ALERT FOR CYCLONE LANDFALL AT GUJRAT,RAJASTHAN DURING NOV 11-12 2009

METD WEATHER

ALERT DEPT

FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM FOUR IN THE ARABIAN SEA

THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UNORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL STORM GUSTING ABOUT 43MPH

THE TROPICAL STORM WAS FORMED LATE NIGHT. THE WARM TEMP, MOISTURE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA AND LOW WIND SHEAR ALL CAME TOGETHER AND FORMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EARLIER WERE EXPECTING FOR A CONVERSION INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONLY. 

THIS CENTER OF CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF GOA. THERE ARE MANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONE AS WELL.

AHEAD OF THIS SOME NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TAMIL NADU

CYCLONE-FOUR PATH

THE CYCLONES PATH IS NOW LOOKING CERTAIN. THE PREVIOUS MODEL SHOWED THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE EAST. BUT NOW IT IS LOOKING THAT IT WOULD TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARDS GUJARAT.

AS THE EVENING FALLS DOWN AND NIGHT ARRIVES,THE MORE MOISTURE RELEASED FROM THE SEA WILL AGGREGATE THE CYCLONE MORE AND THE WINDS WOULD TURN PROBABLY TO 63MPH AND GUSTING TO 81MPH. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM WE CAN DEDUCE FROM THIS CYCLONE AFTER WHICH IT WOULD DISINTEGRATE.

                      NOVEMBER 11 2009

1]   THE CYCLONE WOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT 60KM AWAY FROM MAHUVA WHICH IS ON NH 8E ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 5:30 AM IST

2]  THEN IT WOULD GO TO NORTH AND WILL COME IN BHANDANA ON NH 8E JUST AFTER FEW HOURS.

3]  THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 19KMS AWAY FROM CITY OF BHAVNAGAR ON NOV 11 2009 AT ABOUT 07:00 AM IST

<   BHAVNAGAR WOULD HAVE A DISTANCE OF 19-21KMS AWAY FROM THIS CYCLONE AND THE SPEED OF WIND IN THIS CITY WOULD BE ABOUT 62KM/HR>

NOVEMBER 12 2009

THE CYCLONE WILL RECEIVE RESISTANCE FROM THE JET STREAMS SO IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL REACH PALI IN RAJASTHAN. 

THE DISTANCE WOULD BE 37KM FROM THE CITY AND THE WINDS WOULD BE ABOUT 55KM/HR

CYCLONE WOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW

THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE ON NOV 12 2009 AT 05:30PM IST

JODHPUR WOULD BE IN ITS WIND RADIUS.......

THEN IT WOULD MOVE TO NORTH AND WOULD BRING WINDS  ONLY

THERE WOULD BE RAINS TODAY AT NAGPUR AS WELL AS TOMORROW...

PLEASE MAIL THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR DEAR ONES LIVING IN RAJASTHAN,GUJARAT

NEXT UPDATE-

18:00 HRS IST ON NOV 10 2009

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