Announcing the 2012 Indian Monsoon Forecast on 16th May 2012

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

2012 MONSOON FORECAST FOR INDIA HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. CHECK METD WEATHER BLOG FOR THE DETAILS 

Continuing the tradition of issuing the monsoon forecast for India since 2009 this year the fourth edition of IndiMO ( Indian Monsoon) is expected in Mid May. The Part I of the forecast aka IndiMO I will be issued on

Wednesday,16th May 2012 at 0300PM GST (Gulf Standard Time) or 0430PM IST i.e 1100hrs GMT.

The part I will have two versions. The first version will be an analysis of the conditions and technical matter unlike the second edition which will be a public version. A public version has the text in simplified form and doesnt contain much technical terms so that the people can understand. The first part will give an idea how the monsoon will behave this year and some estimates for the amount

Shortly after the IndiMO I, the second edition or IndiMO II will be issued on

Friday,25th May 2012.. The timings shall be announced around 23rd May 2012.. The second edition will have only one version i.e public since it will describe the quantum estimates of the rainfall and arrival dates..

Where to see the forecast??
From 11th May onwards, a graphic image displaying "2012 Monsoon Forecast expected soon" will be put on the blog. When the forecast will be available, people can visit this blog (metdweather.blogspot.com) and see the forecast on the front page and on a new page ( titled as 2012 Monsoon Forecast). The new page will be replacing the present 2012 Summer Forecast page..

People who are connected with METD WEATHER can get a direct link on facebook and those who have suscribed us will be mailed directly.

The forecast will be available on scribd also..

Stay tuned for the forecast!!!

Tropical Cyclone/Depression Watch CANCELLED for East,South-East Coast of India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster



*** TROPICAL CYCLONE/DEPRESSION WATCH CANCELLED***
*** AS OF 06Z,21ST APRIL 2012 CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXSIST FOR THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

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TWIN HIGH RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY,ADDITIONAL THREAT TODAY

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

*** SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME TORNADOES TODAY ( FRIDAY) ACROSS LOWER OKLAHOMA***

*** EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN CENTRAL US****

*** LIKELY HOOD OF LONG TRACK DANGEROUS TORNADOES****

*** MOST SEVERE WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE AT LATE EVENING INTO NIGHT HOURS***

***NIGHT-TIME TORNADOES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR CENTRAL USA***

The Large Positively tilted trough presently over California is all set to produce A HISTORIC TORNADO OUTBREAK ON SATURDAY IN CENTRAL USA. As was expected, Storm Prediction Center has UPGRADED the Moderate Risk to a High Risk for Saturday

THE HIGH RISK AREA IS FROM SALINA,KS TO OKLAHOMA CITY,OK .

WEATHER FORECASTS- 

FRIDAY- 

Update as of 1830z GMT

Tornado Watch issued for SW OK across NW Texas- 

""" 

  

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          OKLAHOMA
          A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
   PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WICHITA FALLS
   TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK AS THE CAP
   HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
   2000-2500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
   SUBTLE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP TOWARD NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AS IT RETREATS NWWD
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT IN THE
   LOWEST 6 KM WILL FAVOR FORMATION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN
   INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WITH
   TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A SUBSEQUENT
   INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.

Thunderstorms are expected to fire today in Oklahoma area East of the dryline. Convective inhibition or CIN shall prevent storms from firing till late afternoon period. With sufficient day time heat, the CAP will break and storms will fire in the presence of Moderately Destabilized atmosphere of CAPE values over 2000J/Kg across Oklahoma and SFC Dewpoint over 70F for convection. Supported by Steep Lapse rates from late afternoon into evening and the best lifted indices of -7 at Oklahoma, developing storms shall strengthen and become capable of producing large size hails into the afternoon hours. Lack of supporting wind shear for afternoon hours coupled with lesser intensified LLJ shall prevent tornadoes developing till early evening portion. 

After the evening initiates, presence of improvised shears and LLJ for moisture shall elevate the potentials for tornadoes across SW Oklahoma,Central OK,SW Texas Oklahoma Border ( around Wichita Falls,). The Hodographs are indicating extremely good curvatures and in agreement with tornadoes especially close to SW OK..

