Severe Weather expected in Central US,Moderate Risk Saturday

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Multiple rounds of severe weather are happening in the US prominently Central parts. The above 300mb GFS 09z shows exiting trough from East Central US. The trough had provided some thunderstorms in recent at Central parts. The plot also shows the approaching short wave trough currently over the Western US. The shortwave trough is expected to dig in the central US by Friday evening hours into Saturday with large amplified flow exceeding 120kt.

THURSDAY-

The pressure gradient over Gulf of Mexico and Central US  is forcing the winds to carry moisture inwards. The RUC 05hr shows dewpoint over 65F across Western Oklahoma,Western Kansas and Western parts of Texas. As the day time heat coupled with instability adds up Severe Thunderstorms shall fire East of the dryline in Texas,Oklahoma and stretching upto Kansas. During the afternoon period, large hails shall be likely across Western Kansas and Western Oklahoma. By evening hours, ground helicity will be favored over 200-300 units across a region particularly Eastern Texas Panhandle-Western,North-Western Oklahoma where the Hodographs are indicating nice curvatures favoring for tornadoes. Its very likely that isolated supercells will form and shall be capable to produce tornado*** NIGHT TIME TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AFTER 21Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OK,WEST OK,EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS******

FRIDAY

The Upper level pattern combined with surface level analysis indicates the second round of severe weather across the same area stretching more North East wards.

The Instability shall be Moderate i.e over 3000 J/Kg across Southern,Central Oklahoma prominently with very good lifting depicted by LI over -7 to -8 in southern and central OK. However the Wind shears shall be a bit limited as per the NAM models. The 0-1km Hel and EHI shows weak values supporting not very strong tornadoes. However the models keep changing and hence its mandatory to keep an eye on the weather

***MODERATE RISK : SATURDAY***

Possible HIGH RISK?

With more Eastward progression of the trough, the energy required for strong weather avails on Saturday. 

The Warm moist sector shall be a widespread as the SFC low over Western Kansas by 14/12z amplifies the LLJ stretching over 60kt at peak and causing a Robust incursion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Texas,Oklahoma,Kansas particularly causing elevated dewpoint over 70F favoring for strong convection. The best lifted indices shall be across a region stretching from North Central TX to SRN,Cent OK amidst CAPE values over 2000J/Kg. 

Supercells are likely in the areas as being depicted by the GFS Bulk Shear over 50kt. Not much of Severe Weather is expected by mid or late afternoon as the trough will take some time before it reaches the concerned area. Also the developing wind shear shall blast in a period stretching from late afternoon into night hours across the region. Considering the favored combination of instability and powered by steep lapse rates and overall curvatures in the Hodograph, the mentioned Moderate Risk AREA will witness strong thunderstorms and some capable of producing tornadoes and hails prominently with strong winds and localized flooding due to heavy rains. 

Considering the status of LLJ, it might not be wrong to see if the MDT area or slightly East of it is upgraded to High Risk area till Saturday. 

So Stay TUNED FOR UPDATES

Round of Severe Weather on Monday,Tuesday,Wednesday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across Much of Arkansas and some areas in MO on Monday

The mid level shortwave trough currently digging in from pacific is expected to bring severe weather into the plains Monday as the embeded jet streaks at the nose of upper level jet

Favored by the eastward progression of the dryline and the SFC low in Western to Central Oklahoma, severe storms shall fire around Central OK in the perfectly unstable warm sector where CAPE values are over 2000J/Kg and LI over -7

Moisture shall not be a problem from this setup as SFC dewpoints are over 60F indicating nice moisture

As the storms brace eastwards into SW Ok and Western Arkansas, presence of a good wind shear shall support developments of supercells capable of producing large hails and few tornadoes.

Hodographs indicate less curvatures across SW Oklahoma so I w'd probably not think of this location for tornadoes

As the Low level jets intensity over 50kt in Arkansas and favored by steep lapse rate in evening hours, Threat for Tornadoes builds up.

