Severe Weather Forecaster
Concerning- Moderate Risk
A potent mid level trough currently with the upper low in CA shall eject into the plans via SW TX where the dryline will mix by late evening hours as a result, jet streaks upto 120kt aloft shall form during the weak cyclogenesis as SFC pressure is around 996mb over NRN OK tonight.
A Bimodal severe threat pattern shall be seen as the moving impulse from the setup shall get enhanced kinetic and thermodynamic support in the regions of AR,NRN LA,SRN IL,TN where amplifying nocturnal jets reaching upto 60kt at night in WNW TN,NE AR rising warm sector dewpoints to 60F while marginal MLCAPE upto 750J/Kg as per GFS and into 1000J/KG as per NAM.
( THE 850MB PLOT FOR LATE PERIOD ON SUNDAY)
Despite the strong dynamics,
( STRONG CAP DURING AFTERNOON,EVENING INTO THE STATES)
CONVECTION REMAINS DOUBTFUL DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP ( CAPPING INVERSION) OVER THESE STATES. CAP OR CINH BREAKS OF IF THERE IS A STRONG DAY TIME HEAT, UPWARD LIFT,LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,LOW WAA ,
THE LI SHALL BE LOW TO MODERATELY IN UNSTABLE CATEGORY ACROSS THE EVENT REDUCING POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING OF CAP.
( SEE BOTTOM IMAGE)
If the CAP breaks on time, Thunderstorms shall modify to supercells and likely product tornadoes due to classic curved low level areas in the hodograph
SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms here.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN
IND...FAR W KY...WRN TN...SERN MO...CNTRL/NRN AR AND EXTREME ECNTRL OK...
THE ENTIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH BREAKING OF CAP
** IF CAP BREAKS UP, TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS,WEST TN,SE MO BRIEFLY
** MY TORNADO TARGET CONSIDERING PARAMETERS IN NAM and GFS IS CLOSE TO JONESBORO,AR