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The Precipitable Water imagery shows rich moisture ( brown to orange color around cyclonic spin i.e Thane Storm. The Dark blue or purple shows very very low PW or moisture content )
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
1130PM IST,28th Nov 2011
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The latest IR satellite imagery indicates that TS Thane has exposed convection with cloud tops around -80C. The convection cycle is peaking now due to favored conditions at 15N,68.2E where SST is 29C.
The IR-NHC clearly indicates that horizontal shearing to the North and North-West of LLC has affected the compactness of the system and it has started disintegrating in that region.
Though the persisting 30kt poleward outflow and some 10kt low level convergence is assisting the central convection,
IT IS NOTED THAT THE PATH OF TS THANE HAS BEEN CHANGED THAN WHAT WAS BEING EXPECTED. THE EARLIER PATH COMPRISED OF A CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH WEST COAST OF INDIA AND LANDFALL IN SINDH.
"BUT THE 12Z RUNS ALONG WITH PAST FEW TIMES HAVE BEEN CLEAR THAT THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE ( ANTICYCLONE) AT LOW LEVELS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48HRS.
SO THANE WILL MOVE NORTH WEST INSTEAD OF NORTH.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA INDICATES THAT THERE IS A PRESENCE OF COOLER SST AND ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN CENTRAL REGION. THE ATTACHED IMAGE IS OF THE PW WHICH SHOWS LACK OF MOISTURE AFTER 24HRS FOR SYSTEM
CONSIDERING ABOVE TWO CASES,
TS THANE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 24HRS DUE TO
HIGHLY SHEARED ENV,DECREASING MOISTURE AND SST
ITS TRACK IS VIRTUALLY TOWARDS OMAN BUT IT WILL DIE BEFORE VIRTUALLY REACHING OMAN.
SO PEOPLE OF OMAN
NOT A SINGLE THREAT!
METD WEATHER FORECAST ( VALID +24HRS)
DEVELOPMENT STRENGTH - MODERATE
CAT 1 CYCLONE FORMATION - VERY POOR
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