METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Bay of Bengal Update-
As was expected, the BOB system ( hence to be called as Tropical Depression) is churning in the Southern Bay of Bengal.
The above morning IR-BD imagery shows the exposed LLCC centred somewhere in the 9.5N,83.5E which is ~ 530km SE of Chennai.
So far the max sustained winds are around 55km/hr with MSLP ~ 1002mb.
The system has intensified since the last post due to favoured conditions. The model analysis suggests that the system is moving in a region of 30kt upper air divergence and around 15kt low level convergence with the V wind shear to be around 10kt.
Based on the models and observations, it appears that the system which at present is a Tropical Depression will INTENSIFY to a marginal Tropical Storm status ( With max sustained winds of around 65kt )
As a Tropical Storm, it shall head for a landfall in a region
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Bay of Bengal Update-
As was expected, the BOB system ( hence to be called as Tropical Depression) is churning in the Southern Bay of Bengal.
So far the max sustained winds are around 55km/hr with MSLP ~ 1002mb.
The system has intensified since the last post due to favoured conditions. The model analysis suggests that the system is moving in a region of 30kt upper air divergence and around 15kt low level convergence with the V wind shear to be around 10kt.
Based on the models and observations, it appears that the system which at present is a Tropical Depression will INTENSIFY to a marginal Tropical Storm status ( With max sustained winds of around 65kt )
As a Tropical Storm, it shall head for a landfall in a region
Between Ammapatam to Cuddalore ( Tamil Nadu)
ON Tuesday,Oct 30 2012 night period to Oct 31 2012 Wednesday early morning hours-
(10PM IST- 0400hrs IST)
IMPACTS-
* ROUGH SEA WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TAMIL NADU COAST TILL 1ST NOV 2012
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WITNESSED in ENTIRE TAMIL NADU, PONDICHERRY ( PUDUCHERRY),COASTAL BORDERING ANDHRA PRADESH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND ENDING AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREAS IN CYCLONE's PATH AND ADJOINING AREAS AS SHOWN IN THE MAP AND THEN STRETCHING AS NORTH AS HYDERABAD on 31st Oct 2012 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES. MODERATE RAINS IN KARNATAKA AS WELL.
* CHENNAI ALSO WILL WITNESS HEAVY RAINS,WINDS IN THE PERIOD
* Flooding Potential across INTERIOR TAMIL NADU
After the landfall, the depression will move inland and will be steered by the upper air winds which will move the system North-North East wards on Oct 31 due to which the rainfall shall spread into Karnataka,Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra and the entire Eastern coastal states on 1-2nd Nov 2012.
The rainfall then shall spread further reaching Northern Maharashtra-Central MP latitude by Nov 2-3 2012 due to which Nagpur will get rainfall in a period between 1-4th Nov 2012 with cloud skies. ( For exact details refer METD WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE) with highest chances of rains on Nov 2-3.
II- Arabian System-
The recent GFS models have turned a lot since the last post and now they aren't showing any chance of Arabian System to form or it merging with the Bay Storm/Depression.
Infact as was reported on METD WEATHER Facebook, the system faced a lot of problems on Oct 28th i.e yesterday as there was no proper low level convergence to grip the convection.
However things changed today and lets have a look-
Animation-
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=IO962012&starting_image=2012IO96_4KMIRIMG_201210282200.GIF
Above-
The top most image is of 28th Oct 0730GMT where the system faced a lot of problems due to lack of LL convergence. The below image is of Oct 29 0730GMT showing that the system has organised a lot since last 24hr given the developing Low level convergence of around 10kt.
The system continues to remain in an excellent poleward outflow ( associated with the Bay system) of around 30kt and favoured SST to support robust convection. The wind shears are also relaxed (vertical).
Here is a look at the latest precipitation embedded in the system-
One can observe that outer rain bands have formed and there seems to be a developing LLCC with more banding from the Southern periphery of the system
Thus, I do expect that the Arabian Sea system will intensify further given the excellent conditions available. However, there is a decreasing confidence at the moment whether the system will head towards Gujarat or not.
Considering the model runs and vicinity of the Bay system, it appears that the Arabian Sea system shall head NE gradually and move inland somewhere in Karnataka when the Bay system will be present. So in such a case, the chance of Arabian System forming into a Tropical Cyclone is very very less. However it can get converted into a Tropical Depression, move NE and move inwards in the Western Coast of India
As a result, the warnings issued previously for Gujarat STAND CANCELLED
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