Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The massive Tropical Storm BOB D1 ( IMD Designation - TS Thane) is heading towards Chennai rapidly. The weather models indicate that the storm is continuing its fight against the Moderately Sheared Environment of V Shear of 15kt which has started affecting the symmetry and the intensity of the system. As of 0900AM IST today, the system has cloud top temp ( PEAK) of -60C and is situated in the sea having SST 28C.
Multispectral Satellite imagery confirms the weakening of the system and JTWC designates as of today morning ( 9am IST) that system is 420NM East of Chennai.
Considering the other parameters, it does appear that lower convergence of 20kt in presence of rich moisture has continued to fuel the system due to favored upper air poleward outflow.
Forecast-
It does appear to me that the system HAS REACHED A MID OF PEAK INTENSIFICATION PROCESS today with peak winds of 45kt right now as of 40kt at past 21 hours. Presence of cooler SST,less moist environment ahead shall begin the WEAKENING PROCESS .
IMD and other weather bloggers are expecting the system to reach a Severe Cyclonic Storm status or Cat 1 which I believe will not happen.
BOB D1 shall weaken from around tonight and reach around Chennai on 29th Dec evening to night hours as a Tropical Depression or a marginal Tropical Storm based on Saffir Simspon Scale.
People of Chennai must watch out from the system especially from Moderate Rains and Winds and Rough seas for coastal areas !
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
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