Monday, December 26, 2011

Tropical Storm BOB D1 (Thane) surging towards Chennai

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The massive Tropical Storm BOB D1 ( IMD Designation - TS Thane) is heading towards Chennai rapidly. The weather models indicate that the storm is continuing its fight against the Moderately Sheared Environment of V Shear of 15kt which has started affecting the symmetry and the intensity of the system. As of 0900AM IST today, the system has cloud top temp ( PEAK) of -60C and is situated in the sea having SST 28C. 

Multispectral Satellite imagery confirms the weakening of the system and JTWC designates as of today morning ( 9am IST) that system is 420NM East of Chennai. 

Considering the other parameters, it does appear that lower convergence of 20kt in presence of rich moisture has continued to fuel the system due to favored upper air poleward outflow. 

Forecast-
It does appear to me that the system HAS REACHED A MID OF PEAK INTENSIFICATION PROCESS today with peak winds of 45kt right now as of 40kt at past 21 hours. Presence of cooler SST,less moist environment ahead shall begin the WEAKENING PROCESS .
IMD and other weather bloggers are expecting the system to reach a Severe Cyclonic Storm status or Cat 1 which I believe will not happen. 

BOB D1 shall weaken from around tonight and reach around Chennai on 29th Dec evening to night hours as a Tropical Depression or a marginal Tropical Storm based on Saffir Simspon Scale. 

People of Chennai must watch out from the system especially from Moderate Rains and Winds and Rough seas for coastal areas !


Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
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Saturday, December 24, 2011

Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Update-1

Bay Of Bengal Low Pressure Update-1
Designation - BOB D1
Valid +24hrs from 1800GMT

An area of convection has formed between 5N-15N and 82E-92E. The Satellite imagery clearly depicts exposed low level circulation center, associated cloud tops over -70C and Spiral symmetry of the system. Model analysis indicates that the system has ROBUST potential for intensification given the excellent poleward outflow ( Upper air) of 20kt, persisting low level convergence ( increasing) of 15kt and negligible wind shears to affect! The system is being fed by the 29C Sea Surface Temp and plenty of moisture in the region. The attached 850mb vorticity indicates favorable lifting mechanism for the intensification in overall ..

Considering the given parameters,BOB D1 will continue movement NW in the Bay of Bengal reaching offshore Southern India around 26-27.If the system goes as expected then it shall produce heavy rains accompanied by strong winds,storm surge offshore Tamil Nadu,Karnataka.

The system shall be a Tropical Depression at peak from its present forecast!

II- Weather in Central India may take a turn?
If the system goes on the track as expected, then it shall pump moisture at mid and low levels in Central,Eastern India towards the 30th Dec and shall increase cloud cover and precipitation probabilities in the region.
It shall be monitored separately!


Akshay Deoras

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Expected weather forecast for Lunar Eclipse 10th Dec 2011

METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Our parent blog,AKG is celebrating the Lunar Week which is a week prior to the upcoming Grand event of Total Lunar Eclipse of 10th Dec 2011 i.e on coming Saturday
Everyone knows that this is the second and the final total lunar eclipse of this year with the first one already happened on 15th June where due to the pre-monsoon phase the weather didn't permit a good view at majority areas of India. However as the winter is now in full swing, its an obvious fact that with no active low pressure systems to influence, much of India is going to get a CLEAR view of the event. 
Below is a list of 32 cities of India for which the weather forecast is calculated. 

It appears that around 88% of the nation will get good weather for the eclipse 


Akshay Deoras

---------------
Expected weather forecast of evening 10th Dec 2011 @ 5PM-11PM

Cloud Cover( In percent)             Terminology
0                                                            CLEAR
1-20                                                      LIGHT
21-50                                                   MODERATE
51-75                                                   HEAVY
76-100                                                OVERCAST

