METD WEATHER,
Akshay Deoras,
Severe Weather Forecaster
A Tropical depression is very near to happen in the Northern Bay of Bengal in the next few days as being suggested by forecast models. I expect this models to stay consistent!
The Forecast models of GFS are getting better and better and more suggestive for the formation of significant tropical depression. The 00z GFS indicate the central pressure to be less than 992mb and I see a very good low level circulation within the surface low pressure with UAC also existing.
As mentioned earlier, there is a strong vorticity at mid levels with a 579dm 500mb height..
The precipitation models have surely become better and suggesting the organizing of rainbands more around the low but I am STILL NOT happy with the structure that is ideal for a Tropical Cyclone
In all, I w'd expect a Tropical Storm out of it as the air pressure certainly seems low. I will definately stick on it and keep updating
THIS TROPICAL STORM'S EXPECTED PATH LOOKS TO BE JUST MISSING KOLKATA AND TURNING WESTWARDS AND CENTERING OVER CENTRAL INDIA BY THIS SATURDAY,7TH AUGUST 2010
IF TRACK HAPPENS, CENTRAL INDIA WILL BE FLOODED IN THIS WEEKEND AS THAT WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR JUST THE END STAGE OF IT..
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