Argentina Severe Weather Outbreak Possible in Next 18hrs< cal. from 18:00 GMT

METD Int
Argentina

concerning for severe weather

The GFS forecast shows that a massive mid range trough is just off the
shore of Chile.
This trough is a good which can create many things
The first feature will be it will not be a zonal flow that is the
trough digs in argentina-chile border.The jet at present is situated
behind it and will move to areas near Catamarca,Ar and interestingly
the pressure is expected to be 990mb only. in next 18hrs
THIS MEANS IT IS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
The jet will be near catamarca and as there will be availability of
CAPE chance of severe weather outbreak increases.Also Humidity will be
present which helps in strengthining of thunderstorm. I don't have any
update on HELICITY as There are no models within my range showing
them.
This system will cause heavy rains as well in there areas. Tornado
chances might be there as everything is good.....

another powerful system is digging in slowly in the outlook of RIDGE
for N.hemisphere but is actually a trough as i always say.
This is to the very south of argentina near puerto natales,CHILE.
This is weaker than the one mentioned above as the central pressure
would be 996mb
But this is unfavourable as the position would be in lower 40s. The
temperatures there are low and dewpoint is less. so we can just expect
rains and no thunderstorm

So METD now aims to catch the action from the system of pressure
gradient 990mb which knocks very soon in argentina-chile border.
It will be exciting to see what a system of 990mb does as last day a
system of 996mb created supercells!!!!

Stay tuned for updates only on METD Int

METD
Akshay

METD STARTS TRACKING ARGENTINA WEATHER

METD Hq,

 

With the already onset of tornadoes with hails in southern hemisphere, TVN's Reed Timmer my teacher in this field has set out to Argentina to catch tornadoes. Likewise METD also desires to catch the science of tornadoes in southern hemisphere on internet.

SO we have decided that We will track argentinas weather and inform you about Severe WEather outbreaks.

Argentina is famous for tornadoes as We have Tornado alley in usa.This is a peak time for tornadoes like we have april-may in USA.

 

AS on the prelimenary track day,WE have discovered that Argentina today was subjected to Low pressure.

The pressure over North-eastern and south western argentina was low to 998mb but it was higher in north of the country to 1007mb apx.

There has been clouds since last few hours and they have warm core<thunderstorm core> but now it looks it has lost it.

Though the GFS forecasting for severe weather in argentina looks good we dont have someone to tell the RUC model and also to provide datas like twisterdata.com does. I have found some links which can help us to track. But still would be challenging.......

 

encl- CLouds over argentina and pressure of 996mb in southern argentina

 

For akshay's gyaan readers I am sorry I am unable to give time but you can see the discussions on facebook.com/astrophysics

we have opened a Facebook METD weather fan page face

 

http://www.facebook.com/pages/METD-WEATHER/375172700693?ref=mf#/pages/METD-WEATHER/375172700693

 

you can get to see all actions right here

 

I WILL BE BACK ON AKSHAY'S GYAAN WITH SOME NEW IDEA VERY SOON

TILL THEN HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR

Akshay

Blizzard warning once more in Northern USA after Getting to Oklahoma and Tornado watches

METD WEATHER,USA
Akshay Deoras,LEAD Weather investigator

Yesterday there was a severe weather outbreak in USA as whole.
First there were record breaking tornadoes in southern side in
Lousiana. A total of 25 tornadoes happened in 2 days and they were
quite destructive.
At present 300mb forecast shows intense jets of 100 knots which will
progress as the day progresses to the south. This system will settle
over Dakotas and will bring heavy snow, Also Heavy winds 35-45mph and
low visibility will add to blizzard conditions and NWS has already
issued BLIZZARD WARNING.

snow depth model which has been newly introduced on twisterdata.com (c) TVN
shows that within 24 hours more than 24" of snow is likely to be
accumulated in parts of WIsconsin and will be 8-15" in south dakota.

BLizzard warnings have been issued for North-south
Dakota,Nebraska,North-east Kansas.

At the same time, NWS has issued tornado watches for Florida,South
carolina,Georgia.
Tornado watches are no. 810,811.
Tornadoes will happen very soon probably in next 5 hours at the warned areas.
For Blizzard in Oklahoma,
The blizzard produced impressive snow totals of 4 to 10 inches from
Amarillo to Wichita Falls to northwest Dallas to 12 to 15 inches
across southwest to central Oklahoma.
These snow totals smashed existing records for northwest Texas to
Oklahoma City with a white Christmas now guaranteed.
The heavy snow will be accompanied by winds gusting in excess of 50
miles per hour creating whiteout conditions throughout the Central and
Northern Plains through the day today.
Freezing rain will result starting this morning in western North
Carolina and southwest Virginia expanding northward into the interior
portions of the Northeast today.
As the day moves forward, rain will invade the eastern portions of the
Mid-Atlantic reaching Southeast New York by this afternoon.
The rain is expected to come down moderately to heavy at times
combining with melting snow to produce localized flooding problems
from Washington D.C. to New York city tonight into Saturday.
Saturday, the change from wintry mix to freezing rain to rain will
continue northward across the remainder of Upstate New York and New
England.

