Cyclone Phailin undergoes rapid intensification, now a Category 3 cyclone!

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHAILIN POSSES AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ODISHA AND BORDERING ANDHRA PRADESH COAST


Surpassing all the anticipations, Tropical Cyclone Phailin has undergone (and continues to undergo) a rapid intensification due to which in a very short time it has intensified to a powerful Category 3 Cyclone with maximum winds of around 100Kt (around 185km/hr) gusting to around 125Kt and cloud top temperature over -70C with a clearer eyewall!!!!

The above image of Cyclone Phailin from NRL clearly shows a stable eye and possibly the associated eyewall close to 16N,90E as Phailin continues to move NW towards the Odisha coast.

The major reason of this rapid intensification of Cyclone Phailin is the absence of the conditions (on high magnitude) (like dry air, cooler sea surface temperature,high vertical wind shear etc). Such conditions often interfere with the strength of a cyclone leading to its weakening. With Tropical Cyclone Phailin, the conditions have been supporting for it to intensify since the beginning.

Upper Air conditions continue to indicate that Tropical Cyclone Phailin is getting a very favourable southern outflow ranging over 30 Kt assisting the convection process whereas its being "gripped/tightened" due to the extremely favourable convergence ~30Kt at its base to the south of non CDO (Central Dense Overcast) eye. Wind shears to continue to be relaxed just 5-10Kt near the LLCC (Low level circulation centre) and continue to be moderate to the SW (seen from the broken fragments) although it is not affecting the cyclone's strength. The CIMSS wind shear tendency continues to show that Phalin will continue to enjoy a light sheared environment enroute to Odisha coast thereby nailing down its chance to weaken significantly.

The above multi sensitivity image from NRL (refer bottom two) clearly show the symmetrical rainbands (pointed by yellow arrows) around the eye and the stable eyewall circulating the eye. Hence one can't expect an eyewall replacement cycle soon in Phailin. The temperature of the eye of Phailin has risen to 0C also (Courtesy-Rajesh Kapadia/Vagaries of Weather) which is a usual feature with such high intensity cyclones which happens when the air in the eye gets adiabatically compressed (during its sinking stage) leading to a rise in the temperature. The MSLP in eye area is anticipated to be around 950mb!

As Phailin continues to churn in a warm (29C) SST of Bay of Bengal, not even the dry air (encircled in red in the above image) offshore West Bengal will affect its intensity as the inflow isn't from northern direction.

Considering all the parameters, Tropical Cyclone Phailin is now expected to intensify (JTWC estimate) to a Category 4 Cyclone shortly before it hits Odisha coast : Near Brahmapur on Saturday (12th Oct 2013) afternoon period (Although landfall like conditions will emerge from the evening/night of Friday,11th Oct ONLY) 

It looks like max sustained wind of this cyclone at the landfall on Saturday will be around 110kt (around 200km/hr) which will be categorised as a high end Category 3 Cyclone (Although on Friday,11th Oct its likely to intensify to Category 4). As it approaches Odisha (although landfall like conditions will happen in Odisha bordering Andhra Pradesh coast like Srikakulam), the outer convection bands will encounter with the land and so there should be a decreasing intensity (A degradation from Category 4 to Category 3) but be it Category 3 or 4, Tropical Cyclone Phailin posses a MAJOR threat for Odisha which includes widespread damage to life,property

Jharkhand,Western West Bengal also posses heavy rainfall threat due to it along with Odisha on Saturday,Sunday chiefly. 

* The big city coming in this threat will be Bhubaneshwar in Odisha where high velocity winds (gusting possibly upto 200km/hr ) with heavy rains will be witnessed during the landfall.