What it seems right now, areas situated West and NW of Little Rock shall get to see some tornadoes at night time especially around Hot Spring,AR

People must watch out for this region.

Tue

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z     

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS 

FAR NORTHEAST    TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN

 ARKANSAS...WESTERN    TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST 

MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

As the trough digs in, round of severe weather can be expected into many areas

Wed- In Alabama and Georgia

Severe Storms in Southern US on Monday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

"...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN

   TN...MS...FAR SE AR...NW AL AND A SMALL PART OF SW KY...

.THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO    MID-MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL TO SRN    APPALACHIAN MTNS...  "
Storm Prediction Center,
Norman,OK

The ongoing thunderstorms will advance eastwards trailing behind the cold front into the Southern plains .

The Positive tilted trough right now right now in Rockies will eject into the plains early morning on Monday and will bring a deal of severe weather.

The advancing cold front with the low level jets peaking 70kt! shall rapidly pull moisture from the gulf of mexico into the plains leading to dewpoint upto 70F for morning period in Arkansas,Louisiana.

Storms are expected to fire in the morning period as the cap breaks away quickly. Convection shall trigger in Eastern OK,Louisiana,AR morning period in the feeble destabilized atmosphere of MLCAPE upto 1000J/Kg for the morning hours.

As day time ( MORNING) heat contributes in instability with steep lapse rates later afternoon, storms will go severe in the squall line contributing for a threat of strong winds,hails prominently towards Eastern AR,LA.

Effect Wind shears shall be in place during the late morning to afternoon period across Mississippi and prominently in the Western TN valley where there is a robust verring wind profile in the lower atmosphere/Hel ( 0-1km), Discrete supercells likely w'd form with the main outflow boundary of the squall line capable of producing tornadoes.

Moisture in the TN state remains a question in the warm sector including parts of MS in early morning period to early afternoon but the evolution of the Mid level trough as neutral tilt and the arrangement of the LLJ, Rapid moisture incursion just at afternoon shall help convection particularly across Cent,West TN and Cent to NRN MS

The Lifted Index however w'd be strong in the coastal parts of LA,MS,AL as the CAPE reaches to above 2000J/Kg and higher 70F dewpoint. However lack of Shears will limit tornado probability there.

The main deal for now on Monday morning period looks to be SE ARKANSAS - SOMEWHERE AROUND GREENVILLE,MS

THE MAIN TARGET SHIFTS FOR AFTERNOON IN Mississippi

Tupelo,MS to Jackson TN

SPC UPGRADES A 5% TORNADO RISK HERE AND THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALSO LIES HERE

** Increased threat likely during evening hours for Northern Alabama areas and Central to Eastern TN when the LLJ 70kt peaks up!

** Threat for Isolated tornado also likely in the coastal MS,AL,

Rest-

Storms along the cold front to impact from Ohio to MS valley advancing East

Strong Tornadoes likely in USA

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Severe Thunderstorms are expected to errupt in the warm sector with upper 70F Dewpoints in the Gulf States.

The Convection belt looks in an area extending from SE Texas,into Louisiana and prominently in Mississippi,Alabama

Thunderstorms are expected to build in the MLCAPE from 1000-upper 2000J/KG and strong lifting mechanism indicated by Lift Index upto -8 in Louisiana.

Enhanced Convection shall appear in Louisiana where CAPE values favor for Deep Layer Convection during the mid afternoon period with the breaking of CAP.

As the surface low progresses eastwards with the arrival of cold front in Mississippi and some 40kt LLJ in the presence of Nice Low level curvatures in Hodograph ( Rich Shears)

Tornado threat looks strong for Central to Eastern,NE Mississippi and Central Alabama.

Looking at the models, it seems that my tornado target lies Eastern Mississippi corridor AND EXTENDING IT INTO WESTERN ALABAMA DURING EVENING HOURS OR SO.

** STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAILS ARE EXPECTED IN AL,MS