Latest report from Silver spring is showing 0 deg celcius and freezing
rains are due there from 10 am EST also there w'd be winds upto 35mph
there.
Keep tracking METD for details

DECEMBER IS DEFINATELY HISTORIC FOR WEATHER

CAN BE ANOTHER HISTORIC DAY IN USA WITH REFRENCE TO WEATHER.TORNADO CHANCES NOW MODERATE

METD WEATHER

ALERT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES

AT PRESENT SPC HAS SHIFTED TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INDEED IS A BIG ONE AS THE AIR PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH-EAST OKLAHOMA IS OVER 996mb. 

Intense low pressure jets more than 50 knot jet are present. Actually a lot of moisture is being provided by this system from the atlantic which is actually helping the thunderstorm to split into supercells. 

SPC has issued Mesoscale discussion and watches for tornadoes and it has to be a historical day. 

AS the day progresses, this system will move in the missourie valley and a shifting warmfront will help in some more severe outbreak. the chance of Hails also is there and might be as large as 1 inch golf ball..The EHI but natural also good and positioned over coast. So there has to be a coastal flood warning

This system will deactivate only when the cold front arrives that is expected by evening

Keep tracking us and for another 12 hours turn to spc.noaa.gov as it is time for shut down for METD due to a night here.

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO HAS BEEN ISSUED

#807 UNTIL 100 PM CST

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER 

HAS ISSUED A    TORNADO WATCH

 FOR PORTIONS OF             

   SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL

 AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS  

         LOUISIANA EXCEPT FAR

 NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST 

PORTIONS           PORTIONS OF 

WESTERN MISSISSIPPI          

 PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS     

      COASTAL WATERS      

  EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY

 MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM

 450 AM UNTIL    100 PM CST. 

       TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1

 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM

 WIND GUSTS    TO 75 MPH...AND 

DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE

 IN THESE AREAS.

METD 

AKSHAY

Tornadoes happening in southern section and heavy snows and blizzards up in the north

Tornadoes dominating in the south

A severe weather alert is still on after the southern USA was
dominated by more than dozen of tornado. METD has missed little in
this forecasting as we were dealing with some local problems. The RUC
forecast showed a drastic change in The CAPE and EHI values which
facilated over 12 tornadoes in Texas east,Lousiana.
The day has begun again and so shall the action. The RADAR is showing
that thunderstorm in lousiana is splitting into supercells and they
are surely capable of producing tornadoes.
Tornado warnings are in effect.
It is a squall line system

The countries which might be affected from hails,high winds and tornadoes are
catahoula,franklin,west
caroll,concordia,ashley,richland,tensas,morehouse,chicot.

These warnings are upto 1 pm.A warm front and cold front together are
helping in developement of tornadoes

Keep up with ur tornado preparedness things and keep tracking
spc.noaa.gov for details

HEAVY SNOW STORM AND THUNDERSTORM IN USA IN 48 HRS

 METD WEATHER STATION 

ALERT DEPT ALERT FOR WINTER STORM AND THUNDERSTORM A powerful low pressure system is moving in the country from the north western side. This is bringing snowfall on its way. At present The RUC forecast for 300mb shows trough is digging in from Washington state,There is another one digging in directly from south-western states. SO infact, we w'd be having a joint effect of this two troughs over central and southern areas. At first this trough will enter and mix with the southern trough. There will be low level jets of 50 knots over south dakota which will bring rains in the form of heavy snowfall. By the time the snow ends on

Version:1.0 StartHTML:0000000168 EndHTML:0000003251 StartFragment:0000000471 EndFragment:0000003234

Christmas Day, significant accumulations will have occurred. Present indications are that 7 to 10 inches of total snow will fall across far western Nebraska, with 8 to 14 inches in the Imperial, North Platte, and Valentine areas. In the Broken Bow and O'Neill areas, 12 to 18 inches are expected. Significant blowing and drifting snow is also expected Thursday into Christmas as a result of strong winds. The combination of wind and snow in the Plains could lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions in parts of Kansas and Nebraska, possibly into other areas as well SO travellers during christmas must set out early as if they want to travel west, Then These snowy conditions will prevent them from doing so. THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH The Powerful low level system with 120 knot jet will bring heavy rains in the south. Actually there will be a thunderstorm which might be capable of producing isolated thunderstorms.However the chance of Tornadoes will be less as the CAPE is limited for tornadoes. though there would be extreme wind shears..The EHI are also down. The low level jets of 50 knot will bring heavy rains in southeast texas and southwest lousiana also in pensacola . NWS has issued Flood Warnings across southern states like lousiana,southeast texas.Some thunderstorms are possible in the Desert Southwest. NWS has also issued winter storm warning for Nebraska areas. MERRY X'MAS TO ALL METD READERS.

