UPDATED AS PER 00Z GFS,18TH FEB AT 1300HRS IST( 18TH FEB 2011)
Severe Weather Forecaster
Wide spread area of Anticyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal as a part of High and Low pressure over South West Bengal and South Central India at the lower levels shall pump moisture over Eastern Maharashtra from Bay of Bengal on Saturday (19th Feb) resulting in sudden increase in mid and low level moisture over Orissa,Andhra Pradesh and interior Chattisgarh
Fair moisture increase shall happen in Eastern Maharashtra including Nagpur district and adjoining areas prominently on Saturday
The 12z GFS are indicating RH at 850mb to increase to 70% over Eastern Maharashtra.
The latest guidance from GFS meteograms are indicating presence of moisture at 700mb briefly on Saturday with some rise in moisture by late night concluding chance of rains
At night period on Saturday, VERY LIGHT ( SCANTY FEW DROPS OF RAINS) shall be there in Nagpur being isolated for sure.
With marginal instability due to day time heating, little CAPE a chance of thunderstorm is also there but being 5% on Scale of max 30%
Thus forecast for Saturday ( 19th Feb 2011)
Partly to Mostly cloudy in the day/afternoon.
Rain in 6-9PM slot - 2% on scale of max 30%
Rain in 9-11:59PM slot - 10% on max 30% ( SCANTY)
Thunderstorm at night - 2%
Rains are expected to continue in light intensity across night ( periods of no rain also)
With more saturation on Sunday, Light rains are expected on Sunday morning
With expected Convection on Sunday afternoon there is a chance of thunderstorm with light rains on Sunday night
Forecast for Sunday (20th Feb)
Mostly Cloudy in afternoon
Chance of Thunderstorm 10% on scale of Max 30% at evening period
Chance of Rain at night/Evening 15% on scale of Max 30% at night
Chance of Rain in Morning is 10%