SAFETY TIPS- (Via Ready.gov)

Before a Cyclone (Hurricane)

To prepare for a hurricane, you should take the following measures:

• To begin preparing, you should build an emergency kit and make a family communications plan.
• Know your surroundings.
• Learn the elevation level of your property and whether the land is flood-prone. This will help you know how your property will be affected when storm surge or tidal flooding are forecasted.
• Identify levees and dams in your area and determine whether they pose a hazard to you.
• Learn community hurricane evacuation routes and how to find higher ground. Determine where you would go and how you would get there if you needed to evacuate.
• Make plans to secure your property:
• Cover all of your home’s windows. Permanent storm shutters offer the best protection for windows. A second option is to board up windows with 5/8” marine plywood, cut to fit and ready to install. Tape does not prevent windows from breaking.
• Install straps or additional clips to securely fasten your roof to the frame structure. This will reduce roof damage.
• Be sure trees and shrubs around your home are well trimmed so they are more wind resistant.
• Clear loose and clogged rain gutters and downspouts.
• Reinforce your garage doors; if wind enters a garage it can cause dangerous and expensive structural damage.
• Plan to bring in all outdoor furniture, decorations, garbage cans and anything else that is not tied down.
• Determine how and where to secure your boat.
• Install a generator for emergencies.
• If in a high-rise building, be prepared to take shelter on or below the 10th floor.
• Consider building a safe room.

During a cyclone (hurricane)

If a hurricane is likely in your area, you should:

• Listen to the radio or TV for information.
• Secure your home, close storm shutters and secure outdoor objects or bring them indoors.
• Turn off utilities if instructed to do so. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed.
• Turn off propane tanks
• Avoid using the phone, except for serious emergencies.
• Moor your boat if time permits.
• Ensure a supply of water for sanitary purpose such as cleaning and flushing toilets. Fill the bathtub and other larger containers with water.
• Find out how to keep food safe during and after and emergency.

You should evacuate under the following conditions:

If you are directed by local authorities to do so. Be sure to follow their instructions.

• If you live in a mobile home or temporary structure – such shelter are particularly hazardous during hurricane no matter how well fastened to the ground.
• If you live in a high-rise building – hurricane winds are stronger at higher elevations.
• If you live on the coast, on a floodplain, near a river, or on an island waterway.

 If you are unable to evacuate, go to your wind-safe room. If you do not have one, follow these guidelines:

• Stay indoors during the hurricane and away from windows and glass doors.
• Close all interior doors – secure and brace external doors.
• Keep curtains and blinds closed. Do not be fooled if there is a lull; it could be the eye of the storm – winds will pick up again.
• Take refuge in a small interior room, closet or hallway on the lowest level.
• Lie on the floor under a table or another sturdy object.
• Avoid elevators.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR EAST INDIA- ODISHA UNDER THE THREAT

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

JOIN METD WEATHER FACEBOOK FOR LATEST DETAILS- facebook.com/deorasakshay

The second part of 2013 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season has started with a bang with a new Tropical Storm (we call it 02B as per JTWC) already born in the Bay of Bengal. This new Tropical Storm 02B in North Andaman Sea near 13N,93.5E approximately 1200km east-south east of Visakhapatnam already has wind of 35KT (and hence already lies in the Tropical Storm Category of the Saffir Simpson Scale) 

Seen above is the latest IR-NHC imagery of the Tropical Storm 02B via CIMSS showing the system as Invest (I). Distinct banding features are visible west of the low pressure as the LLCC (Low Level Circulation Centre) is trying to organise in the warm Bay of Bengal having SST of ~29C. LLCC is also becoming more exposed and consolidating also. At the surface level too, the system continues to enjoy lower southern convergence of ~30kt and the convection continues to boost up given the excellent upper air divergence to the south of the system as the system is tracking along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge although its experiencing moderately sheared environment to its south-west.

Already heavy rains have been reported in Andaman and Nicobar Is. Entire Andaman and Nicobar Is will continue to get heavy rains today with high velocity winds as the Tropical Storm intensifies close to the area. After the Tropical Storm moves NW tomorrow (10th Oct) onwards, there will be a decline in the rainfall in this area. 

