METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
STS 133 Ground Weather Forecast-
Forecast for Wednesday,9th March 2011- TARGETED LANDING DAY FOR SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY
Space Shuttle Discovery is expected to land at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility on 9th March, Wed at 1158EST (16:58 UTC) 2228hrs IST on the orbit 202.
Below are the conditions acceptable for landing of a shuttle as prescribed by the Space Flight Meteorology group
Simplified Daylight End-of-Mission (EOM) Landing at the Kennedy Space Center
Weather Parameter and Their Limits
| Cloud ceiling height | >= 8,000 ft |
| Visibility | >= 5 statute miles |
| Crosswind | <= 15 knots |
| Headwind | <= 25 knots |
| Tailwind | <= 15 knots (peak) <= 10 knots (2 minute average) |
| Precipitation and thunderstorms | Not allowed within 30 nautical miles of the landing runway. |
| Turbulence | <= Moderate |
Additional Requirements
1. No detached non-transparent thunderstorm anvil clouds (less than 3 hours old)
within 20 nautical miles of the landing runway. 2. Peak winds may not exceed the
average wind speed by more than 10 knots.
Forecast by METD WEATHER of 9th Mar 2011 for Kennedy Space Center,FL
On Wednesday, 9th March 2011 weather is expected to be CALM around the Kennedy Space Center,FL with a high pressure area in SW of Florida
Technical aspects-
Cloud Ceiling Height-
Cloud Ceiling height has been a primary concern for the landing day Wednesday.
The previous few model RUNS of GFS and NAM were showing low height of Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) indicating that cloud bases ( ceiling) to be less than 8,000ft which is the prescribed limit by Space Flight Meteorology Group
However, recent model analysis have shown that cloud ceiling shall be unlimited to high level with 30% cloud cover on Wednesday. Cloud Cover of 50% is not permissible with nature of clouds to be Convective.
Thus cloud cover on Wednesday shall be less with very high cloud ceiling
This parameter is "ON HOLD" AS PER METD WEATHER SINCE MORE CONVINCING PRODUCTS ARE REQUIRED TO ACCEPT THE FACT.
2] Winds-
Permissible tail wind has to be less than 15kt.
Tail wind during landing time is expected to be around 7kt
This parameter is "GO" as the cross wind is also light with head wind.
3] Precipitation and Thunderstorms not allowed within 30nm of runway
No Thunderstorm/Precipitation is expected on 9th March morning period around KSC so this parameter is "GO"
4] Weak turbulence.Parameter is "GO"
Thus the weather forecast stands for "GO" with primary concern of Cloud Ceiling thus making 80% Acceptable conditions.
Weather forecast is GO for Edward AFB and White sands for Wed
Weather Forecast is NO GO for KSC on Thu ( 10th March 2011) due to possible thunderstorms and lightning.
Next report-
0500hrs GMT,8th March 2011
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