Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Fwd: Enhanced Convection phase of MJO approaching!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


As forecasted the persisting dry phase or the phase of suppressed convection which is a part of the Inter-seasonal variation in atmosphere ( Madden Julian Oscillation).
The Outgoing LongWave radiation ( OLR) are depicting +2.0 suppressed phase.

As discussed in the paper available here, the surface winds move from region of suppressed convection to enhanced convection thus shaping up a Wet Phase

The datas of the 200mb anomaly (wave track) and the OLR show an approaching phase of Enhanced convection presently over the Atlantic slowly progressing towards the Indian Ocean.
The forecast shows arrival of this wave by 26th May 2011 and shall be in the greatest magnitude between 30 May to 5th June
This will provide a boost to South-West Monsoon and shall help it to keep up with its dates
especially arriving in Southern India at the correct time

Parts of Western Coastal area will also witness enhanced rainfall with sudden improvement in Low level moisture

Heat Wave-
The Heat wave gripped New Delhi today with max temperature of 44C as of 42C from yesterday
Wednesday shall be the most effective day and temperature are sure to experience maxima !

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