The Tropical Storm 02B shall be curving to NW as it steers in a moisture rich,higher sea temperature of Bay of Bengal considering the available TPW (Total Precipitable Water). Atmospheric conditions also are expected to be conducive for this Tropical Storm to intensify to Category 1 (say with peak winds of around 80KT) around tomorrow,10th Oct afternoon or so and amidst produce "Rough Sea" in the Bay of Bengal in the highlighted region of METD WEATHER alert. Models are converging for landfall of this system along the Odisha coast on Saturday,12th Oct 2013 (Although landfall like conditions shall start from afternoon-evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013). 

The approximate landfall of this system seems to be around Brahmapur in Odisha however landfall like conditions (which includes heavy rains, gusty winds prominently) will be widely experienced along the entire Odisha coast even stretching upto North East coast of Andhra Pradesh which is bordering Odisha around Friday-Saturday. 

In the forecast map, METD WEATHER has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for East India Coast that prominently includes Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and heavy rainfall extension in Jharkhand also (May stretch upto Bihar on 13/14th Oct 2013). 

IMPACTS- 

*Damage to boats,ships in the "Rough Sea" or in the ports of Odisha (Rough Sea starts now and shall continue till 14th Oct 2013. Fisherman are also advised now to enter the Bay of Bengal till 13/14th Oct 2013. 

* Considering the fact that as of now the Tropical Storm will intensify to Category 1, widespread damage is likely along Odisha coast initially and later on moving into interior (particularly near the landfall area). Damage shall start from afternoon/evening of Friday,11th Oct 2013.

* Extensive damage to huts,trees and weak settlements is likely during the landfall and there exists a high flood threat for Odisha coast and interior as the weakened system (Tropical Depression will bring heavy rains).

* Disruptions of rail,air,road traffic is possible around the capital Bhubaneshwar. 

PRECAUTIONS (Via BOM: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) 

When a cyclone watch is issued (Extended for North East AP and areas in orange colour in the alert map) 

• Re-check your property for any loose material and tie down (or fill with water) all large, relatively light items such as boats and rubbish bins.
• Fill vehicles' fuel tanks. Check your emergency kit and fill water containers.
• Ensure household members know which is the strongest part of the house and what to do in the event of a cyclone warning or an evacuation.
• Tune to your local radio/TV for further information and warnings.
• Check that neighbours are aware of the situation and are preparing.

When a cyclone warning is issued (Odisha coast) 

Depending on official advice provided by your local authorities as the event evolves; the following actions may be warranted.

• If requested by local authorities, collect children from school or childcare centre and go home.
• Park vehicles under solid shelter (hand brake on and in gear).
• Put wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in your pool or inside with other loose items.
• Close shutters or board-up or heavily tape all windows. Draw curtains and lock doors.
• Pack an evacuation kit of warm clothes, essential medications, baby formula, nappies,
  valuables, important papers, photos and mementos in waterproof bags to be taken with
  your emergency kit. Large/heavy valuables could be protected in a strong cupboard.
• Remain indoors (with your pets). Stay tuned to your local radio/TV for further information.
• DON'T TRAVEL TO COASTAL AREAS TO SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

Dry phase of the monsoon to begin very soon

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

SW Monsoon has been very active in some parts of the nation in recent but the conditions are going to change very soon.

The above image from CPC shows the propagation of the MJO ( Madden Julian Oscillation). As can be seen, a region having orange, red-orange color will be approaching over India from 20th June 2013. This is a textbook dry-phase of the MJO where the precipitation will be suppressed in India ( which at the moment is enhanced). As a result of this, the rainfall amount in India from 19-20th June will go down considerable. Break-monsoon conditions are very likely due to the same effect. 

It looks like another enhanced convection/rainfall phase will arrive over India from Mid July 2013. 

*** Heavy rains are likely in a wide area in North India stretching from Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Western Nepal, Western Uttar Pradesh,Central Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and around and Southern, South-Eastern, Eastern Gujarat and around till 19th June 2013 

Light rains are also expected in Delhi-NCR in the tenure. 

Rainfall will be relaxing in Central India from tomorrow/day after tomorrow onwards. 