Stay tuned for Updates  

METD 

Akshay

CURRENT PHOTOS OF WINTER STORM IN WASHINGTON DC AREA 2009

BLIZZARD HAPPENING NEAR WASHINGTON DC

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE NOW MOVED TO WASHINGTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS

AS HAD EXPECTED BY METD, THE LOW PRESSURE IN AREAS OF DC AND NEARBY AREAS.THIS IS CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN AREAS FROM LEXINGTON PARK,FREDERICKSBURG,ANNAPOLIS,BELAIR. 

THE PRESENT REPORT FROM WASHINGTON DC SAYS THAT THERE IS HEAVY SNOW AND TEMPERATURE IS -3.8 C.WIND IS ABOUT 16.1 KM/HR 

THIS IS INDEED A HISTORIC WINTER STORM

METD

AKSHAY

MASSIVE WINTER STORM ACROSS EAST USA THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

METD ALERT DEPT
ALERT FOR HEAVY SNOW

The 300 mb forecast shows that there will be a heavy activity that
will begin this midnight Eastern time in usa. The trough with 100
knots+ value is currently setting over eastern states of usa like
maryland,virginia,New york, and the surrounding states. This is
expected to bring heavy rains which will convert to snow as the
temperatures are below the freezing point. The 100 knot trough will
activate the system. As Day <saturday> falls another powerful system
will move north which will have 140 knots jets that will hit right
around saturday evening to afternoon hours. This will be the real
show. The 72 accumulated precipitaion from this hour shows that it
would be about 5-7" accumulation of snow in areas of
Maryland,Baltimore,Washington,Newyork etc. bUT NATURAL,LOW LEVEL JETS
OF 60 KNOTTS WILL BE THERE AT THE WARNED AREAS.These incredible
precipitation totals can be attributed to the NAM predicting the
coastal storm to "bomb out", or drop 12 mb in 12 hours, with the
minimum central pressure dipping to around 975 mb by Saturday night!
The resulting intense pressure gradient on the backside of the storm
will cause blizzard conditions with gusts to near 50 mph.THE COASTAL
AREAS IN THESE WARNED AREAS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAINS AS THERE IS WARM AIR
FROM COASTAL AREAS.

NWS has released Winter warnings for these areas activating from
Friday Midnight to sunday morning. I am sure this can be a historic
one and people will enjoy a lot.

my relatives in silver spring,MD will get a turn to catch this winter
storm as well and I am expecting some good phtotos from here as well.

For my relatives here is a warning

SNOW ACTION STARTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE HEAVY ON 16:00 HRS ON
SATURDAY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING TO 5"+

And here is spc's take on it
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...EMORYVILLE...
HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
405 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
* PRECIP TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN OR NEAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THE EVENT IN THE
BALTIMORE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND.

* WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE EVENT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES-
AKSHAY DEORAS

Blizzard Warning across Michigan uptil 4PM EST

This winter storm has been a great one and probably a Historic one. It is the first winter storm that is being chased on METD. There was Blizzard warning across most of areas in north USA day before yesterday . Now Michigan has been targeted by snow. There is a blizzard warning across Grand rapids,Michigan. Currently it is -8.2 Deg Celcius in Grand Rapids.the visibility is almost 0.8 Kilometers. It is snow freezing rain. The blizzard warning is upto 4pm EST.

Recently there has been a fresh heavy snow as METD had said in Northern India. 

METD

Akshay

Tornado warnings in EASTERN MISSUORIE,WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ALBAMA

METD ALERT DEPT

The powerful trough which has dug into the southern plains might bring tornadoes in parts like eastern missuorie and N central and western Albama

There is a little but sufficient energy present in the atmosphere to activate the process of supercell formation from the squall lines of thunderstorms. SPC calls it " GREATEST SEVERE THREAT" Warm fornt is lifting slowly towards AND EXTENDS FROM SRN THROUGH W-CNTRL AL INTO N-CNTRL MS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A 70+ Kt low level jet has advected in this area. There are changing shears of winds. Despite of cold in the upper areas,this region is pretty active with dewpoints ranging 60F.Instability is 500joules as had mentioned above.STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRAIN NEWD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET. Moisture is available in this area. ALREADY SQUALLS ARE SPLITTING INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE GETTING CONVERTED TO SUPERCELLS.SPC HAS RELEASED A MESO. DISCUSSION ON IT

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND N CNTRL AL..

