(C) 2012 AKSHAY DEORAS
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FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE TECHNICAL VERSION OF THE WINTER FORECAST
From the Desk,
14th Oct 2012
0400hrs IST
Nagpur,India
Dear Readers,
The Official forecast for the 2012 Winter in India is below.
This year's forecast is an experimental forecast as we have used a new technique for weather forecasting. Till the last year, the winter forecast used to be made using the weather models directly. However there are many errors in it which ultimately spoil the forecast accuracy. This year's winter forecast consists of two parts. One is a technical part having all the scientific background for the forecast whereas the other one is the non technical or the public version for lucid understanding of the people.
As per the forecast, it appears that Northern half of the country will experience cooler than normal winter whereas southern half will experience warmer than normal conditions. As a result, the net forecast for 2012 Winter in India seems "NORMAL WINTER''
We also expect to cross the 2,00,000 pageviews after the Winter forecasts are published.
Thanks for the support !
For any feedback/suggestion, you can mail me at metdweather@live.com
Greetings!
Akshay Deoras
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*It appears that more or less a ENSO Neutral will persists through the Northern Hemisphere winter with a slight El Nino conditions emerging towards the year end.
*** NET AVERAGE IS CONSIDERED, INDIA WILL HAVE A NORMAL WINTER FOR THE SEASON***
Zone Wise-
North India-
1] Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal
Normal winter conditions will be observed here.The temperature anomaly ( All season Average) shall be around 0.2C to 0.1c less than average temperature.
2] Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh,New Delhi
The overall temperature anomaly in these regions depends on the western disturbance. However it does appear that these regions will witness ( 0.5C to 0.7C) less than average temperature.
After the snowfall events, temperature in the plains will drop suddenly but average will be near to the predicted value.
** We shall not estimate the number of western disturbances as its a debatable topic. However, the precipitation in the hilly areas seems NORMAL
3] Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh,Gujarat
A Cooling effect is likely in these areas as the jet streams coupled with the negative AOI influence shall lead to drop of temperatures due to more cool air incursion.
** Uttar Pradesh will have NORMAL winter and hence I don't expect any anomaly in the temperature.
The Average temperatures will be ( ~0.5C) less than average normal temperature. Areas like Rajasthan-Gujarat border can experience lesser than avg temp by a factor of around ( 0.8C to 1C)
4] Northern Chattisgarh,Bihar and Jharkhand,West Bengal
Regions will witness a slightly cooler than normal winter conditions with average variation of about 0.3-0.5C ( lesser than the normal)
5] Sikkim,NE India
Though this shall not support the Deoras limit but it appears that the regions will witness warmer conditions with temperatures around ( 0.3 to 0.5C) more than normal
6) Central,Northern,Eastern Maharashtra,
These areas will be witnessing normal winter conditions but the tendency shall be a slightly warmer than normal by a factor of around 0.3C.
The expected record min temperature of Nagpur for the season shall be in the range of 7.5C ( +/- 0.5C)
7) Southern Maharashtra and remainder Southern India
Warmer than normal conditions with temperature variation of a factor of around ( 0.5C to 1C) more than Normal for Southern India
* No forecast available for Lakshadweep, Andamaan Nicobar Is.*
(C) 2012 AKSHAY DEORAS
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE TECHNICAL VERSION OF THE WINTER FORECAST
From the Desk,
14th Oct 2012
0400hrs IST
Nagpur,India
Dear Readers,
The Official forecast for the 2012 Winter in India is below.
This year's forecast is an experimental forecast as we have used a new technique for weather forecasting. Till the last year, the winter forecast used to be made using the weather models directly. However there are many errors in it which ultimately spoil the forecast accuracy. This year's winter forecast consists of two parts. One is a technical part having all the scientific background for the forecast whereas the other one is the non technical or the public version for lucid understanding of the people.
As per the forecast, it appears that Northern half of the country will experience cooler than normal winter whereas southern half will experience warmer than normal conditions. As a result, the net forecast for 2012 Winter in India seems "NORMAL WINTER''
We also expect to cross the 2,00,000 pageviews after the Winter forecasts are published.
Thanks for the support !
For any feedback/suggestion, you can mail me at metdweather@live.com
Greetings!
Akshay Deoras
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*It appears that more or less a ENSO Neutral will persists through the Northern Hemisphere winter with a slight El Nino conditions emerging towards the year end.
*** NET AVERAGE IS CONSIDERED, INDIA WILL HAVE A NORMAL WINTER FOR THE SEASON***
*** NET AVERAGE IS CONSIDERED, INDIA WILL HAVE A NORMAL WINTER FOR THE SEASON***
Zone Wise-
North India-
1] Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal
Normal winter conditions will be observed here.The temperature anomaly ( All season Average) shall be around 0.2C to 0.1c less than average temperature.
2] Punjab,Haryana,Chandigarh,New Delhi
The overall temperature anomaly in these regions depends on the western disturbance. However it does appear that these regions will witness ( 0.5C to 0.7C) less than average temperature.
After the snowfall events, temperature in the plains will drop suddenly but average will be near to the predicted value.
** We shall not estimate the number of western disturbances as its a debatable topic. However, the precipitation in the hilly areas seems NORMAL
** We shall not estimate the number of western disturbances as its a debatable topic. However, the precipitation in the hilly areas seems NORMAL
3] Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Uttar Pradesh,Gujarat
A Cooling effect is likely in these areas as the jet streams coupled with the negative AOI influence shall lead to drop of temperatures due to more cool air incursion.
** Uttar Pradesh will have NORMAL winter and hence I don't expect any anomaly in the temperature.
** Uttar Pradesh will have NORMAL winter and hence I don't expect any anomaly in the temperature.
The Average temperatures will be ( ~0.5C) less than average normal temperature. Areas like Rajasthan-Gujarat border can experience lesser than avg temp by a factor of around ( 0.8C to 1C)
4] Northern Chattisgarh,Bihar and Jharkhand,West Bengal
Regions will witness a slightly cooler than normal winter conditions with average variation of about 0.3-0.5C ( lesser than the normal)
5] Sikkim,NE India
Though this shall not support the Deoras limit but it appears that the regions will witness warmer conditions with temperatures around ( 0.3 to 0.5C) more than normal
4] Northern Chattisgarh,Bihar and Jharkhand,West Bengal
Regions will witness a slightly cooler than normal winter conditions with average variation of about 0.3-0.5C ( lesser than the normal)
5] Sikkim,NE India
Though this shall not support the Deoras limit but it appears that the regions will witness warmer conditions with temperatures around ( 0.3 to 0.5C) more than normal
6) Central,Northern,Eastern Maharashtra,
These areas will be witnessing normal winter conditions but the tendency shall be a slightly warmer than normal by a factor of around 0.3C.
The expected record min temperature of Nagpur for the season shall be in the range of 7.5C ( +/- 0.5C)
7) Southern Maharashtra and remainder Southern India
Warmer than normal conditions with temperature variation of a factor of around ( 0.5C to 1C) more than Normal for Southern India
* No forecast available for Lakshadweep, Andamaan Nicobar Is.*