Monsoon arrives in Bangalore, heads slowly towards Goa

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

Based on METD WEATHER's norms ( See here for details- http://www.facebook.com/notes/metd-weather/norms-for-the-onset-of-sw-monsoon-metd-weather/216135871743180)

SW Monsoon arrived in Karnataka yesterday i.e 4th June 2013 covering a northern limit of Mangalore-Bangalore.

However, there hasn't been any significant rainfall in Tamil Nadu particularly Chennai ( excluding the thunderstorm related rainfall on 2nd June 2013) and hence the primary criterion of rainfall as per the norms is missing due to which METD WEATHER isn't considering the SW Monsoon onset in Tamil Nadu. However more analysis will be done on it today,5th June 2013.

However, IMD advanced the SW Monsoon as north as Southern Maharsahtra, North Central Andhra Pradesh.. Their onset norms are very unclear and hence its being suspected that they violated the norms which includes rainfall, wind direction as not so major rainfall was reported in the regions since June 1st 2013 nor there is an appreciable wind structure blowing from West/South West direction in all the layers of atmosphere till 600mb. Infact, the wind at lower atmospheric profiles ( like 700mb etc) is blowing from the East/South East instead of West/South West in the further lower profile like 850,925mb etc.

Here is a GFS meteogram of Panaji for the next few days

One can note that the 2m RH plot showing the surface relative humidity is still dropping to a minimum of around 50% whereas as per METD WEATHER's norms, it should be atleast/above 60% for 48hrs. Hence METD WEATHER doesn't agree with IMD's advancement

However, it can be seen from 9th June 2013 that the conditions are changing. Its very clear that all the factors are coming together including the wind direction,speed,rainfall amounts,RH etc.

As a result of which, SW Monsoon will advance into Goa during 11-12th June 2013. Before that, it will reach south of Goa i.e north of Karnataka ON TIME AS PER METD WEATHER's forecast of 8-10 June

SW Monsoon will also arrive in Chennai and subsequent Tamil Nadu around 11th June as the conditions come together

The next destination will be Pune ( As I don't see major rainfall for Hyderabad and Andhra Pradesh as the bay branch is inactive at the moment just like Chennai is not getting rains).

Parameters like wind,pressure, rains will start stabilising around 12/13 June 2013 and hence SW Monsoon will be reaching Pune on 15/16th June 2013. See the meteogram here ( http://monsoondata.org/wx/punegfs.png)

Next will be Mumbai! SW Monsoon will reach Mumbai in a day or so after reaching Pune. Hence the onset will likely be around 17/18th June 2013.

SW Monsoon will be arriving in Nagpur on 19/20th June as per the present situation.

Worrying factor -

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) had a wet phase till now due to which there was enhanced rainfall in west coast of India. Heavy pre-monsoon/ system influenced rainfall will likelyinitiate in these areas after around 10th June 2013 and then the dry phase of MJO will take over. Due to this dry phase, its very likely that the monsoon's speed will be a bit slow and also will be the rainfall amounts. Hence the monsoon will taking so much time to reach the areas . 

The Arabian Sea low pressure will fizz away vey soon. It already did what one had feared off i.e pulling moist ladend winds and clouds. However IMD went forward and declared the monsoon to everyone's surprise in Southern Maharashtra! 

Central India will be getting the first heavy pre monsoon showers around 7-9th June 2013. 

Monsoon LIKELY TO BE STALLED after entering Kerala

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

METD WEATHER's Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO) is already out! Check the monsoon forecast for your region here  (PUBLIC VERSION)

The monsoon has already arrived in Andaman and Nicobar Is and may be at the doorstep of India but the wait should be more as was expected and mentioned in the forecast.

As per the latest guidance from 00z, 28th May 2013 GFS, a low pressure system is mingling offshore Yemen-Oman as can be seen from this IMD IR imagery

One can clearly see the system just touching Yemen-Oman in the Arabian Sea region which is still having intense convection as being suggested by the two dense reflectivity (compact white regions)... If one believes the track of this system, the system will have a very strange and mingling motion in the Arabian Sea as it will move now south then again intensify head ENE then again WNW as a low pressure system prominently.. Convergence is doubtful with it as the GFS precipitation forecast does show many rain bands around the system and hence not consolidating as a Tropical Depression/Cyclone in the coming days. 

The forecast says that the system will move towards Oman ( Muscat ) as an insignificant system around 3/4th June 2013 and will likely bring rains there. We will update that on our facebook page as it comes in the Short range forecast panel. Some light clouds will continue in Muscat occasionally due to the system apart from rainfall in the shore of Oman-Yemen ( facing Arabian Sea)

However, this system will cause a big problem as feared! Lets have a look at the 850mb map showing the moisture. 

The top-most image is of the the present conditions ( 00z,28th May 2013) where this system can be noticed as anti-clockwise circulation region offshore Yemen-Oman. We can clearly see that the moisture at that level is being spread over Arabian Sea into West of India ( As the Somali Current has intensified allowing this to happen). However when one looks at the bottom image of the forecasted conditions on 2/3rd June 2013, one can clearly see the system gaining size ( hence strength) and pulling moisture in it. As a result, the amount of moisture in the Arabian Sea will decrease and subsequently the monsoon advance will get stalled for India ( Excluding the Bay Bengal branch)

In fact, NE India will see the monsoon advancing on time and hence eastern NE India states like Mizoram etc will witness the onset ON TIME AS MENTIONED BY METD WEATHER i.e around 1-3rd June 2013

The SW monsoon also will hit Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu that tenure itself but then as the system dominates, the advance is likely going to be affected.. We will wait for more details to come but the chance of happening this looks high as of now.

The monsoon will revive after a 5-6 day gap and hence advance into Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh by 10th June 2013 ( As per METD WEATHER's forecast).

II Bay System

Rains are being reported in Orissa and subsequent East India as a low pressure system continues to churn in the Bay of Bengal sending pulses towards India. Heavy rainfall ( accumulation over 100mm) is likely in Odisha in the next 48hrs ( prominently between Bhuvaneshwar-Kolkata geographical wise). That system will then move North and bring heavy rains in Western West Bengal,Jharkhand and southern Bihar by 1st June or so. 

People of Odisha and West Bengal coast must be attentive due to this system's movement and the rainfall due to it. 

IMPORTANT- METD WEATHER'S MONSOON FORECAST HAS BEEN USED WITHOUT PERMISSION

MONDAY, 27TH MAY 2013

0100HRS, IST 

NAGPUR

METD WEATHER'S INDIAN MONSOON FORECAST ( INDIMO)  USED BY A FEW WITHOUT PERMISSION 

Shortly after the Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO) was issued on the blog and facebook,a facebook page called "Moods of Monsoon" copied the same image of METD WEATHER AND DELETED OUR COPYRIGHT MARK. THEY ALSO ADDED THEIR OWN COPYRIGHT as (c) moods of monsoon to that image and shared on their facebook page. 

Upon being noticed, METD WEATHER immediately took an action by informing the readers on our facebook page and by asking them to write absurd comments on that page forcing them to take down that image or shut that page permanently. The page "Moods of Monsoon" wrote a very strange reply justifying that someone had hacked their page and did this act of imposing a copyright of their own brand on METD WEATHER's background image. 

Here is what Moods of Monsoon had done.I personally obtained this image from that page. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE FORECAST BELOW STANDS CANCELLED AND HENCE THERE IS NO POINT IN COPYING THIS IMAGE FURTHER . 

One can clearly see the (c) moods of monsoon sign on the top right. The background image is of METD WEATHER which I can confirm from the name of METD WEATHER written at the top i.e *Based on METD WEATHER's monsoon onset norms*... How can moods of monsoon use METD WEATHER norms????

