Thursday, August 12, 2010

SLIGHT RISK in upper USA on Friday

Akshay Deoras
Severe Space and Earth weather Forecaster,

Severe Thunderstorms are expected to develop to the east of the persistent 70kt upper level jets. With a nice warm,moist sector extending in most of Iowa,WI,MN, Severe thunderstorms will develop in the strong CAPE and in the presence of the Low pressure in the north and good LLJ pulling moisture reaching dewpoints near to 75F!
Convection will be inhibited till Friday afternoon due to a strong CAP which will break just in the afternoon when the warm front sweeps across IOWA and tripple point arrives in Minnesota.
A nice low level shear is also present in the cold front and near the tripple point.
Organized storms are possible with some isolated thunderstorms also converting to supercells
The risk for DAMAGING hAILS and winds is more than tornado.However given the nice kinematics, tornadoes are possible in the Slight risk area

The setup looks like a bimodal system. One affecting IOWA then surging towards OHIO and the other developing in the tripple point area around the WI and MN border and surging towards canada
I will go with the IOWA system and place my tornado target near SE IA.

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