Alphabetical order-
1 ] Agartala - Cloud Cover shall be MODERATE but occasional views of Eclipse will be possible. 
2] Agra- CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NO CLOUD COVER
3] Ahmedabad- CLEAR 
4] Aizawl- CLEAR
5] Allahabad- CLEAR
6] AMBALA - CLEAR
7] AMRITSAR- CLEAR
8] Bangalore- MODERATE ( Weather will depend on day time heat and chances of thunderstorms) 
9] Bhopal - LIGHT
10] Bhubaneshwar - LIGHT
11] Chandigarh - LIGHT to CLEAR
12] Chennai - MODERATE ( HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAY LEAD TO CLOUD COVER) 
13] New Delhi- CLEAR
14] Gandhinagar- CLEAR
15] Gangtok - HEAVY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
16] Guwahati - LIGHT
17] Jammu - CLEAR
18] KARNAL- CLEAR
19] Kolkata- CLEAR
20] LEH- CLEAR TO LIGHT CLOUD
21] LUCKNOW- CLEAR
22] LUDHIANA- CLEAR
23] MUMBAI- CLEAR
24] NAGPUR- CLEAR
25] PATNA- LIGHT
26] RAJKOT- CLEAR
27] SRINAGAR- CLEAR
28] SURAT- CLEAR
29] TRIVANDRUM- LIGHT
30] Vishakhapatanam- LIGHT
31] PUNE- CLEAR
32] HYDERABAD- CLEAR

Thus four areas and nearby i.e Agartala and some SEVEN SISTER STATES AREA,Bangalore,Chennai and Gangtok and nearby areas have some possible cloud cover influence. The forecast is preliminary and is subjected to change as per the situation 

In all the other areas will get good weather for eclipse . 

METD WEATHER



Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
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Friday, December 2, 2011

"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"



A Week prior to the 10th Dec 2011 Total Lunar Eclipse, AKG is beginning the Lunar Week from Sat ( 03rd Dec) to 10th Dec 2011. 
The Lunar Week's inaugural article is here.I am proud to present this article titled as "Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday" 

The article focuses on explaining the science of Lunar Eclipse through Frequently Asked Questions I have encountered with written in a simple language to enable the readers to understand it. Also given below are the datas from Eclipse NASA giving insight about the event on 10th Dec 2011 when a Total Lunar Eclipse will be visible. 
The Eclipse is important for me and my hometown as the next eclipse ( Total Lunar) will be visible nearly after 6 years !!! 


So sit back and enjoy and wish you a Happy Lunar Week.

AND!!
FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE: MARK THE DATE --- Sat,10th Dec 2011

Akshay Deoras
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"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"
By Akshay Deoras


The coming Saturday,10th Dec  is going to be a wonderful evening for all the astro lovers! There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on the evening of Saturday which will be the second one of the year ( After 15th June 2011) when the first total lunar eclipse was seen. 
However, the weather didn't allow any view of the eclipse from Nagpur. 

The Eclipse is going to be visible completely  in East Asia,Australia,New Zealand.In India the moon will rise before the beginning of penumbral eclipse in North East states,East central region,Eastern Jammu and Kashmir. For central India including Nagpur,and the remaining regions the moon will rise in the penumbral eclipse. Penumbral Eclipse happens when the moon enters the penumbra or outer faint shadow of the Earth. As a result the TOTALITY PHASE will be seen by these areas. 
However for much of Africa,Europe the eclipse last stages will be seen and so it will just be restricted to Partial Lunar Eclipse for them. The Eclipse will not be visible in extreme west africa,South America and Antarctica prominently. 

The Details for India

I must say that cities in the entire Seven sister states,West Bengal,Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of Chattisgarh,Extreme eastern J&K  will have the moon rise before the P1 stage. So they can experience the entire phenomena. 
For Kolkata moon will rise on 10th Dec around 1637hrs (1107UT).


The general timings are - 

P1 = 11:33:32 UT ….. (0503PM IST)…..  Moon enters the penumbra 

U1 = 12:45:42 UT …. (0615PM IST)…..  Moon enters the umbra 

U2 = 14:06:16 UT ….. (0736PM IST) …  TOTAL ECLIPSE BEGINS

GREATEST ECLIPSE - 1432UT ( 0802PM IST)

U3 = 14:57:24 UT …. (0827PM IST) 
U4 = 16:17:58 UT….. (0948PM IST) … MOON LEAVES UMBRA
P4 = 17:30:00 UT …. (11PM IST) …     ECLIPSE ENDS 




WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE SEE (INCLUDING NAGPUR) ?