*** SINCE MOST OF THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED IN NIGHT PERIOD WITH STORM INITIATING AROUND 19Z-20Z WITH SUPERCELLS PEOPLE MUST PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AS NIGHT TIME TORNADOES ARE VERY DANGEROUS ***

*** SOUTH WEST OK,CENTRAL OK AND NW TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER I.E CLOSE TO WICHITA FALLS,TX SHALL PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION FOR TORNADOES AT NIGHT PERIOD ***

----------------------

HIGH RISK: SATURDAY 

*** LIFE THREATENING SITUATION EXPECTED***

*** TWIN HIGH RISK AREAS***

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB AND FAR WRN IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL
   OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK INTO NEB AND IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD INTO SRN MN AND
   WRN IL...

As the positive tilted trough digs further, the severe weather threat will shift Eastwards and become widespread on Saturday. 

The Surface analysis depicts intensifying surface low to settle over KS-NE border on Saturday. The Surface Low shall be a driving factor for the low level jets and the moisture incursion from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Above- Valid 0000z,Sun SFC analysis shows the L at NW KS

As the upper air jet surges further, it shall drive a pocket of cool air from West Central US into the plains which eventually will collide with the warm moist air from the south creating instability over a wedge area for convection. Morning period appears to have a capped environment across the warm sector east of the dryline. With enough day time heat after some showers at places like Oklahoma, capping shall break into afternoon as per the GFS and expect storm initiation robustly across western to central OK in CAPE over 2000J/Kg and upto 2000 J/Kg across Eastern Nebraska as per the GFS.. 

Moisture shall be abundant across the warm sector all due to the LLJ which maintains the 40-50kt strength till around 00z,GMT (15th April) and exploding to over 60kt after 03z thus adding to more severe weather threat! 

Initially,the wind shears shall be limited across OK-KS area and pretty favorable for areas such as NE-IA and hence the primary tornado threat shall apply for Eastern NE and Western IA.. With the increase period, shears will also improve and lack of convergence across OK-KS shall produce discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes particularly stronger at night period... Threat of Large hails persists as well 

The Hodographs are much impressive for the NE-IA area than OK-KS which may imply stronger tornado likelyhood there... However the SPC has issued a "RARE TWIN HIGH RISK AREA" 

KANSAS-OKLAHOMA HIGH RISK COVERS CITIES FROM SALINA,KS TO OKC,OK AND NE-IA HIGH RISK COVERS MAJOR CITIES LIKE NORFOLK,OMAHA,LINCOLN ( NE)

THIS IS GOING TO BE A HISTORIC TORNADO OUTBREAK***

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!

Severe Weather expected in Central US,Moderate Risk Saturday

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Multiple rounds of severe weather are happening in the US prominently Central parts. The above 300mb GFS 09z shows exiting trough from East Central US. The trough had provided some thunderstorms in recent at Central parts. The plot also shows the approaching short wave trough currently over the Western US. The shortwave trough is expected to dig in the central US by Friday evening hours into Saturday with large amplified flow exceeding 120kt.

THURSDAY-

The pressure gradient over Gulf of Mexico and Central US  is forcing the winds to carry moisture inwards. The RUC 05hr shows dewpoint over 65F across Western Oklahoma,Western Kansas and Western parts of Texas. As the day time heat coupled with instability adds up Severe Thunderstorms shall fire East of the dryline in Texas,Oklahoma and stretching upto Kansas. During the afternoon period, large hails shall be likely across Western Kansas and Western Oklahoma. By evening hours, ground helicity will be favored over 200-300 units across a region particularly Eastern Texas Panhandle-Western,North-Western Oklahoma where the Hodographs are indicating nice curvatures favoring for tornadoes. Its very likely that isolated supercells will form and shall be capable to produce tornado*** NIGHT TIME TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AFTER 21Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OK,WEST OK,EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS******

FRIDAY

The Upper level pattern combined with surface level analysis indicates the second round of severe weather across the same area stretching more North East wards.

The Instability shall be Moderate i.e over 3000 J/Kg across Southern,Central Oklahoma prominently with very good lifting depicted by LI over -7 to -8 in southern and central OK. However the Wind shears shall be a bit limited as per the NAM models. The 0-1km Hel and EHI shows weak values supporting not very strong tornadoes. However the models keep changing and hence its mandatory to keep an eye on the weather

***MODERATE RISK : SATURDAY***

Possible HIGH RISK?

With more Eastward progression of the trough, the energy required for strong weather avails on Saturday. 

The Warm moist sector shall be a widespread as the SFC low over Western Kansas by 14/12z amplifies the LLJ stretching over 60kt at peak and causing a Robust incursion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Texas,Oklahoma,Kansas particularly causing elevated dewpoint over 70F favoring for strong convection. The best lifted indices shall be across a region stretching from North Central TX to SRN,Cent OK amidst CAPE values over 2000J/Kg. 

