Severe Weather Forecaster
The GFS 850mb showing typical SW Monsoon signatures as blend of rich moisture has deposited over Central and Southern India due to the Tropical Cyclone JAL land sweep over much of Southern and Central India earlier this week. A typical feature which happens during Monsoon season in India as the bay low sweeps over Central India precipitating heavily in course due to moisture deposition.
Rainfall was widely observed in Eastern Maharashtra and Central Maharashtra on Monday with data recorder recorded light to moderate rains in Nagpur. Unfortunately no data was recorded at METD WEATHER hq as I was away (around 80kms) from the city on a short vacation.
The 200-300mb map is also showing the jet streams have a more southerly flow and extent, a typical monsoon feature. Such feature prevents formation and impacts of so called western disturbance or Extratropical storm originating in Mediterranean area and bringing rains and snow in North Inda. So as long as the GFS is showing good low level moisture at least till more than Half of November i.e ( upto 20th Nov) most of the areas will have warmer nights and early mornings than the sudden chilly dip which happened in late October.
Anticyclone is expected to build over North Central India in next week that might act like Monsoon withdrawal system and then permitting Winter.
COOLING CONTINUES IN NORTH INDIA
As North India is away from this low level moisture zone, cooling is continuing with minimum temperatures around 12-13C.
Srinagar is having min temperatures near to 3C.
The cool air is unable to move in Central India as the winds don't have a Northerly flow. They are southerly.
RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL INDIA
AS THE BLEND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COLLIDE WITH THE ARRIVING COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO COLLIDE