Massive Thunderstorm hits Nagpur with heavy rains

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As forecasted in the previous few posts, 

The incursion of moisture along with presence of strong lift and CAPE triggered convection multiple times

At morning around 0410 hrs light rains were reported ( Which were very very less) 

Then the weather continued to be cloudy with a thunderstorm at NW of Nagpur. It turned clear around 11PM. This basically provided the heat for the thunderstorms to fire

Intense Convection fired around 1200hrs in Nagpur while a system became matured at triggered rainfall with an outflow boundary extending till Nagpur in the evening. 

The outflow boundary caused cold winds from the NE to N side around 7-13km/hr. 

After the sunset,the thunderstorm headed to Nagpur and around 1930hrs, Heavy rains with a severe thunderstorm was reported. 

The thunderstorm was very severe that around 7-8 ELECTRIC BOLTS COVERING THE ENTIRE SKY WERE SPOTTED BY MYSELF WITH STRONG WINDS OF 22KM/HR

TEMPERATURE IN NAGPUR INSTANTLY DROPPED BY 9C IN AN HOUR

 IN BETWEEN 1910-2010 HRS FROM 32C TO 23C 

Rains were very heavy. DATA RECORDED BY METD WEATHER PROBE INDICATE AROUND 3mm RAINS TILL 2200HRS 

Personal Note- 

"This was on of the memorable setups I had seen in my life. There were four distinct setups throughout the day. 

Extreme Lightning Bolts covering the entire sky were seen which are similar to those graphically displayed on the METD WEATHER profile picture"

WITH NEARLY A  MONTH FROM THE INAUGURATION, RADAR PRODUCTS ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE ON INTERNET AT THE IMD WEBSITES. 

SUCH NON-SEASONAL SETUPS REQUIRE PRECISE MEASUREMENTS OF THE DOPPLER RADAR

- A.Deoras

-- 
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Via-Email Blog

Light Rains reported in Nagpur. chance of Thunderstorm persists

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post, the incursion of moisture already lead to precipitation ( Light to Very light rainfall ) in Nagpur today morning at around 0410hrs.

The SKEWT plot for the morning indicating the Precipitable Water around 0.84inch meaning low moisture content

K index or KI index which determines the Convective Potential is around Moderate level

and the TOTAL TOTALS plot indicates likely thunderstorm

The Equivalent Potential Temp ( Theta E) is around 316J which is sufficient to fuel thunderstorms.

Considering all the parameters-

THERE IS UPGRADATION

Upgrade to 15% chance

There is a 15% chance of Rain and Thunderstorm ( On max 30%) i.e 50% out of 100% around Nagpur throughout the day

10% chance of T.Storm in Nagpur

The Lifted Condensation Level ( Is around 10,000 ft which is the base of clouds)
Moisture also is favorable with lifting mechanism.

Rainfall shall be isolated followed by a Thunderstorm.

Thunderstorm expected in Nagpur on Thursday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning-Probability of Thunderstorm in city

With the presence of west winds at the mid level of atmosphere ( Around 18000ft from sea level ) aka 500mb region, some moisture incursion shall happen from the Arabian Sea on Thursday.

With the arrival of moisture at around 500-600mb, there will be cloud cover since afternoon as there is enough moisture aloft.

Cloud cover shall be light from afternoon hours of Wednesday

Due to a lifting mechanism ( Lift Index upto -4) the parcel of air shall be lifted adiabatically reaching a saturation level at the LCL.

LCL on Thursday is expected to be around 730mb ( Around 9000ft from ground)

This shall be the base of the cloud.

The instability shall be marginal and capable of triggering thunderstorm with day time heating.

This shall be Thursday night scenario with a thunderstorm and scanty rain

Announcing 2011 Summer Forecast for India

The 2011 Summer Forecast for India with the latest ENSO conditions and analysis of it shall be put on the blog on Sunday,20th March 2011

-Akshay Deoras

40C in Nagpur!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

With just 24 hrs from the onset of Westerlies at lower to mid levels across most of the India, Temperature in Nagpur soared up to 40C as predicted by METD WEATHER.

The Maximum temperature was recorded at around 0410PM with the Relative humidity of 19% ONLY.

The eastward propogation of the west winds in Central India led to Uniform distribution temperatures in Cent India and Western India leading to a relax in Max temp in Mumbai from apx 41C to 36C today.

Ahmedabad continued to remain hot and witnessed maximum temperature of 41C

Temperature of 34C was reported in New Delhi.

The winds shall continue bringing dry air from the west and lead to the rise of temperatures across the nation!

MONITOR THE HEAT WAVE BY CLICKING HERE AND SEEING TEMP OF 25 PLACES IN INDIA

Where will Nuclear radiations from Fukushima plant go?

Courtesy-BBC

SINCE THE RADIATION IS AT THE LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE, WE CONSIDER ALL PARAMETERS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OF ATMOSPHERE BELOW

PARTICLES SHALL NOT CIRCULATE GLOBALLY LIKE THAT OF VOLCANIC ASH DUE TO ATTAINING THE HEIGHT OF JET STREAM

The ongoing release of radiation from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant has affected a wide area including almost entire Japan with a 20km radius evacuation zone around the Fukushima plant

and 30km radius no flying zone and advisory of remaining indoor!

