Severe Weather Forecaster
Another Shortwave trough originating from Mediterranean sea is likely to hammer North India with a blend of rains/snow.
The GFS models are indicating the presence of a negative vorticity system reaching the 552dm height at 500mb level will precipitate heavy rains in Central Pakistan today and tomorrow.
As conditions come together for strengthening of trough over Pakistan ( typical setup),
the advancing shortwave shall modify to a strong extratropical storm system by tomorrow(12th Feb) and will cause rains and snowfall in North India from tomorrow(12th feb)
Jammu and Kashmir-
The state shall receive rains and snowfall from 12th Feb - 17th Feb 2011
As the temperature profile around 850mb shall be above freezing point
Widespread rains are expected from tomorrow till 15th Feb 2011
( Meteogram posted above)
SNOWFALL IN SRINAGAR ON 14TH FEB
For Higher reaches like Gulmarg,Sonamarg ... Pehalgam etc
SNOWFALL for sure from tonight WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS
*** MARK 5 ALERT,PDS,AVALANCHE WARNING FROM METD WEATHER
KARGIL,DRASS AND LADAKH
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM 12TH FEB-17TH FEB...( INTENSITY REDUCING FROM 15TH ONWARDS)
Thus for J&K, I expect daily overcast to mostly cloudy conditions.
Heavy snow in all higher reaches.
Heaviest snow on 13th Feb in higher reaches*
Higher reaches shall receive snowfall from tomorrow till 17th Feb 2011
Snowfall shall be VERY HEAVY FOR NORTHERN HP ON SUNDAY(13TH FEB) AND FOR CENTRAL HP ON 16TH FEB
MARK 5 ALERT FROM METD WEATHER
Manali shall receive snowfall on Sunday night which shall be moderate.
due to deficient moisture at lower levels, I don't expect snowfall in Central HP and Southern HP.
Rather Freezing rain or SLEET is possible
Rains in Northern Plain
Subsequent rainfall will hit North India plains especially Punjab,Haryana,Delhi,Uttaranchal with thunderstorm also.
Rainfall shall be there from Monday with periods of no rainfall in between also.
Tue-Wed( 15-16th Feb) rainfall amount will be slightly greater
I don't see chance of hails this time as the freezing level stays aloft and any formed hailstone shall reach the ground as raindrop due to warmer temp.profile
For New Delhi,Chandigarh rainfall is eminnent on 15th and 16th Feb and not on the rest days where rainfall is expected in Amritsar