Severe Weather continues across Eastern India,Bangladesh while Central India HEATS UP

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER


PENCH NATIONAL PARK,MADHYA PRADESH
8TH APRIL 2012

As was mentioned in the past Friday's update, the ongoing Severe Thunderstorms in the Eastern India and  Bangladesh stretching upto North East India had some severe RADAR signatures today. The Radar products from Agartala clearly depicted violent thunderstorms in the region of India-Bangladesh border prominently with cloud tops over 14kms in height and cloud top temperature ( CTT) over -60C!!
Check the below RADAR image of Agartala as of 1401GMT


The above Max Z product clearly shows violent thunderstorms just West,South-East of Dhaka and many isolated thunderstorms over the Tibetian region in the North of Agartala...


The above CTT imagery shows extreme CB clouds as of 1630UT over North-East India.... The situation has been worst for Bangladesh where already around 17 people have been killed due to severe weather since it began a few days ago

Below is a news report  I found-

DHAKA, Bangladesh (AP) -- News reports say storms with heavy rains and strong winds have killed at least 17 people and injured dozens more in Bangladesh.

Dhaka's Prothom Alo and Janakantha newspapers say Friday's storms damaged mud-and-straw huts and felled trees in 10 of the country's 64 districts.

The reports say most of the deaths occurred from lightning. Some victims were buried under their collapsed houses.

Official confirmation of the reports was not immediately available.

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Forecast-

Extreme Thunderstorms will be continuing in a region starting from West Bengal stretching into Bangladesh and North-East India atleast for a week! Favorable conditions including the high instability is the key for such severe weather events!

People in these areas shall remain alert especially precautions must be taken from Lightning,Heavy Rains,Winds and Hailstorm/Tornadoes ( if happen) 

*** SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHALL BE SEVERE AND DAMAGE PRODUCING****

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Central India HEATS UP!!!

*** Wardha,Chandrapur ( Maharashtra) record maximum temperature of 43.1C ( IMD) ON 8TH APRIL 2012 ***

*** NAGPUR RECORDS TEMPERATURE OF 41.1C ( IMD) OR 43C ( PWS) TODAY***

The Summer is in a full swing in Central India as the winds from the west are getting a good scope to bring the dry air as the system of low pressures across India coupled with the anticyclone ( High Pressure) in Arabian Sea continues to pump moisture and boosted winds! The quantum of moisture has reduced for some days but shall increase again after the mid of this week thus bringing more clouds and convective activity in Central India. 

Above- Extraordinary heating over Central India causing the low pressures as shown in the image contine to pull moisture and subsequent heat adding to maximum temperatures

Another western disturbance will affect North India within 24hrs from now

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES---

Strong Thunderstorms,Heavy Rains possible in Central India on Thu-Fri

REFERENCE MAP TO DESCRIBE THREAT LEVEL AS MENTIONED BELOW

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A round of severe weather can be expected in the Central India region from Thu-Fri ( 21 and 22nd Apr 2011)

For Thursday,21st Apr 2011

Severe storms are expected to fire at the nose of the southern extent of jet stream aloft as the surface low continues to intensify in the region with the MSLP as per Thai Meteorological Dept of 1002mb! As the surface low deepens, it shall pull moisture from the Southern Region and South Western Region along with the Low Level Jets of 24-32kt thus providing the moisture in the persistent unstable atmosphere

The GFS 12z runs indicates upto 1000J/Kg CAPE present over Central India while the same timed Skew T indicate upto 500J/Kg joules in AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT

With enough instability to support convection, and INSANE LIFTING ( LIFTED INDEX UPTO -5!!), Severe thunderstorms capable of producing Heavy Rains,Lightning,Strong Winds,Sudden drop of temperature shall be very likely

The main concern is for the following areas

Nagpur and the 100km circle radius as shown on Doppler Images

Areas around Gondia where strong CAPE is present

Isolated areas NE of Seoni in Madhya Pradesh

West of Amravati

** All areas in 200km radius of Nagpur as the center

Threat-

Threat is for Rains,Strong Winds,Hails and strong lightning during late evening into night

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For Friday- 22nd Apr 2011

As more moisture is dumped on Friday, with comparitively less instability

threat shall continue for Heavy Rains

These areas include -

Nagpur,Central and Southern Madhya Pradesh and other areas 200km radius of Nagpur ( Excluding the areas beyond 50km west of Nagpur)

** Flash Flooding also possible in areas like Southern MP,Vidarbha many areas in the 100km circle of Nagpur

Preparation -

Keep yourselves dry using raincoats and umbrellas all the time.

Stick to METD WEATHER forecasts @ facebook.com/deorasakshay

Don't stand under tree during lightning

METD WEATHER ALERT_

Areas in the 150km zone from Nagpur as center are specially alerted for chance of strong thunderstorm on Thursday followed by rains on Friday

MARK 5 ALERT in effect till 0600hrs,Sat

Additional rainfall also shall hit Chattisgarh,Western Orissa during this period

METD WEATHER BLOG COMPLETES 17000 PAGE VIEWS FROM MAY 2010 TILL NOW

Strongest Storms possible in Central India on Saturday

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Concerning- High Risk of Severe Storms across Vidarbha on Saturday ( 16th Apr 2011)

Persisting High-Low pressure collaboration of air pressure in Arabian Sea and Mainland of Central India is already pushing April to ITS LIMITS !

With a Hailstorm on 9th Apr 2011, Strong Thunderstorm today in Nagpur ( METD WEATHER captures around 7 lightning bolts with tremendous lightning flash so powerful to make the night appear as day! )

( Video available by Monday)

Forecast-

Severe weather event is expected to unfurl with some of the best conditions together at place I have ever seen in my life for India!

The moist parcel of air shall be lifted robustly with steep lapse rate by afternoon when convection temperature reaches in Vidarbha area. The Lifted Index ( LI) are over -3 indicating presence of a Robust Lift having over 338K Potential Energy release ( Theta E)

Due to synoptic lifting of parcel of air and presence of moist air for saturation, Convection shall be assisted by presence of a Strong Day time lifting adding to the CAPE of over 432J on surface and equivalent in Unstable layers.

The 12z,GFS guidance confirms that lower layers of atmosphere shall be unstable with the Cloud Condensation Level ( CCL) at around 720mb ( 9000FT) where as the forecasted Equilibrium Level is around 35,000 ft ( Cloud Tops) in Uncapped environment.

K= 37

TT= 48

PW ( cm) = 3.13

This means that the towering CB shall have rapid intensification shortly after convection fires in the afternoon period

** THE STORMS SHALL QUICKLY MODIFY INTO DANGEROUS CB CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAILS, RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS

** SPECIAL THREAT FOR CLOUD TO CLOUD OR CLOUD- GROUND LIGHTNING

WITH RAPID LIGHTNING INTERVAL **

** To which area there is threat?

The primary concern seems to be areas in 100 km circle from Nagpur where there are best convective potentials.

** Areas around Chandrapur

Threat is limited to areas around Amravati, Chinwada and all

** How to prepare for it?

The best way to face Saturday setup is by keeping a raincoat/umbrella throughout the day. Though it w'd be CLEAR and warm in morning- afternoon, after convection happens weather w'd change drastically.

Also, as soon as an alert is issued on facebook.com/deorasakshay or you see a lightning bolt, switch off and unplug electric devices