Nagpur Special*

For Nagpur, the moon rise on 10th is at 1723hrs IST (1153hrs UT)
Moon enters the Umbra - 0615PM IST 
Total Eclipse Begins - 0736PM IST
MAXIMUM - 0802PM IST
Total Eclipse Ends- 0827PM IST
Partial Eclipse ends - 0948PM IST
Penumbral Eclipse ends- 11PM IST

THE NEXT TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TO BE VISIBLE FROM NAGPUR WILL BE ON 31ST JAN 2018


Apparent View of the Moon and Earth's shadow in Real time at 0802PM IST
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MOON'S APPEARANCE WILL BE SIMILAR AS SHOWN IN THE ABOVE FIGURE

At 1133UT, the moon's appearance will start fading slightly which is often not noticed by naked eyes. This happens as less dark shadow of Earth falls on the Moon. As the Moon starts progressing towards the Umbra Region, from 1406UT, the Totality will start and the Moon's surface will begin to cut off due to the earth and moon will start getting darker but there will be appearance of Red shades will increase and at 1432UT the moon will be BRICK RED. The reverse process will again follow as the moon leaves umbra completely at 1618UT. 

The Eclipse will be over at 1730UT! 



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The Myth of Eclipses

The phenomena of eclipse wasn't as enjoyable thousands of years ago as it is today especially to see the copper red moon of totality. 

Chinese people had mentioned first about Solar Eclipse long way back around 2134BC. People of the ancient times used to fear from the eclipse as they thought it was a curse. Even the famous war between Lydians and Medes ended after 5 years at once as the day turned dark due to Solar Eclipse- A phenomena which they didn't understand. 

  For those who don't know the science of the eclipse, lets learn it through Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
 
Q.Ingredients for the recipe of Total Lunar Eclipse?

 A. Sun,Earth,Moon


 Lunar Eclipse occurs when the Earth's shadow falls on the moon.When I am standing in front of a tube light my shadow falls behind ( Say there is a screen). This screen is the moon and I am the earth for consideration

Q.How is the moon's orbit around the Earth?

A.The orbit of the moon around the Earth is an ellipse ( curve obtained when you join letter "u" from top with inverted "u"). Moon's orbit around the earth makes an angle of 5 Degree 14 mins with the ecliptic ( Ecliptic plane is the plane in which Earth orbit's the Sun)

Its like when you consider a clock let the minute hand pointing from 9 to 3 be ecliptic. So the second's hand pointing from 10-4 and 8-2 is the moon's orbit around the earth but in the real three dimension of space.

Thus the second's hand crosses the plane two times.At 9'o clock and 3'o clock.The same is the concept of Moon.
Moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic two times during one orbit referred as nodes( Explained below)
Thus for earth's shadow to be casted on moon or moon blocking the solar disc, the moon must be in a common plane with earth and sun i.e have co-planar orbits.

 Q. When Moon crosses the ecliptic twice a month, then why there isn't eclipse twice a month?

      A. Consider the below figure

COURTESY- DWIGHT ENNIS


The Nodal axis is a line joining the two nodes. That is for eclipse moon must be at one node which it does twice in its orbit BUT the sun ALSO must be at the  other far end of the stick ( Nodal axis). It is supposed to happen every 6 months. 

Q. Why doesn't the Eclipse re-occur at the same date after 6 months?

A.The combined gravitational pull between Earth-Moon-Sun creates a wobble in that nodal axis and so it oscillates. Due to this the dates of eclipses aren't repeated at the same dates.

Q. WHY MOON APPEARS RED SHADE DURING TOTALITY?

A. When the Totality stage arrives, the moon enters much of the Darker portion ( UMBRA) of earth's shadow. Logically one says that during maximum eclipse, the moon's view must be blocked totally making it dark and invisible for sometime but it doesn't happen. 
It appears Brick or Copper Red ! 
The reason is at this  stage, the sun's light is still traveling in the earth's atmosphere. We know that the WHITE light is composed of seven colors but as per Rayleigh's Scattering, the color having less wavelength will scatter more i.e prominently Violet,Blue and others. Since the Red color has higher wavelength than other colors, its less scattered and so when the sun's light exits the earth's atmosphere the red color spectrum is dominant. This light falls on the moon and we see its reflection. If there is more dust,volcanic ash etc in atmosphere then Moon's color will appear different !  There is a scale known as Danjon Scale which determines the color of moon which will be seen during total lunar eclipse 

The French astronomer Andre-Louis Danjon proposed a useful five point scale for evaluating the visual appearance and brightness of the Moon during total lunar eclipses. 'L' values for various luminosities are defined as follows:

     L = 0     Very dark eclipse.                Moon almost invisible, especially at mid-totality.       L = 1     Dark Eclipse, gray or brownish in coloration.                Details distinguishable only with difficulty.       L = 2     Deep red or rust-colored eclipse.                Very dark central shadow, while outer edge of umbra                is relatively bright.       L = 3     Brick-red eclipse.                Umbral shadow usually has a bright or yellow rim.       L = 4     Very bright copper-red or orange eclipse.                Umbral shadow has a bluish, very bright rim.
Courtesy- Arvind Paranjpye

Q.Is Lunar Eclipse SAFE to Watch?

A. Absolutely YES!
Infact I will encourage the readers to hunt with their telescopes or binoculars or simple naked eyes to watch this celestial beauty..

Q.Is Lunar Eclipse connected to any Natural Calamity,disasters etc. 
A. Absolutely not. 

Q.What is the speed of the moon during this projection through Earth's shadow?

A. Around 1.6km/sec 


More questions are welcomed at- 


Monday, November 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Thane update

Top-
The Precipitable Water imagery shows rich moisture ( brown to orange color around cyclonic spin i.e Thane Storm. The Dark blue or purple shows very very low PW or moisture content )



Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
1130PM IST,28th Nov 2011


Tropical Storm Thane update 





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The latest IR satellite imagery indicates that TS Thane has exposed convection with cloud tops around -80C. The convection cycle is peaking now due to favored conditions at 15N,68.2E where SST is 29C.
The IR-NHC clearly indicates that horizontal shearing to the North and North-West of LLC has affected the compactness of the system and it has started disintegrating in that region.

Though the persisting 30kt poleward outflow and some 10kt low level convergence is assisting the central convection,

IT IS NOTED THAT THE PATH OF TS THANE HAS BEEN CHANGED THAN WHAT WAS BEING EXPECTED. THE EARLIER PATH COMPRISED OF A CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH WEST COAST OF INDIA AND LANDFALL IN SINDH.

"BUT THE 12Z RUNS ALONG WITH PAST FEW TIMES HAVE BEEN CLEAR THAT THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE ( ANTICYCLONE) AT LOW LEVELS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48HRS.

SO THANE WILL MOVE NORTH WEST INSTEAD OF NORTH.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA INDICATES THAT THERE IS A PRESENCE OF COOLER SST AND ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN CENTRAL REGION. THE ATTACHED IMAGE IS OF THE PW WHICH SHOWS LACK OF MOISTURE AFTER 24HRS FOR SYSTEM

CONSIDERING ABOVE TWO CASES,
TS THANE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 24HRS DUE TO
HIGHLY SHEARED ENV,DECREASING MOISTURE AND SST

ITS TRACK IS VIRTUALLY TOWARDS OMAN BUT IT WILL DIE BEFORE VIRTUALLY REACHING OMAN.

SO PEOPLE OF OMAN
NOT A SINGLE THREAT!

METD WEATHER FORECAST ( VALID +24HRS)
DEVELOPMENT STRENGTH - MODERATE
CAT 1 CYCLONE FORMATION - VERY POOR

Friday, November 25, 2011

Significant Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Arabian Sea

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

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AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST POST, THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM/CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED


The Visible and Infrared observations indicate presence of wedge area of flaring convection in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka given the latest peak -50C cloud tops in the region especially in the region north of MALE.
Model forecast guidance has improved a lot and is in consistent agreement that persisting area of low pressure  at 4.9N,78.3E has robust potential for organizing into a good tropical depression system.


