Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The arriving Western Disturbance with Westerly upper winds are expected to pump moisture over the central parts of India. Due to increase in the moisture at the mid levels of atmosphere over Nagpur and vicinity, clouds shall start building up ( Already it was partly cloudy on Monday - 4th Apr with light convection happening) and will lead to cloud cover.
As depicted by the meteograms, blend of moisture shall continue from today onwards reaching max during 6-8th April
The presence of day time heating with unstable atmosphere due to some CAPE, the parcel of air shall be lifted on a strong basis as depicted by the lifted index upto -2
and lead to convection. Cumulonimbus clouds will start taking shape and lead to mature thunderstorms.
As thunderstorms strike, rainfall and high velocity winds are also likely during the period
Forecast-
5th April 2011-
Some deep layer moisture shall be present at around 600mb around Nagpur. The Lifted Condensation Level and the Cloud Condensation Level CCL shall be around this layer as the parcel of air lifted adiabatically shall condense.
Probability on max 30%
CB clouds with Partly to Mostly cloudy sky.
Chance of Rain and Thunderstorm - 3%
6th April ( Wed)
With Increase in the mid level moisture and some lifting mechanism,
Chance of Rain and Thunderstorm - 6%
7th April 2011 ( Thu)
10% chance of rain and thunderstorm
8th April 2011-
10% chance of rain and thunderstorm
9th April 2011 -
5% chance of Rains.
** PROBABILITY ARE SUBJECTED TO CHANGE AS PER NEW MODEL RUNS AND SHALL BE UPDATED HERE
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Akshay Deoras
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Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
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