Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Light Rains reported in Nagpur. chance of Thunderstorm persists

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post, the incursion of moisture already lead to precipitation ( Light to Very light rainfall ) in Nagpur today morning at around 0410hrs.

The SKEWT plot for the morning indicating the Precipitable Water around 0.84inch meaning low moisture content

K index or KI index which determines the Convective Potential is around Moderate level
and the TOTAL TOTALS plot indicates likely thunderstorm

The Equivalent Potential Temp ( Theta E) is around 316J which is sufficient to fuel thunderstorms.

Considering all the parameters-

Upgrade to 15% chance

There is a 15% chance of Rain and Thunderstorm ( On max 30%) i.e 50% out of 100% around Nagpur throughout the day
10% chance of T.Storm in Nagpur

The Lifted Condensation Level ( Is around 10,000 ft which is the base of clouds)
Moisture also is favorable with lifting mechanism.
Rainfall shall be isolated followed by a Thunderstorm.

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