The radiation level inside the Fukushima plant reached 0.4 Sievert on Tuesday.

Symptom benchmarks

( Courtesy- Wikipedia)

Symptoms of acute radiation (within one day):

• 0 – 0.25 Sv (0 - 250 mSv): None
• 0.25 – 1 Sv (250 - 1000 mSv): Some people feel nausea and loss of appetite; bone marrow, lymph nodes, spleen damaged.
• 1 – 3 Sv (1000 - 3000 mSv): Mild to severe nausea, loss of appetite, infection; more severe bone marrow, lymph node, spleen damage; recovery probable, not assured.
• 3 – 6 Sv (3000 - 6000 mSv): Severe nausea, loss of appetite; hemorrhaging, infection, diarrhea, skin peels, sterility; death if untreated.
• 6 – 10 Sv (6000 - 10000 mSv): Above symptoms plus central nervous system impairment; death expected.
• Above 10 Sv (10000 mSv): Incapacitation and death.

Thus a level of 0.40 is very minor as compared to other high values.

Winds around the Fukushima plant-

With the development of a strong tropical low NE of mainland of Japan, surface and adjacent surface winds have picked up right now in the nation especially the eastern coasts.

Japan is right now recording winds upto 30km/hr from NORTH direction with the temperature ( At time of Post) around 3C

Whereas in Fukushima,the winds are upto 17km/hr from NW with negative temp of -4C.

With the NE propogation of the low, surface winds in the Fukushima peaked at 1100hrs ( LT) of 37km/hr FROM WEST reaching to max gust of 57km/hr. The air pressure was around 995mb which indicate the vicinity of the low pressure.

As depicted by the weather map by Japan Meteorological Agency, the low is a 970mb system!

Due to this low pressure,THE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM NORTH,NORTH-WEST AT FUKUSHIMA AREA.

ALL TIME MENTIONED BELOW ARE UTC

** READERS FROM JAPAN SHALL ADD 9 HOURS TO THE FORECAST TIMES

WINDS SHALL BE AROUND 25KT ON ( THURSDAY)

WITH THE OVERALL SETUP PERMISSIBLE FOR NORTH,NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS TILL EARLY FRIDAY,

WINDS SHALL REGULATE FROM NORTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA ( 1027MB) REACHES SW OF JAPAN

THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH JAPAN ON FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD MAKING THE WINDS FROM NORTH AND TURNING FROM EAST TO FOR SHORT PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS EAST, WINDS SHALL AGAIN BE FROM NORTH,NORTH-WEST

CONCLUSION-

IF THE RADIATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD AROUND FUKUSHIMA FOR THE COMING DAYS WHERE ALREADY RADIATIONS HAVE BEEN RELEASED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,THE SURFACE AND LOW WINDS SHALL BE PUSHING THE MATTER INTO THE PACIFIC THUS SHALL NOT AFFECT THE MAIN LAND OF JAPAN

** - A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE WINDS ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSIT.

IT SHALL PARTLY SEND SOME MATTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN****

**** - UNCERTAINTY EXISTS

** PARTS OF ASIA SHALL NOT BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE RADIATION.

** NO THREAT TO USA.

Severe heat to approach India in the coming period!

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

With a part feel of summer in early March due to a redirection of the mid- low level winds from West, temperatures relaxed ( max) into the 30s range across most of India and (min) in the lower 20s.

The winds regulated from North-South due to formation of low pressure in the bay of bengal travelling west towards Sri Lanka.

The low pressure was expected to travel in a relatively less time but due to the slow movement in the water, the low is now expected to hit the Sri lanka eastern coast on Friday-Saturday

Due to the collaboration of High-Low pressure systems, the winds at 850mb are nearly Northerly. This continues the cooling at evening period-night-early morning across Indian plains especially in the Central India part where max effect is being seen

Min temp was around 18C in Nagpur ( Early morning on 14th March) while was around 16C in Pune and around 15C in Bhopal

Maximum is still above 35C but not near to 40C yet.

Forecast-

With the more westerly travel of the low crossing Sri Lanka, effect of the low shall disappear

Winds at low and mid level across Central and Southern India shall become easterly and then Westerly by next week ( Monday).

This shall permit a sudden rise of Max temp across Central India,Western India,Southern India and bring temperatures in Northern India ( Max) upto 35C ( In northern plains)

With a Western Disturbance approaching and likely striking North India by Saturday ( 20th Mar) some rainfall,cloudy sky will pull down maximum temperature in hilly areas ( Srinagar also where its 20C now)

Also areas of Punjab,Haryana etc. shall see some cooling from this weekend ( For limited period apx 24-48hrs only)

After that Mercury shall rise!

Nagpur temperature forecast- MAX AND MIN

DATE MAX MIN

14/03 38C 20C

15/03 38C 21C

16/03 39C 22C

17/03 39C 24C

18/03 *40C 25C

19/03 40C 25C