Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- STS 131,Space Shuttle Discovery launch from Kennedy Space Center,FL
Due to very bad weather on Thursday, Discovery Space Shuttle is expected to launch today(Friday) at around 0304PM EDT. (1904hrs GMT)
RULES VS FORECAST
1] Tanking will not begin if the 24hrs temperature has been below 41F(5C)
24hr minimum temperature was around 55.4F (13C)
So Step 1 is accepted
2] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND IS FORECASTED OR IS ABOVE 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS
Wind is expected to be around 14kt in the launch window period.
Wind gusts will be around 19-20kt.
So Step 2 is accepted
3] PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR IN THE FLIGHT'S PATH
Around 45% chance of rains in the launch pad. But forecasts indicating very less rain chance and forecast GFS will be correct.
So step 3 is on hold.
4] LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS
Lightning is not expected today at Launch pad.
So Step 4. is accpeted
5] CLOUDS MUST BE NON CONVECTIVE AND ABOVE 8000FT
IF BELOW 8000FT THEN THICKNESS SHOULD BE LESS
Clouds are expected to be above 6000ft.
Light clouds are expected.
This step is not expected to create a problem but STEP 5. is on hold temporarily
6] This step is when the RULE 1. is not valid
So Step 6. is accepted
4 out of 6 steps are clear and LAUNCH REMAINS 67% favorable ( around 70% GO)
30% no go due to some high winds and little chance of spells of rain which is RARE
METD WEATHER GIVES THE LAUNCH "GO" FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT HIGH WINDS AND VERY VERY LESS CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH PAD AS PER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
I EXPECT LAUNCH WILL HAPPEN TODAY AT 0304PM EDT!
NASA HAS GIVEN "GO" FOR TANKING AND LAUNCH FORECAST REMAINS 70% GO as per their weather forecast