High Risk of Severe Storms across extreme southern Indiana,Central Kentucky and North Central TN!!!

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

CONCERNING- VERY MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED WITH LIFE THREATENING SITUATION

AREAS AFFECTED-
KENTUCKY,NORTHERN TN,EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA,OHIO,NORTH EAST MISSISSIPPI,NORTHERN ALABAMA AND LESS IN NORTH WESTERN GEORGIA

SYNOPSIS
AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DAY FORECAST, A MAJOR WEATHER EVENT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN FOR MUCH OF THE GULF STATES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED TODAYS RISK TO A MAJOR ONE CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PRESENT IN THE REGION.

DANGEROUS SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK VIOLENT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL SHALL BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH WIND DAMAGE FROM SQUALL LINE SETUP

FOLLOW
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ON RADIO AND KEEP THE DISASTER PLAN READY

spc.noaa.gov

Severe Weather threat across East Central states of USA on Friday!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning: Moderate Risk of Severe Storms across East Central States of USA

Areas under Moderate Risk ( Storm Prediction Center); Mississippi,Alabama,Tennessee,Kentucky,Kentucky,Indiana,Ohio

Synopsis-

A classic upper level jet hovering across the Western USA with upper air jet over 120kt peak will amplify and eject into the plains from late tonight into tomorrow ( Friday) igniting a round of severe weather for much of the area beginning from tonight in Mid Mississippi region where non severe storms are expected. 

A broad surface low will develop across Mid Arkansas region into Missouri region on Friday morning period which will be a driving force for this weather pattern. The surface low is expected to deepen remarkably into the afternoon,evening hours on Friday even reaching to a powerful 992mb ! moving towards the Great Lakes area..

At the surface,a surface low level jet (LLJ) will start amplifying from Friday early morning bringing the required moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As the incursion of moisture happens the dew points will soar from 60F-70F reaching peak in Souther states mostly in Mississippi and Alabama. The much of the breakdown will happen when a destabilized atmosphere of MLCAPE reaching unto 2000J/Kg. However if the NAM model is to be believed, there will be much more CAPE than expected reaching over 2000J/Kg unto 3000J/Kg in Central Tennessee and Southern and Central Kentucky

. Any storm that builds up in the region during afternoon will instantly go convective due to such high CAPE and favored upper air winds. The moisture also as per NAM seems to be in 70F ( Dewpoint) across Tennessee,Southern,Central Kentucky,North Eastern Mississippi,Northern and NW Alabama favoring for robust convection in the region!!

There is an argument regarding the Helicity at the ground level ( 0-1km). Earlier NAM models indicate that 200 m2 /s^ are expected in Mississippi region,Northern Tennessee at 18UTC,Friday but +3hrs indicate Helicity to be dominant across Central Tennessee and Kentucky,Southern Indiana,Southern Ohio where the ground EHI index of 4.0 across Central Kentucky,2-3 across Tennessee 

WHERE THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE IN GREATER AMOUNT FOR REGIONS STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY AND LOWER INDIANA AND OHIO

METD WEATHER ESTIMATES DANGEROUS TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY ESPECIALLY AROUND PROMINENT CITIES LIKE NASHVILLE,TN AND LOUISVILLE. 

THREAT IS FOR TORNADO,LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT AND FOLLOW THE SITUATION 

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

Summer Forecast 2012 for India to be issued on 18th Feb 2012

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The countdown for the official summer forecast of METD WEATHER has begun.The forecast will be issued on Sunday,18th March 2012 late afternoon hours (IST).
The forecast will be issued for the entire nation including Nagpur for the month
March end-April-May. The driving force behind the forecast will be state of oscillation at the eq.central pacific (ENSO) which is fading away now from the La Nina which played a major role in 2010,2011 weather across the Nation. The current parameters are indicating that the neutral conditions shall appear from this spring.However unless verified it will be too early to speak about it.

The weather forecast will be issued on this blog,facebook page of METD Weather and scribd page.
As METD WEATHER has entered the print media recently in Nagpur,the weather forecast ( Along with occasional) updates will be issued in Tarun Bharat newspaper (Marathi language),Lokmat ( Marathi Language) and in The Hitavada ( English) after some days ( 2 or 3)
After a big gap,the weather forecasts also will begin again for the exciting Tornado Alley from March itself.The season has already began and is progressing smoothly so far.