GFS guidance form CIMSS suggests that the area of flaring convection near the low level circulation center in in the sea having SST of 30C. The IR-BD and IR-NHC spectrum imagery implies that a wide area of convection is organizing North-West of MALE given the favored themal condition.
The system is facing very good upper air divergence of 40kt peak and low level convergence of 5-10kt in relaxed sheared environment. The persisting upper air conditions has helped the system's convection to gain momentum and the developing LLC will enable in the improvement of geometry of the system.

A note from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates presence of 25-30kt wind near the LLCC and MSLP of 1001mb.

I will not be surprised to find REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IN NEXT 24HRS CONSIDERING THE FAVORED CONDITIONS


Extremely Active Phase of MJO-
As seen from the above EWP map of Climate Prediction Center,a very active "WET PHASE" of MJO is landing in the Indian Subcontinent. Its very obvious that under the influence of this favored phase, the low pressure region mentioned above shall intensify. 




Intensity,Track and Effects


The Model guidance is fluctuating in the intensity of the system but considering the assistance from MJO, it does appear that the system will get converted to a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Cyclone. 
It shall be too early to go with Cat 1 Cyclone however the probability of it can't be ruled out. 


The Track of the system shall be in the Arabian Sea initially (26th Nov) passing close to Kerala. 
The system will move OFFSHORE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE SHORE thus limiting the rainfall totals in the continent. 
Due to the less resistance from coastal dry air, the system shall intensify on its way reaching in the North Arabian Sea offshore Gujarat this month end. 
The upper air winds ( Jet Streams) will then curve the path of this system which will bend it over North Gujarat or so. However we must wait till more details arrive




The possible effects will be 
Rough Seas in Eastern Arabian Sea offshore the West Coast of India
Strong Winds and GALE at the coasts ( West India)
Moderate Rainfall at the coastal regions 


( ALERT MAP SHALL BE PUT ON SOON)


WINTER BLOW OFF!
If this system happens to bend towards India, then it will deflect the North,North Western winds and due to its influence the winds shall be westerly to SW. This will lead to rise of night temperature in Western India and Central India also...


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Weather expected to TAKE A TURN IN INDIA.

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The overall 2011 Winter is in a smooth stage with temperatures making a sharp dip at minimum near the west coast of Maharashtra and interiors like Pune and settling around 15C at min here in Nagpur.
This year's November has been overall DRY as compared to the last year when it was remarkably wet due to a coupled effect of La Nina and enhanced phase of Madden Jullian Oscillation.

This month, the MJO phase turned down to DRY or INACTIVE phase which assisted in the cool air incursion and spread in India. However the GFS models are continuing to predict a "STORMY OUTLOOK THIS MONTH END"

The Empirical Wave Propogation from Climate Prediction Center is indicating an arriving ENHANCED or WET phase of MJO by 27th Nov 2011.


At the same time, the GFS forecast models are indicating "A JUST FORMED LOW PRESSURE AROUND 5N,80E" IN THE INDIAN OCEAN" will cross Sri Lanka and enter the Arabian Sea around 25-26th Nov 2011. The Long Range models continue to predict that it will reach intensification stage offshore the West Coast of India due to conducive environment.

If it comes true, then Western India will experience HEAVY RAINS STARTING FROM 26-27TH NOV 2011. THE RAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGES WHICH WILL PURELY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW

INCREASED MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIA
IF THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THEN THERE WILL BE A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FROM THIS MONTH END AND WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO AROUND MID DECEMBER


THERE WILL BE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE LEVEL IN MAHARASHTRA. 
THE WINDS ALSO WILL RE-DIRECT FROM SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH FOR NAGPUR AND ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA


THIS ALSO WILL TRIGGER RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND SOME PARTS OF MAHARASHTRA AND TOTALLY BLOW AWAY THE WINTER FOR SOME DAYS


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES RELATING TO IT