TORNADO OUTBREAK IS MOSTLY AS THE EHI'S ARE AT VALUE OF 4-5

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS WELL

METD

AKSHAY

HEAVY SNOWFALL AND RAINS IN NORTHERN INDIA

THE CURRENT 300MB FORECAST SHOWING A THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS APPROACHING TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIA


A powerful layer of jet stream is approaching northern india with 140mph. there is a strong possibility of convection of air. there will be rainy clouds due to this phenomena from the Mediterranean sea. there will be heavy snow in the higher altitudes region including parts of himachal pradesh like district Kyelong etc. There will be rains in the lower altitude regions like Jammu.

the ground conditions are favourable for snowfall
This jet stream will reach in about 24 hours. So we can expect rains more than 10mm and snows equally. There will be snowaccmulation which will increase the snow level in valley areas. there might be a 3-5" snowfall in parts of central J&K.


So stay alerted and tune for updates

METD
Akshay

BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS COLORADO

METD ALERT DEPT

WARNING FOR BLIZZARD IN COLORADO

A STORM SYSTEM IS SWEEPING CURRENTLY ACROSS COLORADO. THERE ARE
ALREADY LOW TEMPERATURES IN AREAS OF COLORADO LIKE GRAND
JUNCTION,DURANGO,BLANDING ETC.

Clouds will be on the increase this late night at the time when a
powerful storm structure will progress from the west. this will cause
rainfall in the form of snow in the northeast of Utah mountains and
northern and central parts of Colorado. the expected snowfall in this
areas would be about 6-12". THE NEXT 24HR 300MB SYSTEM shows that
another powerful storm system would sweep across Many parts of usa
including colorado. The 120 knot value is good for causing heavy
widespread snowfall in southern colorado creating blizzard conditions.
A BLIZZARD IS A CONDITION WHEN THERE IS INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW TEMP,STORNG
WINDS.

Stay tuned for updates

METD
AKSHAY

ACTION AFTER A BREAK

METD ALERT DEPT

USA

THE SOUTHERN STORM IS IMPACTING STATES LIKE ALBAMA SOUTH,FLORIDA PANHANDLE,SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

SYNOPSIS

A SOUTHERN STORM IS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH EAST. DAMAGING HAILS,HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE..

MORE THREAT IS TO THE COAST IN BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY.

THE 850MB SHOWS MANY LOW LEVEL JETS IN THESE AREAS WHICH WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA.

THE CONDITIONS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PERFECT IN THIS REGION DUE TO COASTAL WINDS

THERE ARE LARGE CHANGING SHEARS WITH DIRECTION<HELICITY> IN THIS AREA. THE EHI 0-1KM SOARS TO 8 NEAR PANAMA CITY

AS THE EVENING GOES AHEAD, THE CHANCE OF RAINS INCREASES IN THESE AREAS

HERES' SPC UPDATE

   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE    ALABAMA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.  FOR A    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

---

http://windows.microsoft.com/shop Find the right PC for you.

More temp.drop expected

METD ALERT

METD ALERTS FOR SEVERE TEMPERATURE DROP IN NAGPUR IN THIS WEEK

I was busy with studies but was shocked to see the models when I
turned on the computer today

There has been severe snowfall in North india including areas like
srinagar,leh and the highway from srinagar to leh where we 'd probably
go in summer.
This is all due to increase in the activity from the Mediterranean sea.

the lowest temp recorded till now this year in NGP is 11.8 C
But this record is sure to be broken in this week as the cool wave is
approaching

It looks there will be a 9-10 Deg Celcius by Wednesday-thursday
In leh it is -24Celcius and in delhi it is as low as 8 Celcius

Also Argentina will be having tornadoes tomorrow

Akshay

RECORD OF WINDS,CENTRAL PRESSURE AND DAMAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN IN THE ARABIAN SEA.

METD WEATHER STATION
DATA OBSERVATION CENTER
NAGPUR,INDIA

SUBJECT-

OBSERVATIONS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN

DEAR ALL
WE HAVE RECEIVED THE DATAS FROM THE CYCLONE PHYAN LIKE WIND KNOT,CENTRAL PRESSURE, DESTRUCTION ETC

A cyclonic storm, 'Phyan' crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1530 and 1630 hrs IST of 11th November, 2009.

Best track Positions and other parameters for cyclonic storm PHYAN over
the Arabian Sea during 09-12 November 2009


THE DATA IS AS FOLLOWS
DD/MM/YY/ TIME/ LAT/LONG/CI.NO/CENTRAL PRESSURE/WIND KNOT/GRADE
--------------------------------------------------------------------

9-11-2009

0900 11.0/72.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1200 11.5/71.5 1.5 1000 4 25 D
1800 12.0/71.0 1.5 1000 4 25 D

10-11-2009

0000 12.5/70.5 1.5 998 4 25 D
0300 13.0/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
0600 13.5/70.5 2.0 998 5 30 DD
1200 14.5/71.0 2.0 996 5 30 DD
1800 15.0/71.0 2.5 996 6 35 CS
2100 15.5/71.5 2.5 994 6 35 CS

11-11-2009
0000 16.0/71.5 2.5 992 8 40 CS
0300 17.0/72.0 3.0 990 10 45 CS
0600 17.5/72.5 3.0 988 12 45 CS
0900 19.0/73.0 2.5 992 8 40 CS

The cyclonic storm "PHYAN" crossed Maharashtra coast between Alibag and
Mumbai between 1000 & 1100 UTC of 11th November, 2009.
1200 19.5/73.5 -- 996 5 30 DD
1500 20.0/74.0 -- 998 5 30 DD
1800 20.0/74.0 -- 1000 4 20 D

12-11-2009
0000 The system weakened into a well marked low pressure area over north Madhya Maharashtra.