Further, a classic setup is coming together in the Southern plains from Tuesday into Wednesday.Due to time limitations,I cant write much but stay tuned with

spc.noaa.gov to monitor the conditions...

Rains may spoil Kite festival in North India as the Western Disturbance arrives

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE UPCOMING WESTERN DISTURBANCE IS ALL SET TO BRING HEAVY SNOW,RAINS IN J&K,HIMACHAL PRADESH,HIGHER REACHES OF UTTARANCHAL FROM LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING TILL 17TH JAN 2012

METD WEATHER HAS ISSUED A PDS AND MARK 5 ALERT FOR MANY AREAS
CHECK THIS LINK FOR LATEST INFO
www.facebook.com/deorasakshay

The WD is also going to bring Overcast skies and rainfall for North India plains including lower reaches of J&K,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal,Punjab,Haryana,New Delhi.Thunderstorms are also expected in the plains.
much of the activity will take place on Sunday i.e 15th Jan - The Day of Kite flying. People may need to bring their kites indoor due to rain fury spoiling the event.
Regarding amount of rainfall please see our facebook page

Another Major Western Disturbance all set to impact North India

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Not less than a week ago, a historic western disturbance hit North India leading to a complete standstill of transportation,sudden cold and many other worrying factors for the people.
The GFS forecasts are in a state of high agreement about another Western Disturbance in the region from 14th Jan 2012 onwards

This Western Disturbance shall bring Heavy Snowfall in many areas across Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh!

The areas in the vicinity of Srinagar i.e Gulmarg,Sonamarg,Pahalgam shall see another major snowfall which may even stress upto Vaishnodevi and other areas.
The Kargil Valley,Suru Valley,Ladakh,Zoji La shall also get snowfall
Srinagar also will see Snowfall !


In Himachal Pradesh, Heavy Snowfall is expected in the areas like Shimla and vicinity,Lahaul Spiti,Manali and vicinity,Higher Passes

Considering the presence of cooler atmosphere, areas of Punjab like Pathankot where it did snow may even get another snowfall ( light) which will depend on the type of the system and its intensity.

The plains of Punjab,Haryana,J&K,Himachal Pradesh,Uttaranchal will get Rainfall and Isolated Thunderstorm also followed by Fog.

DURATION-


The Western Disturbance shall reach by 14th Jan 2012 where Snowfall is expected ( Light) in Central J&K.
On 15th Jan i.e Sunday the W.D will precipitate Snow and Rain in the areas mentioned above which will relax by 16th Jan 2012 late period


CONSEQUENCES- 


* THE W.D IS ANOTHER MAJOR ONE *


* VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL TOWARDS WEST J&K,HIMACHAL PRADESH WHICH INCLUDES
SRINAGAR AND VICINITY PROMINENTLY


* TOTAL DISRUPTION OF AIR SCHEDULE,ROAD WAYS ON OR AFTER 15TH JAN 2012 I.E SUNDAY ESP THE JAMMU-SRINAGAR HIGHWAY


* MIN TEMP SHALL DROP MORE AFTER THE WD*


*** PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THE EVENT ***


*** PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS FROM FOG IN NORTH INDIA PLAINS***

Photos of Snowfall event from Chail,Himachal Pradesh

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Major Western Disturbance of the year has brought massive snowfall including areas around Pathankot in Punjab. I have limited time to update on the accumulations and hope the things to improve from this May

Meanwhile, another MAJOR Western Disturbance is all set to arrive and cause snowfall again in the affected areas from 15th Jan 2012 onwards ( Detailed report later)

Suni Dheeman of Jhaja village near Chail,Himachal Pradesh sent us beautiful photos after the snowfall event there!

Have a look!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

First Major Western Disturbance to hit North India

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The First Major western disturbance of the season is all set to bring POSSIBLY THE FIRST SNOWFALL FOR SRINAGAR

The Western Disturbance will bring Snowfall in higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh till 7th Jan 2012

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras