Arabian Low to bring heavy rains in Southern and Eastern Gujarat

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A low pressure in Arabian Sea which has been triggered due to remnants of cyclone Jal AND PROMINENTLY 90B INVEST few weeks back is on the final stage now. As of Evening of Saturday(20 Nov 2010), the low has 1006mb air pressure. The water vapor imagery of today evening of the low area is showing ample moisture at the core with cloud top temperature around -50C.
The low level convergence has weakened now and is around 5kt which is poor with upper conditions continuing favorable with 20kt Upper air divergence. The 850mb vorticity too shows good cyclonic spin at lower atmosphere with embedded 500mb negative vorticity are developing weak low level circulation (LLC)

The GFS cyclone models indicating some strengthening of the low may happen on Sunday as the low is forecasted to deepen to 1000mb.

METD WEATHER FORECAST
Looking at the present conditions, the low is definitely expected to strengthen little on Sunday as the blend of warm SST ( around 30C) continues to supply latent heat the to the system with favorable upper air divergence. The setup seems to be a Cold asymmetrical core meaning to a greater chance of rains domination than Cyclonic strength gain! I expected some wide area of convection to hit Gujarat from Sunday till Tuesday early period.
Majority action shall be on Monday

Rains are widely expected in entire Southern and eastern Gujarat { EXCLUDING BHUJ AREA} . SOUTH WESTERN TIP OF GUJARAT LIKE GIR AREA,PORBANDAR WILL WITNESS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOWED BY Vadodara,Ahemedabad,Surat,Rajkot etc are the cities where rains will ALSO lash. Also rains will be there in Western Madhya Pradesh.

The forecasted low is not suspected to become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR CYCLONE.

NOTICE-

NO WEATHER FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE BLOG,FACEBOOK AS METD WEATHER WILL REMAIN CLOSE FROM SUNDAY,21ST NOV 2010 TO FRIDAY,26TH NOV 2010