The reason of hacking isn't acceptable as the page barely had 7-8 likes and no one will hack that page. Upon being forced to delete the page, shortly after this incident, readers of METD WEATHER confirmed that the page WAS DELETED

As a result of this malpractices, we have revised out forecast.. plus the new images have bigger and more copyright marks which won't allow others to steal them. 

ITS VERY DISAPPOINTING AND ANNOYING TO NOTE SUCH INCIDENCES. PEOPLE OF INDIA ARE SPOILING THE NAME OF OUR OWN COUNTRY BY DOING SUCH MALPRACTICES ESPECIALLY THE ACT OF :MOODS OF MONSOON:

HENCE I WISH TO BRING IT TO YOUR NOTICE THAT METD WEATHER HAS FULL RIGHTS OF THE IMAGES, TEXT. ANY USE OF IT WITHOUT PERMISSION OR CITATION WILL BE A MALPRACTICE AND METD WEATHER WON'T TAKE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF IT. 

IF YOU COME ACROSS MORE OF SUCH MORPHED METD WEATHER FORECAST MAPS, PLEASE REPORT BY SENDING A MESSAGE TO YOUR FACEBOOK. YOUR IDENTITY WON'T BE DISCLOSED AND WE WILL TAKE AN ACTION ON THE PAGE RESPONSIBLE

AKSHAY DEORAS

METD WEATHER

2013 INDIAN MONSOON FORECAST ( PUBLIC VERSION)

Dear Readers, 
Greetings! 

As a part of the annual forecast of the Indian Monsoon (IndiMO) since 2010, METD WEATHER brings the 2013 Indian Monsoon Forecast ( IndiMO ). The Summer Monsoon forecast is prepared using multiple parameters which include the Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO),El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their inter relation. Its widely observed that the Indian Summer Monsoon is largely affected by the atmospheric patterns such as the Madden Julian Oscillation which is directly linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Indian Ocean Dipole also plays some role in the strength of the monsoon current and subsequently affects the quantum of the monsoon rainfall. We will be using the IOD-MJO inter-relation parameter which was derived in 2012 Indian Monsoon Forecast (IndiMO 1) this year. 

To give a better idea about the monsoon, a portion from the 2011,2012 IndiMO Part 1 is being added. To help more in understanding, the forecast will be issued in two versions which includes a technical version and a public version. Public version is all about the conclusions explained in simple words for the readers. 

METD WEATHER has all the rights reserved for this forecast and the matter is (C) 2013 METD WEATHER. 

Apologies for the delay!

A.Deoras

REGION WISE FORECAST








1) SOUTHERN INDIA 

The IOD which is expected to be more towards weakly negative will lead to dry phase development which may reduce the rainfall amount in this area. However, due to favoured conditions, monsoon will follow the dates. The rainfall amounts shall increase from July. 

Region will witness " DEFICIENT" Rainfall with around 85% NORMAL RAIN.



2) Western India

The same conditions shall apply for Western India also as if the MJO activity remains less, monsoon winds shall be weak in this region.Also the arabian sea low pressure system will shape up which will cause the monsoon to be slightly delayed here leading to a less June month rainfall (as compared against the normal). However, it has been observed that the monsoon current as well as the quantum intensifies in later July/August which ultimately balances the deficit. 

The region will witness "SLIGHTLY DEFICIENT" rainfall around 85% of normal rainfall.



3) Northern India

The region can expect good rainfall unlike the other areas. The primary reason seems to be the wind patterns expected. The region will receive some rains from the Disturbances which may have a southernly dip than normal. This factor was observed in April month also when greater than normal thunderstorm activity was reported across North-East India as the trough dug more southward and brought rains. 

Aperiodic rainfall shall be there with 85% NORMAL and 15% DEFICIENT CONDITIONS



4) North East India

NE India will witness EXCESS Monsoon with the primary reason expected to be the less effective Bay of Bengal current.

Expected 100-105% OF THE NORMAL RAINS 


5) East India

Region shall witness NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY EXCESS MONSOON CONDITION. 