GRADE INDEX

D : Depression,
DD : Deep depression
CS : Cyclonic Storm

----------------------------------------------------------------------

MUMBAI LOSS

THE CYCLONE WAS A DEEP DEPRESSION WHICH HAD LOST ITS PRECIOUS CORE. IT WAS FILLED WITH WATER AND WINDS ONLY

LANDFALL FOR MUMBAI WAS ON 11TH NOV 09 AT 15:30HRS
WIND KNOTS-
30
CENTRAL PRESSURE
998hPa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

FOR CYCLONGENESIS

Environmental features
The environmental features like sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear
of horizontal wind, mid-tropospheric humidity, low level convergence, upper level
divergence and coriolis force were favourable for cyclogenesis over the southeast
Arabian Sea on 9th. The sea surface temperature was about 28-30 deg. C over
southeast and east central Arabian Sea. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind
was low to moderate (10-20 knots) at 0830 hrs IST of 9th. In addition, the Madden
Julian Oscillation was also favourable, as its active phase lay over west equatorial.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

WIND HISTORY

The maximum wind (Kmph) reported at observatory stations of IMD at the
time of land fall are given below:
Pune : 68,
Goa 63,
Colaba,MUMBAI- 56.
However, according to Newspaper report, maximum surface wind was about
75 kmph along Maharashtra coast at the time of landfall.
The wind speed predicted at the time was 65--75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph
along and off Maharashtra and Goa coast based on 0830 IST observation of 10th
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Damage:

According to Newspaper report, the cyclone 'Phyan' caused damage to lives,
crops and properties in Goa and Konkan region especially in Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg,
Raigad and Thane districts. About 1000 houses in these districts suffered damages.
Seven persons died and 44 are missing due to cyclone 'Phyan'.
----------------------------------------------------------------------




METD WEATHER STATION
AKSHAY DEORAS

CYCLONE PHYAN BY-PASSES MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN PASSES THROUGH MUMBAI

CYCLONE PHYAN HAS PASSED MUMBAI RECENTLY ONE HOUR BEFORE TIME PREDICTED BY METD

THE CYCLONE PASSED MUMBAI RAPIDLY WITH LESS DISTRUCTION THAN EXPECTED.

THE DATAS FROM THIS PASSBY WOULD BE LOADED SOON ON METD

AKSHAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES PATH. TO HIT MUMBAI EVENING

TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYAN CHANGES ITS PATH

THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED ITS PATH NOW.

THE CYCLONE EARLIER WAS TARGETED TO MOVE TO GUJRAT THROUGH ARABIAN SEA BUT NOW IT WILL MAKE A LANDFALL VERY SOON

THE WORST NEWS IS THAT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE HALF DISTANCE BETWEEN MUMBAI AND DAPOLI AT ABOUT 05:30PM TODAY<11TH NOV 09>

THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE NORTH TO GETTING OVER AMBARNATH AND MISSING MUMBAI BY 131-135 KMS. IT WOULD HEAD NORTH AND MISS NASHIK.

THE EXPECTED FIGURES AT THE LANDFALL WOULD BE ABOUT WINDS OF 63MPH GUSTING TO 81MPH. AT 18.3 N AND 73E.THIS WOULD BE THE MAXIMUM AND THEN IT WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. 

ALERT FOR

 

RASAYANI,AMBARNATH FOR THE LANDFALL AT NOV 11 2009 AT 05:30PM

HIGH WINDS IN MUMBAI ABOUT 63MPH. 

HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI.

ALERT.... 

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

ALERT FOR CYCLONE LANDFALL AT GUJRAT,RAJASTHAN DURING NOV 11-12 2009

METD WEATHER

ALERT DEPT

FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM FOUR IN THE ARABIAN SEA

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL STORM GUSTING ABOUT 43MPH

THE TROPICAL STORM WAS FORMED LATE NIGHT. THE WARM TEMP, MOISTURE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA AND LOW WIND SHEAR ALL CAME TOGETHER AND FORMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EARLIER WERE EXPECTING FOR A CONVERSION INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONLY. 

THIS CENTER OF CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF GOA. THERE ARE MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONE AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THIS SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TAMIL NADU

CYCLONE-FOUR PATH

THE CYCLONES PATH IS NOW LOOKING CERTAIN. THE PREVIOUS MODEL SHOWED THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE EAST. BUT NOW IT IS LOOKING THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARDS GUJARAT.

