood of the low

The big question is that whether this rainfall will materialize and be sufficient for agriculture activity like sowing of the Kharif Crop

The sowing has been 50% in Maharashtra till now and it has been less across Vidarbha and surroundings. 

So if this low materializes, it seems to be favorable for the sowing of Kharif Crops in the mentioned areas. 

WHICH KHARIF CROP TO SOW?

TUR,MUNG or SOYABEAN???

The question is very important as choosing the right crop now will lead to a better farming this year. 

Sowing till 30th June is definitely an act of stupidity as it will not be fruitful. Some areas do receive evening thunderstorm showers which aren't much for the agriculture and are very much deceptive. A farmer generally thinks that the monsoon has arrived but it hasn't and from the next day, the weather opens up. 

As per Rajeshbhai Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather,-

Rajeshbhai  who is one of the best weather forecasters of India having an agricultural background informed METD WEATHER. He said that Tur is not advisable now because it takes a lot of time ( around 5 month crop). Tur requires heavy rains after regular periods of 5 days or so. If the rainfall picks up in July, one can't assure the rains in Oct period! So its not worth to sow tur now! 

On the other hand. Mung and Soyabean are much better. Soyabean requires heavy rainfall during sowing and then a rainfall of around 15mm or near is required atleast once in 5 days. Its a short period crop ( around 2-3 months). Mung also needs similar lesser rainfall atleast once in 4 days or so. Its also a short time crop and after the conditions come together for the sowing, you can go for Mung and Soyabean. Going for tur is definitely not advisable.