Expected 95% NORMAL


6) Central India

If one assumes the weak monsoon current due to negative IOD and dry MJO, Central India will have a less than normal rains but the rainfall due to low pressure systems will balance the deficit hence the resultant will be NORMAL RAINFALL 

rainfall will be 90% NORMAL and 10% DEFICIENT. 



7) Andaman and Nicobar Is. 

Normal rainfall is expected in this region around 95% of the normal rainfall. 


8) Lakshadweep and surrounding

Considering the expected strength of Monsoon current and Ekman Drift this region will witness deficient rainfall 


80% NORMAL

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





MONSOON ONSET DATES (as per METD WEATHER'S NORMS)





















-***  NICOBAR ISLANDS  AND ANDAMAN ISLANDS ( INCLUDING LITTLE NICOBAR,GREAT NICOBAR,KATCHAL,NANCOWRY ISLANDS AND VICINITY) - MONSOON HAS SET






** PRE MONSOON RAINS WILL INITIATE ACROSS SRI LANKA, SOUTHERN,WESTERN KERALA,TAMIL NADU AROUND THIS MONTH END




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SRI LANKA AROUND 1-2ND JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SOUTHERN INDIA LIKE KERALA, TAMIL NADU AND SOUTHERN MIZORAM AROUND 1-3RD JUNE 2013 




*** LAKSHADWEEP BY 6-7TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL COVER NORTH EAST INDIA ( 7 SISTER STATES) BY 10TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH CENTRAL KARNATAKA AND MOST OF ANDHRA PRADESH  AROUND 10TH JUNE 2013




*** MONSOON WILL REACH SOUTHERN,CENTRAL,WESTERN MAHARASHTRA AROUND 15-17 JUNE 2013




*** IT SHALL COVER MUMBAI BY 16/17TH JUNE 2013




***NORTHERN MAHARASHTRA,SOUTHERN  MADHYA PRADESH, CENTRAL GUJARAT,CHATTISGARH ( ALMOST ENTIRE) AND VICINITY BY 21ST JUNE 2013




MONSOON WILL ARRIVE IN NAGPUR ON 19/20TH JUNE 2013 (MEANINGFUL RAINS IN JULY HOWEVER)




*** NORTH INDIA PORTIONS TILL NEW DELHI BY 29TH JUNE 2013 AND PUNJAB AND FURTHER NORTH INDIA AFTERWARDS ( AROUND 3RD JULY OR SO)




*** IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE ARABIAN SEA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM I.E ITS POSITION AND INTENSITY 







*** FORECAST CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS. SO PEOPLE MUST FOLLOW UPDATES***











 Inference 



* METD WEATHER ESTIMATES THAT THE SUMMER MONSOON FOR INDIA IN 2013 (01ST JUNE - 30TH SEPTEMBER) WILL BE AROUND 90% NORMAL AND 10% DEFICIENT (IMD VALUE MAY REACH TO 95% NORMAL I.E DEPARTURE OF -5%)



* THE SUMMER MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL BE ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO 2012 YEAR'S MONSOON



* NEUTRAL EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, NEGATIVE INDIAN OCEAN 

DIPOLE AND LACK OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (WITH MORE DRY PHASE) SHALL REDUCE THE RAINFALL.



* SOUTHERN AND WESTERN,NORTHERN INDIA SHALL GET MORE DEFICIENT RAIN AS COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS. THE LOWEST MAY BE EXPECTED IN LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AND AROUND.



* NORTH EAST INDIA WILL GET EXCESS RAINFALL ALONG WITH EAST INDIA GETTING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCESS RAINFALL.



*MONSOON WILL BE WEAK IN JUNE



* LESSER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHALL AFFECT THIS YEAR PARTICULARLY IN ARABIAN SEA. 



* INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) SHALL REMAIN NEGATIVE ( MONTH WISE) THROUGHOUT THE SEASON. 



* ENSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD



* MJO INTERFERENCE SHALL BE WEAK IN BOTH THE PHASES. MORE DRY EVENTS EXPECTED