AS THE EVENING FALLS DOWN AND NIGHT ARRIVES,THE MORE MOISTURE RELEASED FROM THE SEA WILL AGGREGATE THE CYCLONE MORE AND THE WINDS WOULD TURN PROBABLY TO 63MPH AND GUSTING TO 81MPH. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM WE CAN DEDUCE FROM THIS CYCLONE AFTER WHICH IT WOULD DISINTEGRATE.

                      NOVEMBER 11 2009

1]   THE CYCLONE WOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT 60KM AWAY FROM MAHUVA WHICH IS ON NH 8E ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 5:30 AM IST

2]  THEN IT WOULD GO TO NORTH AND WILL COME IN BHANDANA ON NH 8E JUST AFTER FEW HOURS.

3]  THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 19KMS AWAY FROM CITY OF BHAVNAGAR ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 07:00 AM IST

<   BHAVNAGAR WOULD HAVE A DISTANCE OF 19-21KMS AWAY FROM THIS CYCLONE AND THE SPEED OF WIND IN THIS CITY WOULD BE ABOUT 62KM/HR>

NOVEMBER 12 2009

THE CYCLONE WILL RECEIVE RESISTANCE FROM THE JET STREAMS SO IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL REACH PALI IN RAJASTHAN. 

THE DISTANCE WOULD BE 37KM FROM THE CITY AND THE WINDS WOULD BE ABOUT 55KM/HR

CYCLONE WOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW

THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE ON NOV 12 2009 AT 05:30PM IST

JODHPUR WOULD BE IN ITS WIND RADIUS.......

THEN IT WOULD MOVE TO NORTH AND WOULD BRING WINDS  ONLY

THERE WOULD BE RAINS TODAY AT NAGPUR AS WELL AS TOMORROW...

PLEASE MAIL THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR DEAR ONES LIVING IN RAJASTHAN,GUJARAT

NEXT UPDATE-

18:00 HRS IST ON NOV 10 2009

METD ALERT DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

NAGPUR

 

IDA LOSING STRENGTH. VERY CLOSE TO THE LANDFALL

TROPICAL STORM IDA HAS STARTED LOSING ITS STRENGTH

IDA,WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY DOMINATING BY CAT 2 FORMAT IS NOW A CAT-1 HURRICANE.

AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING, IDA HAS LOST ITS CENTER OF AXIS THAT IS THE "EYE"

This is a sign of losing its organized and symmetric structure. The winds of ida are now round 80mph with the central pressure of 993mb.

Its current location is 

25.8N   88.2W

NHC has issued hurricane watch for most of the southern coasts from 

PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

Ida would surely rise the water level of the sea near its landfall by 4-6 above the ground level...

already it is struggling with a lot of dry air present around it. After the landfall, a close upper level trough <low pressure> will damp cold air in it and the hurricane will disintegrate...

The moisture from Ida would be present in the landfall areas after it disappears as it had happened in the case of hurricane Fred.

Ida's journey has been exciting!!

METD 

Akshay

SNOW REPORTS FROM NORTH INDIA.

SNOWFALL IN UPPER-REACHES OF NORTH INDIA

A HUGE JET WHICH IS SET OVER NORTHERN INDIA HAS BROUGHT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR

THE REPORTS RECEIVED ARE FROM 

1]GULMARG,55 KMS AWAY FROM SRINAGAR

2]Farkian Gali, Sadna Top, Razdan pass, Tulail and Gurez along the Line of Control also experienced mild to heavy snowfall

3]MANALI AND ROHTANG PASS

4]DISTRICT HQ OF LAHAUL,SPITI -  KYELONG RECEIVED SNOWFALL AS WELL..

SNOW WAS ABOUT 3 INCHES

ALSO AREAS LIKE

5] Gumri and Matian near Zojilla Pass in Kargil and Khardungla in Leh were lashed by the snow. RECEIVED HEAVY SNOWFALL

6] Pahalgam belt Sheeshnag and Panjtarni 

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MORE IN THE NEXT few HOURS

AKSHAY DEORAS

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING SOUTH. WILL TURN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON

THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING IN THE SOUTH.


DEAR ALL,
IT IS CLOUDY NOW FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT OF THE GIANT
THUNDERSTORM WHICH HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF INDIA.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS CREATED FROM A THUNDERSTORM CELL FROM EAST ASIA.
IT CAME IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND AS THE EL-NINO IS STRENGTHENING MORE
MOISTURE IS BUILDING IN THIS STORM. THE SST ARE WARN ENOUGH WITH A
PATCH OF 32DEG CELCIUS WHICH IS GOOD FOR STRENGTHENING.
AT THE PRESENT MODELS, I CAN SURELY SAY IT WILL AGGREGATE..
IT IS GOING TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ATLEAST WHICH HAS GUSTS
ABOUT 35-39 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO NORTH IN NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
WHEN IT DOES SO.IT WILL START WEAKENING AND SOME COOL AIR FROM NORTH
WILL DAMP COOL AIR IN IT MAINLY OVER M.P