Supercells are likely in the areas as being depicted by the GFS Bulk Shear over 50kt. Not much of Severe Weather is expected by mid or late afternoon as the trough will take some time before it reaches the concerned area. Also the developing wind shear shall blast in a period stretching from late afternoon into night hours across the region. Considering the favored combination of instability and powered by steep lapse rates and overall curvatures in the Hodograph, the mentioned Moderate Risk AREA will witness strong thunderstorms and some capable of producing tornadoes and hails prominently with strong winds and localized flooding due to heavy rains. 

Considering the status of LLJ, it might not be wrong to see if the MDT area or slightly East of it is upgraded to High Risk area till Saturday. 

So Stay TUNED FOR UPDATES

TSUNAMI WATCH CANCELLED ACROSS ALL 28 NATIONS!

**** TSUNAMI WATCH LIFTED FROM ALL THE AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN***

**** UNCERTAINTY EXSIST WHETHER THERE WAS A TSUNAMI IN THAILAND ****

**** MULTIPLE LOW INTENSITY AFTERSHOCKS REPORTED AT OFFSHORE WEST COAST OF NORTH SUMATRA***

AKG Seismology Team-

A Major Sigh of Relief!! The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has lifted the TSUNAMI WATCH from all the areas where it was issued- 

As per the datas from PTWC, A maximum recorded Tsunami height was 3.5ft at Meulaboh,Indonesia. Here is the report- 

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 MALE MV               4.2N  73.5E  1223Z   0.19M /  0.6FT  06MIN
 GAN MV                0.7S  73.2E  1212Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  48MIN
 HANIMAADHOO MV        6.8N  73.2E  1235Z   0.25M /  0.8FT  06MIN
 PADANG ID             1.0S 100.4E  1208Z   0.09M /  0.3FT  34MIN
 KO TAPHAO NOI TH      7.8N  98.4E  1143Z   0.05M /  0.2FT  06MIN
 ENGGANO ID            5.3S 102.3E  1104Z   0.12M /  0.4FT  04MIN
 TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1129Z   0.06M /  0.2FT  16MIN
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1044Z   0.22M /  0.7FT  14MIN
 COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

However as was mentioned by AKG, Tsunami wave was generated and it reached places like Maldives,Thailand,Australia,Sri Lanka parts ( shown in PINK) in above region in additions to Indonesia.

However at these areas excluding Indonesia region not more than 1 feet of Tsunami wave was reported. The maximum was 1.06M at Meulaboh,Indonesia for 12min at 1007hrs UTC

Disaster preparedness was in full swing across 28 nations including India where people where forced to evacuate areas in Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Its obvious that a significant Tsunami was generated but location remains uncertain!

As of now, Multiple aftershocks have been reported around the epicenter region as shown by the below image

Above- Each Square represents an Earthquake ( or aftershock) The two BIG BLUE SQUARES are the first earthquake (8.6M) and the aftershock of 8.2M... 

THE BIG QUESTION- WHY THERE WAS NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI??

AKG's Earthquake Expert Aluth Fian informed that this Earthquake was caused due to a transform fault which rarely generate tsunami, because tsunami is mainly resulted from height change dz -> connection to wave equation. 

Thus the plates had more horizontal movement than vertical and hence NO SIGNIFICANT Tsunami was generated. If it hadn't been the Transform Fault responsible then a significant Tsunami would had generated and quite similar to 26th Dec 2004 Event.. 

Aluth Fian shall update on the science behind this soon!

POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS THE REGION

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

*** POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA***

*** USGC REPORTS 8.2M***

A STRONG AFTERSHOCK HAS BEEN REPORTED AT 0.773°N, 92.452°E 

AT 10:43:09 UTC

AS OF NOW, TSUNAMI IS HEADING TOWARDS THE THAILAND COAST

*************************************************************************************************************************************

UPDATED INFORMATION FROM PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS INDICATING A STRONGER TSUNAMI WAVE THAN THE PREVIOUS HITING INDONESIA COAST

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1054Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

... A MAJOR AFTERSHOCK OCCURRED AT 11:43Z WITH MAGNITUDE 8.3 ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / AUSTRALIA / SRI LANKA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / OMAN / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA /
 CROZET ISLANDS / BANGLADESH / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  0952Z   0.15M /  0.5FT  08MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  0956Z   0.31M /  1.0FT  08MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.