Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Tornadoes to AIM Southern States of USA. SPC UPGRADES TO MODERATE RISK

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across Louisiana,SW Mississippi.

Massive upper trough having discrete jet streaks amplifying into Texas-Oklahoma shall bring some severe weather down south.

Severe weather shall erupt into a wide area stretching from Eastern,SE Oklahoma into Central and East Central Texas in afternoon period. Intense convection is likely into SE and Central TX due to presence of CAPE reaching upto 2000J/Kg in the area of 60F dewpoint East of the Dryline.

Threat for Afternoon tornado is less but threat increases later period with the progression of dryline westward and presence of Low Level Jets. ( Evening to night hours)

The primary threat looks for Western Louisiana border around Marshall,TX

Evening storms shall be capable for producing isolated thunderstorms with hails which shall modify amidst 1000J/KG CAPE and Light to Moderate SHEARS for tornadoes.

Main threat lies across Louisiana and SW Mississippi into overnight.
Moderate Risk upgrade

Developing storms will progress into LA,Mississippi into evening to night hours with the progress of warm front, supercell formations shall enhance and produce some tornadoes. There is a CAP though in this region.
Heavy Rains also expected due to HP supercells.
Widespread wind damage also possible

My tornado target lies close to Marshall,TX for late afternoon period.

Nocturnal long time tornadoes possible in LA,Mississippi

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