HOWEVER,IT MAY SWING TO NORTH INDIA WITH A THUNDERSTORM IF IT GAINS
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SURVIVE THE COOL WINDS AND JETS FROM NORTH-WEST




HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN  KERELA AND MAHARASHTRA.
PANAJI,GOA MIGHT FALL AT THE CENTER OF IT VERY SOON

NAGPUR WEATHER-

CLOUDY FOR TODAY<09 NOV>
INCREASE IN RAINS<10 NOV>
THUNDERSTORM <11 NOV>***************

*********  ---       SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION

STAY ALERT AND I WILL LET YOU KNOW IF THERE IS ANYTHING



METD ALERT DEPT
AKSHAY

IDA Strengthening

Hurricane Ida has strengthened

Hurricane ida has strengthened now. It is moving with cat 1 format. 

The hurricane has more potential of turning into cat 2 very soon.The SST on the way and the moisture will add more to the storm.

Infrared images shows  that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere.The wind shear is moderate and the Cape is less which is very favorable for intensification. 

It would intensify till sunday afternoon. Then a low pressure system moving from Western USA will dump cool air in it. It will disintensify and will also move in cool  SST. 

we will update later

TROPICAL STORM IDA

TROPICAL STORM IDA

 

Tropical Storm Ida has emerged in to the western Caribbean and has regained tropical storm status.

As of 7 AM EST, Ida was moving to the north at 8 mph into the western Caribbean with top winds of 45 mph. Ida is located about 280 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has now been issued for Grand Cayman Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen northward to San Felipe Mexico.

The government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the Province of Del Rio.

The system is expected to slowly move northward toward the Yucatan Channel and then into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as it strengthens back to a moderate to strong Tropical Storm.

Residents along the Yucatan need to monitor Ida closely for strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Beyond this weekend mariners and residents of the northeast Gulf of Mexico will need to monitor the progress of Ida as it heads slowly northward.

Ida will combine with a strong High Pressure area to the north to bring a strong pressure gradient that will result in gusty winds all across eastern Florida down into the Keys and Gulf of Mexico.

High Surf and Dangerous Rip Currents will persist for days and boaters and swimmers are urged to use extreme caution. If you are not a good swimmer you don't want to press your luck and take on the waves you could lose your life.

Stay tuned all weekend to The Weather Channel with frequent updates on Tropical Storm Ida with Tropical Expert Dr Steve Lyons and Weather.Com.

On average, about one tropical storm develops every two years during the month of November and every three years a hurricane develops. The southwest Caribbean is the most favored location for this to occur.

The last season with a named storm in November was 2008 when Paloma developed and impacted the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

METD LOOKING TO FORECAST TORNADOES IN SOUTH AMERICA THIS YEAR

TIme for some more action!

Well,My friend Reed Timmer might be heading to South America to
Argentina for catching some tornadoes. This time of the year, Areas of
Argentina receive tornadoes.
Outside USA,Argentina and Bangladesh have high tornadoes risks.
Even,METD is looking forward for Forecasting the springs of Argentina
to catch some tornadoes at least not personally but through a RADAR.
We'd Let you know soon whether we are going to forecast tornadoes in
argentina or not

Akshay Deoras

20 TORNADOES IN USA ON 29TH OCT 09

Tornado reports for USA for 29/10/09

The huge trough was a dangerous one. It created 20 tornadoes mainly in Louisiana,some parts of texas,Arkansas,one in Oklahoma

Now It is seeming that there are clear days ahead with high pressure systems. 

METD 

Akshay

Tornadoes possible from near I-35 in Oklahoma and Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and the lower-Mississippi Valley.

CHANCE OF TORNADO AND HAILS WITH HIGH WINDS IN LOUSIANA.

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND NEXT STAGE IS OF A SUPERCELL.

THIS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVLPOPE MAINLY OVER LOUSIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

 

SYNOPSIS.-

THE 850MB SYSTEM which we call as low level jet system says 50knot low level jets mainly over lousiana. The gulf of mexico is sending mositures in that area which is causing some instabilities in atmosphere. We call it as Cape and the value for cape is about 3000J/Kg. The Windshears are ample in lousiana which can help in development of horizonral spinning effect.As this part of time most of usa is cold enough and contais dryness in air, Southern areas which are near coast have chance of tornadoes.

We will surely have floods in southern side.

 

a few tornadoes will impact areas from near I-35 in Oklahoma and Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and the lower-Mississippi Valley.A warm front is present in this area which will cause tornadoes. SO people living are warned..........

 

There has been a massive snow storm in the Colorado and wyoming. We will update with the pictures soon....

 

 

METD

Akshay

HEAVY WINTER STORM IN COLORADO,WYOMING,THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE HUGE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGING IN THE COUNTRY

AS THE 300,500mb maps are showing  a large trough is digging in. It will dig through the western states like Colorado,Wyoming.

This trough will cause heavy precipitation in the form of snow.

The heaviest snow should be in Colorado and Wyoming, with portions of southeastern Wyoming expecting one to two feet of snow by Friday morning. Behind this system, another system will move into the Pacific Northwest late tonight into tomorrow and Friday bringing some locally heavy rain and mountain snow to Washington.

In the southern plains a lot of air packets will be present wioth changing shears<helicity>.

 

MODERATE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY

A LONG TROUGH WILL BE DIGING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER FROM THE
NORTH-WEST AND WILL DIG THROUGH THE STATES UTAH,COLORADO
LATER THIS TROUGH WILL COME TO THE SOUTHERN USA AND WILL BRING FLOODS
AND THUNDERSTORMS

TO BE COMPLETED
AKSHAY DEORAS

Chilly Nights.Some scope of Snowfall in Upper-north India

METD WEATHER STATION
WINTER FORECASTING DEPT.
NGP

TEMPERATURE OF NIGHT BREAKS THE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN OCT 2002.
LAST NIGHT;S TEMP. WAS ABOUT 13.2. THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY RECORDED 7
YEARS AGO IN THE YEAR 2002.

2] FORECASTING---

THE COOL WINDS ARE DOMINTATING. THIS WINDS ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN
10-15KM/HR. THEIR APPROACH IS FROM NORTH,NORTH EAST.
NAGPUR HAS A WINDCHILL MORE THAN TEMPERATURE-
WINDCHILL IS THE TEMPERATURE WHICH WE FEEL AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURE ON A
THERMOMETER IS MORE THAN WINDCHILL.

THURSDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER NORTH REGIONS LIKE
J&K SONAMARG, PARTS OF HIMACHAL PRADESH..

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY AND AS A RESULT OF IT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE AIR THAN NORMAL LEVEL AT THIS
TIME.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY<NIGHT TEMP.>
THE WINDS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ENABLE WEARING SWEATERS IN THE MORNING...

FORECASTING FOR TEMPERATURES
LOW FOR THIS WEEK POSSIBLY WOULD BE TONIGHT,27TH OCT-28TH OCT

EXPECTED- 12 C

for the week temp,would be around 15C AT NIGHT AND 32-34 C IN MORNING.......

TAKE CARE
METD WINTER DEPT

AKSHAY DEORAS

LUPIT SPARES PHILIPPINES. HEADING NORTH!!!

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT TO SPARE PHILIPPINES.

THERE HAS BEEN A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUPIT
LUPIT AS ON 20TH OCT 2009 WAS HEADING TO THE PHILIPPINES AND WAS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A LANDFALL TODAY.
THE CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LUPIT IS IN THE AREA OF COLD
WATER,DRY AIR SO IT IS LOSING ITS STRENGTH. THE INFRARED AND THERMAL
IMAGES SHOW THAT ITS EYE IS NO MORE THUS IT IS A MORE DISORGANIZED
STORM NOW.
HOWEVER IT IS SURELY BRINGING RAINS IN THE AREAS WHICH COME IN THE
PRECIPITATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 965mb.IT HAS GUSTS OF 64MPH AND THE
WINDS EQUIVALENT TO 63mph. IT IS AT 19.5 N,123.5E.
IT MAY BRING ABOUT 12 INCH RAINFALL PER DAY.........

WE SHALL LET YOU KNOW LATER
METD
AKSHAY

FINAL FEW ACTIVITIES IN THE OCEANS.HURRICANE RICK,THE SECOND STORNGEST HURRICANE RECORDED IN EAST PACIFIC

THE CYCLONE SEASON IS AT THE END FOR THIS YEAR.
CURRENTLY TWO SUPER HURRICANES ARE IN ACTION
HURRICANE RICK AND MAJOR TYPHOON LUPIT

HURRICANE RICK IS THE SECOND MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RICK GREW RAPIDLY YESTERDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OF 180MPH AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 906mb.THE PREVIOUS RECORDED WAS HURRICANE LINDA IN THE
YEAR 1997 WHICH HAD WINDS OF 185MPH AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902mb.

HURRICANE rick was the second one as it could get light wind shear,
high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric
moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and
most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical
cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of
2006, which also had 180 mph winds.Wind shear will gradually increase
and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick
approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before
landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category
2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at
landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model.

Currently rick is at 15.8N,108.3 W
Winds are of 170mph
Movement is WNW at 13mph.
Cat- 5
pressure at center- 914mb..

It will make a landfall at La Paz as Cat 2 hurricane on Wednesday.

2] SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT
Lupit is a super typhoon with wind of 24km/hr,,gusts of 296km/hr
Lat- 17.6N
long- 134 E
Movement- ENE at 11km/hr

Expected to make a landfall north of phillipines at tuguegaro city. as
cat 3 typhoon by thursday.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES-

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY